Climate risk in Florence
Tuscany, Italy · 1.5M people in the urban area
What threatens Florence most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- River flood
- 0.23 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Italy
A 100-year river flood would stand 0.23 m deep in the centre of Florence.
Rome: Dry at the city centre point.
The highest of the 5 large cities in Italy.
Florence's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Florence's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Denizli (Turkey).
+1.7°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.6°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.3°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-6%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, the nearest is Dallas (United States of America), and only in part.
Its own climate today is 2.6 σ away. How close the match is: 3.1 σ to the climate of Denizli today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Florence stands out
1.95 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Rome: 1.77 m/s².
The highest of the 5 large cities in Italy.
Higher than in 79% of the world's 627 large cities
Hazards at Florence
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Florence | Among large cities | In Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 6 days | Among large cities: above 53% | In Italy: 3 of 5 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 16 days | Among large cities: above 24% | In Italy: 5 of 5 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 36.1°C | Among large cities: above 48% | In Italy: 3 of 5 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.2°C | Among large cities: above 69% | In Italy: 1 of 5 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 10 days | Among large cities: above 51% | In Italy: 3 of 5 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 0.23 m | Among large cities: above 90% | In Italy: 1 of 5 |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | In Italy: 1 of 5 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In Italy: 3 of 5 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 1.95 m/s² | Among large cities: above 79% | In Italy: 1 of 5 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Florence on the live map
See the earthquake hazard around Florence on the live map
1.95 m/s² © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Italy
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Florence, Italy: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/ITA/florence BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_ITA_florence_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Florence, Italy: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/ITA/florence},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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