Italy: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 44 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Italy's risk?

Italy's highest pressures are governance (55, medium) and climate (48). Its strongest area is social (24).

How might Italy's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 17% of Italy's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 74 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Italy warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Italy is on track to warm by +3.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -5 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Italy's coast?

Coastal sea level along Italy is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.54 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Italy?

The share of Italy under high water stress is projected to move from 62% today to 76% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Italy?

The share of Italy exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.1% today to 1.6% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Italy's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Italy Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Europe
Subregion: Southern Europe
Income: High income, OECD
ISO: ITA

Italy: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Italy, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 44 / 100

48 Climate Medium
44 Nature -0.4 Medium
24 Social Low
55 Governance Medium
46 Adaptation -3.8 Medium

Which hazards threaten Italy most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

6.2FloodHigh
6.8DRR capacityHigh

Italy in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Southern Europe

#11 of 14 · median 42

Europe

#36 of 43 · median 38

High income: OECD

#31 of 31 · median 37

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Italy: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Italy is projected to warm +3.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing -5 mm.

+3.6 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.0 °C → +3.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.1 °C → +2.5 °C

Hottest month +6.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-5 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +14 mm → -5 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -2 mm → +5 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

76%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 68% → 76%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 73% → 74%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 62% today.

1.6%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 2.4% → 1.6%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 2.3% → 1.6%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.1% today.

Sea level

Italy: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.23 m → +0.73 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.21 m → +0.54 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Energy Imports	79.8 % of energy use	2023	96.9	+3.7	+2.7
Renewable Energy Share	17.5 % of total energy	2021	81.8	+6.4	+4.0
Coastal Protection Needed	85.7 % coast	2020	81.4	-2.9	+2.2
Fossil Fuel Consumption	76.8 % of total	2023	77.1	+11.0	+16.5
Flood Risk	6.20 0-10	2026	62.0	+10.0	+3.0
Renewable Electricity Share	41.0 % of total	2021	59.0	-16.1	-1.1
Land Surface Temperature	20.4 deg C change	2021	50.7	-14.0	+12.3
Heating Degree Days	3895 degree days	2020	26.8	+25.4	-10.0
Drought Index (SPEI)	-1.49 index	2021	26.7	-19.7	-27.7
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	4.73 metric tons	2020	15.0	+7.3	0.0
Energy Use Per Capita	2318 kg oil eq per capita	2023	14.6	-2.1	-3.5
PM2.5 Air Pollution	14.7 ug/m3	2020	12.2	-7.0	+4.3
Cooling Degree Days	888 degree days	2020	12.2	-39.6	+8.5
Coal Electricity Share	5.44 % of total	2023	11.7	-2.9	+2.3
Energy Intensity	2.30 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	10.4	-8.8	-4.1
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.27 kt CO2e per capita	2020	6.3	-0.7	-4.3
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Dam Capacity	0.96 0-1	2023	95.7	+2.4	+4.2
Protected Areas	14.5 % of land	2023	85.4	-3.5	+3.3
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.84 0-1	2023	83.9	-2.6	+53.1
Energy Import Dependency	0.80 0-1	2023	79.8	+54.1	+30.9
Earthquake Risk	7.70 0-10	2026	77.0	+42.0	+45.5
Food Production Index	97.0 index	2022	75.7	+8.6	+3.4
Urban Concentration	0.70 0-1	2023	69.8	+12.4	-2.4
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.68 0-1	2023	68.2	+10.6	+2.3
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.67 0-1	2023	67.3	+30.0	+27.7
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Freshwater Withdrawal	18.4 % of internal resources	2021	65.7	+15.4	+15.4
Forest Area	32.7 % of land	2022	65.4	-0.9	+0.8
Projected Warm Period Change	0.65 0-1	2023	64.8	-3.0	-8.7
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.62 0-1	2023	61.6	-22.6	+1.8
Tsunami Risk	6.10 0-10	2026	61.0	+50.0	+61.0
Age Dependency Ratio	0.55 0-1	2023	54.8	+2.0	+2.7
Agricultural Capacity	0.53 0-1	2023	52.7	-39.1	-30.0
Agricultural Land	44.0 % of land	2022	51.7	+4.4	+0.7
Projected Hydropower Change	0.52 0-1	2023	51.7	+8.0	+6.3
Disaster Preparedness	0.42 0-1	2023	42.5	+12.5	+10.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.40 0-1	2023	39.6	0.0	+15.9
Natural Capital Dependency	0.37 0-1	2023	36.7	+14.9	+8.2
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.35 0-1	2023	35.1	+21.6	+24.7
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.31 0-1	2023	30.8	-31.3	-7.7
Rural Population	0.30 0-1	2023	30.2	-12.4	+2.4
Projected Groundwater Change	0.23 0-1	2023	23.4	-2.8	-2.2
Population Below 5m	0.23 0-1	2023	23.1	+8.4	+13.5
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.21 0-1	2023	21.2	-18.1	+10.8
Protected Biome Areas	0.21 0-1	2023	20.9	-20.1	+1.4
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.17 0-1	2023	17.4	-1.0	+7.8
Food Import Dependency	0.16 0-1	2023	16.3	-5.4	-0.4
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.16 0-1	2023	15.8	+8.4	+8.1
Projected Population Change	0.09 0-1	2023	9.2	-13.1	+0.6
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.07 0-1	2023	7.4	-13.0	+5.3
Agriculture GDP Share	1.87 % of GDP	2023	5.2	-13.7	-1.0
Water Dependency Ratio	0.05 0-1	2023	4.6	-2.3	-10.6
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.04 0-1	2023	4.4	-71.9	-41.7
Threatened Mammal Species	8.00 count	2018	4.2	-1.0	+2.1
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.03 0-1	2023	3.0	-27.3	0.0
Ecological Footprint	0.03 0-1	2023	2.9	-19.7	-1.1
Water Stress	29.6 %	2021	0.8	+0.5	+0.6
Tree Cover Loss	28264 hectares	2021	0.4	+0.3	+0.2
Forest Depletion	0.01 % of GNI	2021	0.1	0.0	+0.1
Natural Resource Depletion	0.09 % of GNI	2021	0.1	-2.0	-0.2
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	0.0
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	0.0
Paved Roads	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-55.0	-10.1
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Education Expenditure	7.44 % of govt	2021	87.9	+18.0	+11.1
Hospital Beds	3.18 per 1,000	2020	76.2	-2.8	+10.3
Uprooted People	7.30 0-10	2026	73.0	+14.0	+3.5
Shared Prosperity Growth	1.23 % annual	2022	67.4	+7.6	+9.8
Aging Population	24.2 % population	2023	65.1	+48.7	+11.7
School Gender Parity	0.99 ratio	2020	61.9	+5.0	+2.5
Primary School Enrollment	102 % gross	2022	61.7	-1.9	-1.4
Net Migration	150189 persons	2023	60.1	+5.1	+4.9
GDP Growth	0.72 % annual	2023	52.3	+3.4	+2.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	6.80 %	2022	50.0	+5.6	+13.9
Overweight Adults	49.1 % adults	2022	48.1	-7.9	-9.3
Gender Labor Ratio	70.2 ratio F/M	2023	35.3	+8.3	+14.0
Labor Participation	66.7 % (15+)	2023	33.9	+3.8	+15.3
Gini Coefficient	33.7 0-100	2022	31.3	+0.6	+8.2
Poverty Rate (National)	20.1 % population	2021	23.0	+2.4	+6.1
Sanitation Access	79.0 % population	2022	21.6	-18.4	+11.3
Unemployment Rate	7.63 %	2023	21.4	+7.2	+6.3
Internet Users	87.0 % population	2023	14.6	-6.3	+5.0
ESG Performance Score	2.44 0-100	2018	12.4	-12.6	-0.8
Fertility Rate	1.20 births per woman	2023	8.9	-14.4	-4.4
Life Expectancy	83.7 years	2023	8.4	-31.1	-6.8
Safe Drinking Water	92.7 % population	2022	7.8	-13.7	+5.8
Communicable Disease Deaths	5.50 %	2019	6.6	-9.5	+1.2
Health Conditions	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-6.0	0.0
Children Under 5	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-9.0	-1.0
Adult Literacy Rate	99.0 %	2019	1.4	-9.3	0.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	2.80 per 1,000	2023	1.2	-11.0	-0.7
Population Density	200 people/km2	2022	1.1	+0.6	+0.6
Aid Dependency	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-24.0	-5.0
Development and Deprivation	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	0.0
Food Security	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-18.0	-7.5
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	0.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	10281 count	2021	99.3	-0.7	-0.7
Scientific Articles	90586 count	2022	89.9	-10.0	-9.1
Legal Rights Strength	2.00 0-12	2019	83.3	+33.3	+33.3
R&D Expenditure	1.39 % of GDP	2022	77.4	-10.6	+0.3
Disaster Risk Reduction	6.80 0-10	2026	68.0	+26.5	+33.0
Women in Parliament	32.3 % seats	2023	47.3	-10.9	+3.8
Rule of Law	0.39 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	42.2	-10.8	+13.6
INFORM Governance Index	4.00 0-10	2026	40.0	-16.0	+3.5
Control of Corruption	0.55 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	39.0	-16.6	+4.4
Political Stability	0.58 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	38.3	-11.5	+0.3
Government Effectiveness	0.61 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	37.8	-13.9	+8.5
Regulatory Quality	0.64 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	37.1	-15.6	+5.7
Voice and Accountability	1.12 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	27.7	-21.2	-0.8
Communication Infrastructure	1.20 0-10	2026	12.0	-8.0	-2.0
Healthcare Access	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-33.0	-1.5
Physical Infrastructure	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	-1.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Doing Business Score	0.41 0-1	2023	59.4	+1.0	+15.2
Education (Readiness)	0.44 0-1	2023	55.7	-17.3	+0.8
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.46 0-1	2023	54.5	+3.0	+16.4
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.55 0-1	2023	44.8	-19.5	+5.0
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.59 0-1	2023	41.4	-10.6	+13.3
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.63 0-1	2023	36.8	-15.8	+5.7
ICT Infrastructure	0.66 0-1	2023	34.3	-13.4	+1.1
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.67 0-1	2023	33.0	-10.1	+0.3
Innovation (Readiness)	0.83 0-1	2023	16.8	-77.9	-57.7

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Italy?
Italy: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 44 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Italy's risk?
Italy's highest pressures are governance (55, medium) and climate (48). Its strongest area is social (24).
How might Italy's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 17% of Italy's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 74 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Italy warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Italy is on track to warm by +3.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -5 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Italy's coast?
Coastal sea level along Italy is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.54 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Italy?
The share of Italy under high water stress is projected to move from 62% today to 76% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Italy?
The share of Italy exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.1% today to 1.6% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Italy's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.