--- title: "Portugal: climate risk profile and hazard map · Criora" description: "Portugal: risk 32 of 100, low. Main threats: coastal floods and tsunamis. From World Bank, INFORM and ND-GAIN." url: "https://criora.com/atlas/PRT" language: "en" --- # Portugal Climate risk profile and hazard map Portugal: risk 32 of 100, low. Region : Europe Subregion : Southern Europe Income : High 1. Very low 2. Low 3. Medium 4. High 5. Critical Some hazards here are strong, but the score also counts how well the country copes with them, so overall risk is low. ## Main threats | Score | Hazard | | Risk | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4.6 of 10 | Coastal flood | | Medium | | 4.3 of 10 | Tsunami | | Medium | [6 more threats listed below: river flood (3.8 of 10), earthquake (3.4 of 10), drought (2.9 of 10), epidemics (2.1 of 10), conflict (0.5 of 10), cyclone wind (0.0 of 10).](https://criora.com/atlas/PRT#threats) INFORM scores run from 0 to 10: the more often and the harder a hazard strikes, and the more people live where it reaches, the higher. Future : [+3.0 °C by 2080 compared with 1970-2000 if emissions keep rising; the sea at the coast +77 cm by 2100 compared with 1995-2014](https://criora.com/atlas/PRT#future) Cities : [Lisbon, Porto](https://criora.com/atlas/PRT#cities) Hazard map [Hazard map: Earthquakes: how hard the ground shakes in a quake with a one in ten chance of happening within 50 years. Source: GSHAP.](https://criora.com/?lat=38.724669&lon=-9.146812&layer=seismic_hazard%3A%3Apga_475&band=1) Not felt Severe Earthquakes: how hard the ground shakes in a quake with a one in ten chance of happening within 50 years. Source: GSHAP. Not drawn here, since a map of the whole country cannot show them: coastal floods, tsunamis, river floods. [Open the full map](https://criora.com/?lat=38.724669&lon=-9.146812&layer=seismic_hazard%3A%3Apga_475&band=1) Also on the map: [droughts](https://criora.com/?lat=38.724669&lon=-9.146812&layer=aqueduct_water_stress%3A%3Adrr&band=1) · [wildfires](https://criora.com/?lat=38.724669&lon=-9.146812&layer=burned_area%3A%3Aclimatology_22yr&band=1) --- ## Live events Disasters still going on and official warnings in force, as the services that track them report. Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami. [Open the live map](https://criora.com/?ref=atlas-pulse) ## Why the score is 32 The overall score is made up of five parts; each part also runs from 0 to 100: the higher, the riskier. Over 5 years: how many points a part moved, plus means it grew. Where no change is shown, the source has no data for five years. 5-year change Risk 1. 34 Climate and energy Low Floods, droughts, cyclones and epidemics, heat and cold, energy and emissions. 2. 36 Nature -0.4 Low Water, food, health, forests and how climate change will hit them; earthquakes and tsunamis. 3. 18 Social Very low Poverty, health, schooling, inequality, conflict and people forced from home. 4. 32 Governance deficit Low How poorly the state, hospitals, communications, roads and disaster planning work. 5. 42 Adaptation deficit +0.2 Medium How unready the economy, government and society are to invest in coping with climate change. ## What other threats are there? How strong each threat is, on the INFORM Risk Index scale from 0 to 10. | Score | Hazard | | Risk | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.8 | River flood | | Low | | 3.4 | Earthquake | | Low | | 2.9 | Drought | | Low | | 2.1 | Epidemics | | Low | | 0.5 | Conflict | | Very low | | 0.0 | Cyclone wind | | Very low | INFORM's epidemic score here is driven most by dengue (4.0 of 10). INFORM does not rate wildfires. Satellites saw about 1.3% of the land here burn in an average year from 2002 to 2023, fires on farmland included (NASA GFED). Conflict is not a natural hazard, but INFORM rates armed conflict in the country, and the risk of more, on the same scale as the others. ## El Niño El Niño is a warming of the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean that comes every two to seven years and shifts rain and temperature in many parts of the world for months. An El Niño is under way. NOAA expects it to be strong to very strong until about March and to last until about May. What past El Niños brought this country in the same months of the year: March-May : Warmer than usual: 11 of the 17 years since 1950 with El Niño in these months; normally about 6. A clear sign. "Warmer than usual" means these months were in the warmest third of all the years on record in this country. Over all years, that happens one year in three. These lines are the country's average. We also read the area around each of its cities: none showed a clear sign that the average does not. [See which other countries El Niño affects](https://criora.com/atlas/el-nino#PRT) ## The climate by 2050 and 2080 Two futures: if emissions keep rising, and if emissions level off. The note at the end names the scenarios behind them. +3.0 °C ### Temperature in 2080 if emissions keep rising 1970-200020502080 If emissions keep rising : +2.1 °C → +3.0 °C If emissions level off : +1.6 °C → +2.0 °C Hottest month: about 4.8 °C warmer by 2080 if emissions keep rising. -131 mm ### Annual precipitation in 2080 if emissions keep rising 1970-200020502080 If emissions keep rising : +3 mm → -131 mm If emissions level off : -57 mm → -71 mm Driest month: about 6 mm less rain by 2080 if emissions keep rising. In 2025 the country averaged about 1,040 mm of rain, so the fall by 2080 comes to about 13% of a year's total. 75% ### Land under high water stress in 2080 if emissions keep rising Now20502080 If emissions keep rising : 61% → 75% If emissions are cut : 53% → 53% Share of the land where people and farms draw much of the water that rivers and aquifers renew, by WRI Aqueduct basins; 48% today. WRI rates each river basin as a whole, so the share moves in steps, up or down, when a large basin crosses the line into high stress. 2.9% ### River flooding in 2080 if emissions keep rising Now20502080 If emissions keep rising : 3% → 2.9% If emissions level off : 2.9% → 3% Share of the land under at least 0.5 m of water in a 100-year river flood, beyond the flood an ordinary year brings, in WRI Aqueduct's global model; 3.1% today. Each future is the median of its five climate models. The country's climate zones Scenario The climate zones stay broadly the same through 2080. If emissions keep rising: what share of the country each climate zone will cover. Now Warm temperate 100% 2050 Warm temperate 100% 2080 Warm temperate 99% Warm temperate: mild wintersDry: little rain Climate zones after Köppen-Geiger (Beck et al. 2023), today and as the climate models project them. The country score shown above does not include them. ### Sea level In a severe flood from the sea of the kind expected once a century, with the sea risen as projected for 2080 if emissions keep rising, and no flood walls, water could cover part of the land around the cities below. Faro · Land under water 23%Water depth on the map 0 m3 m[Open the live map](https://criora.com/?lat=37.0171&lon=-7.9333&view=1&layer=flood_coastal::inundation&band=5)[Natural Earth](https://www.naturalearthdata.com/) #### Coastal sea-level rise 1995-201420502100 If emissions keep rising : +0.24 m → +0.77 m If emissions level off : +0.22 m → +0.57 m #### Cities a flood from the sea could reach Land under water Land under water: the share of the land within 12 km of the city centre that a once-a-century flood from the sea would cover with at least 0.5 m of water in 2080 if emissions keep rising (RCP8.5, the median sea level rise, with sinking land), without flood walls. The sea, rivers and lakes are not counted as land. The model does not carry a storm surge up an estuary or into a harbour, so a port city upriver can read low, and it can reach too far up a wide river delta. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods. Rise compared with 1995-2014: a regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average. Projections from public data: temperature and rainfall from CMIP6 (NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, median of 5 models, against 1970-2000), water stress from WRI Aqueduct 4.0, floods from WRI Aqueduct Floods (rivers: median of its 5 climate models; the sea: median sea level rise) and sea level from IPCC AR6 (median). Temperature and rainfall are changes in average conditions, not counts of extreme days, and none of these figures is a new risk score for a particular place. If emissions keep rising: SSP5-8.5 (RCP8.5 for floods). If emissions level off: SSP2-4.5 (RCP4.5 for river floods). If emissions are cut: SSP1-2.6, for water stress only, the path of cuts WRI projects. ## Cities with a page of their own Cities are listed by population as the UN estimates it, the largest first. The UN counts a city within its limits in some countries and with its suburbs in others; cities of one urban area stand together. The list holds only the cities with a page of their own here. Under each name, the city's main risks and how it compares with 626 large cities worldwide. - [Lisbon](https://criora.com/atlas/PRT/lisbon) · 3.03M people Earthquakes: strong shaking on firm ground (0.14 g), more on soft ground. Higher than 68% of the world's large cities. - [Porto](https://criora.com/atlas/PRT/porto) · 1.33M people Heavy rain: 26 days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025. Higher than 93% of the world's large cities. River floods: up to 58 cm of water at the centre in a 100-year flood. Higher than 93% of the world's large cities. g is the pull of gravity: from about 0.1 g, shaking is strong and can cause light damage to buildings. ## Check the risk at your address Country figures are averages: the risk in your town can be higher or lower. Get the full picture for one address or point in Portugal. ### Any address or town Type an address, city or landmark and see the risk at that exact point. or[pick a point on the map →](https://criora.com/) ## Portugal in global context Ranked against similar countries, from the safest to the most at risk. Click any country to open its page. ### Southern Europe 2 of 14, counting from the safest · half the group scores under 39 1. [1San MarinoLow25](https://criora.com/atlas/SMR) 2. [2PortugalLow32](https://criora.com/atlas/PRT) 3. [3SloveniaLow33](https://criora.com/atlas/SVN) 4. [4AndorraLow33](https://criora.com/atlas/AND) 5. [5MaltaLow34](https://criora.com/atlas/MLT) 6. [6MontenegroLow37](https://criora.com/atlas/MNE) 7. [7SpainLow39](https://criora.com/atlas/ESP) 8. [8GreeceLow39](https://criora.com/atlas/GRC) 9. [9CroatiaMedium40](https://criora.com/atlas/HRV) 10. [10ItalyMedium40](https://criora.com/atlas/ITA) ### Europe 16 of 43, counting from the safest · half the group scores under 34 1. [12IrelandLow31](https://criora.com/atlas/IRL) 2. [13AustriaLow31](https://criora.com/atlas/AUT) 3. [14EstoniaLow32](https://criora.com/atlas/EST) 4. [15GermanyLow32](https://criora.com/atlas/DEU) 5. [16PortugalLow32](https://criora.com/atlas/PRT) 6. [17SloveniaLow33](https://criora.com/atlas/SVN) 7. [18LithuaniaLow33](https://criora.com/atlas/LTU) 8. [19AndorraLow33](https://criora.com/atlas/AND) 9. [20NetherlandsLow34](https://criora.com/atlas/NLD) 10. [21FranceLow34](https://criora.com/atlas/FRA) ### High income 27 of 64, counting from the safest · half the group scores under 34 1. [23South KoreaLow32](https://criora.com/atlas/KOR) 2. [24GermanyLow32](https://criora.com/atlas/DEU) 3. [25United Arab EmiratesLow32](https://criora.com/atlas/ARE) 4. [26QatarLow32](https://criora.com/atlas/QAT) 5. [27PortugalLow32](https://criora.com/atlas/PRT) 6. [28SloveniaLow33](https://criora.com/atlas/SVN) 7. [29LithuaniaLow33](https://criora.com/atlas/LTU) 8. [30AndorraLow33](https://criora.com/atlas/AND) 9. [31BahamasLow33](https://criora.com/atlas/BHS) 10. [32UruguayLow33](https://criora.com/atlas/URY) ### Put two countries head to head Compare with any other country on all risks and their 5-year trajectory. [Compare](https://criora.com/atlas/compare?a=PRT) ## Every figure behind the scores All the figures the scores above are built from. Value is the figure as its source publishes it; risk is its score from 0 to 100, higher is worse; the last two columns compare that score with the typical country in the world and in the region. For example, "Energy imports": 77.2 % of energy use in 2023. That is a risk of 77.2 of 100; the country in the middle of the world's list has 43.8, so the difference from the world is +33.4. Pushing the risk up most: Energy imports (77.2); Renewable energy share (66.5); Drought index (SPEI) (63.2); least: Access to clean fuels (0.0); Coastal protection by natural habitats (1.2); Coal electricity share (1.6). | | | Year | | Against the world | Against the region | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Energy imports 77.2 % of energy use | 77.2 % of energy use | 2023 | 77.2 | +33.4 | +26.9 | | Renewable energy share 32.3 % of total energy | 32.3 % of total energy | 2021 | 66.5 | -8.8 | -11.3 | | Drought index (SPEI) -1.58 (below 0: drier than usual) | -1.58 (below 0: drier than usual) | 2023 | 63.2 | +50.5 | +57.1 | | Energy use per capita 1,815 kg of oil equivalent per person | 1,815 kg of oil equivalent per person | 2024 | 59.1 | -6.8 | -7.6 | | Ground surface temperature 22.8 °C The temperature of the ground itself, as satellites see it, averaged over the year. Ground in the sun runs warmer than the air, so it usually reads above the air temperature a weather forecast gives. | 22.8 °C | 2021 | 55.7 | -9.3 | +17.3 | | River flood risk 3.8 of 10 | 3.8 of 10 | 2026 | 38.0 | -13.0 | -21.0 | | Renewable electricity share 64.9 % of total | 64.9 % of total | 2021 | 35.1 | -39.9 | -25.0 | | CO2 emissions per capita 3.32 t CO2e per capita | 3.32 t CO2e per capita | 2024 | 33.0 | +4.3 | -7.6 | | Heating degree days 1,280 degree days Added up over the year: how many degrees each day's mean is below 18 °C. The more, the more heating buildings need. | 1,280 degree days | 2024 | 15.5 | +5.0 | -19.0 | | Cooling degree days 468 degree days Added up over the year: how many degrees each day's mean is above 18 °C. The more, the more cooling buildings need. | 468 degree days | 2024 | 11.1 | -41.4 | +5.7 | | Energy intensity 2.31 MJ per dollar of GDP | 2.31 MJ per dollar of GDP | 2022 | 7.5 | -6.3 | -2.9 | | PM2.5 air pollution 8.45 µg/m³ | 8.45 µg/m³ | 2020 | 4.0 | -13.4 | -3.2 | | Coal electricity share 1.57 % of total | 1.57 % of total | 2021 | 1.6 | +1.6 | -6.0 | | Coastal protection by natural habitats 98.9 of 100 | 98.9 of 100 | 2025 | 1.2 | -22.6 | -35.7 | | Access to clean fuels 100 % population | 100 % population | 2023 | 0.0 | -8.6 | 0.0 | Sources: the World Bank, the INFORM Risk Index and the ND-GAIN Country Index. Scores were recalculated in November 2026. The figures themselves date from 2020 to 2026; the table above shows the year of each. You can also ask ChatGPT, Claude or another AI assistant about this country and get answers from Criora's data. [How to connect an assistant](https://criora.com/docs/references/api-and-agents) ## For journalists and researchers Cite this page In a line ``` Source: Criora (criora.com), based on INFORM, ND-GAIN and the World Bank ``` APA ``` Criora. (2026). Portugal: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 13, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/PRT ``` BibTeX ``` @misc{criora_atlas_PRT_2026, author = {{Criora}}, title = {Portugal: climate risk profile}, year = {2026}, url = {https://criora.com/atlas/PRT}, urldate = {2026-11-13} } ``` Criora's scores are under CC BY 4.0. Each source's indicators stay under that source's terms. Embed on your site Free, no account needed. The widget has no script and shows the figures of this page. Keep its link to the source.