Italy: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 43 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Italy's risk?

Italy's highest pressures are governance (56, medium) and adaptation (46). Its strongest area is social (23).

How might Italy's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 17% of Italy's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 74 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Italy warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Italy is on track to warm by +3.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -5 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Italy's coast?

Coastal sea level along Italy is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.54 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Italy?

The share of Italy under high water stress is projected to move from 62% today to 76% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Italy?

The share of Italy exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.1% today to 1.6% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Italy's risk data last updated?

Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Italy Climate risk profile and hazard map

Name: Italy country risk profile
Creator: Criora
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Region: Europe
Subregion: Southern Europe
Income: High income, OECD
ISO: ITA

Italy: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Italy, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 43 / 100

46 Climate Medium
45 Nature -0.4 Medium
23 Social Low
56 Governance Medium
46 Adaptation -3.8 Medium

Which hazards threaten Italy most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

6.2FloodHigh
6.8DRR capacityHigh

Italy in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Southern Europe

#11 of 14 · median 42

Europe

#35 of 43 · median 38

High income: OECD

#31 of 31 · median 36

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Italy: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Italy is projected to warm +3.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing -5 mm.

+3.6 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.0 °C → +3.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.1 °C → +2.5 °C

Hottest month +6.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-5 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +14 mm → -5 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -2 mm → +5 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

76%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 68% → 76%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 73% → 74%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 62% today.

1.6%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 2.4% → 1.6%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 2.3% → 1.6%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.1% today.

Sea level

Italy: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Palermo, Max depth 0.8 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.23 m → +0.73 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.21 m → +0.54 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Renewable Energy Share	17.5 % of total energy	2021	81.8	+6.4	+4.0
Energy Imports	79.6 % of energy use	2023	70.7	+3.2	+2.6
Coastal Protection Needed	72.5 % coast	2024	69.5	-4.2	+10.5
Flood Risk	6.20 0-10	2026	62.0	+10.0	+3.0
Renewable Electricity Share	41.0 % of total	2021	59.0	-16.1	-1.1
Land Surface Temperature	20.4 deg C change	2021	50.7	-14.0	+12.3
Fossil Fuel Consumption	0.00 % of total	2024	50.0	0.0	0.0
Heating Degree Days	3673 degree days	2024	26.8	+13.8	-10.6
Drought Index (SPEI)	-1.31 index	2023	23.9	-20.2	-23.8
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	4.73 metric tons	2020	15.0	+7.3	0.0
Cooling Degree Days	1101 degree days	2024	14.7	-39.4	+9.2
PM2.5 Air Pollution	14.7 ug/m3	2020	12.2	-7.0	+4.3
Energy Use Per Capita	2231 kg oil eq per capita	2024	10.9	-2.7	-3.5
Energy Intensity	2.30 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	10.4	-8.8	-4.1
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.27 kt CO2e per capita	2020	6.3	-0.7	-4.3
Coal Electricity Share	1.76 % of total	2024	3.0	-7.6	-2.2
Heat Index	0.02 days	2024	0.0	-4.3	0.0
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2023	0.0	-8.3	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Dam Capacity	0.96 0-1	2023	95.7	+2.4	+4.2
Protected Areas	14.6 % of land	2024	85.3	-3.0	+3.5
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.84 0-1	2023	83.9	-2.6	+53.1
Energy Import Dependency	0.80 0-1	2023	79.8	+54.1	+30.9
Earthquake Risk	7.70 0-10	2026	77.0	+42.0	+45.5
Food Production Index	97.0 index	2022	75.7	+8.6	+3.4
Urban Concentration	0.70 0-1	2023	69.8	+12.4	-2.4
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.68 0-1	2023	68.2	+10.6	+2.3
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.67 0-1	2023	67.3	+30.0	+27.7
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Freshwater Withdrawal	18.5 % of internal resources	2022	65.5	+15.2	+13.5
Forest Area	32.9 % of land	2023	65.2	-1.1	+0.7
Projected Warm Period Change	0.65 0-1	2023	64.8	-3.0	-8.7
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.62 0-1	2023	61.6	-22.6	+1.8
Tsunami Risk	6.10 0-10	2026	61.0	+50.0	+61.0
Age Dependency Ratio	0.55 0-1	2023	54.8	+2.0	+2.7
Agricultural Capacity	0.53 0-1	2023	52.7	-39.1	-30.0
Projected Hydropower Change	0.52 0-1	2023	51.7	+8.0	+6.3
Agricultural Land	44.3 % of land	2023	50.9	+6.6	+3.8
Water Bodies Extent	50.7 % of land	2023	49.3	+17.1	+0.2
Disaster Preparedness	0.42 0-1	2023	42.5	+12.5	+10.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.40 0-1	2023	39.6	0.0	+15.9
Natural Capital Dependency	0.37 0-1	2023	36.7	+14.9	+8.2
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.35 0-1	2023	35.1	+21.6	+24.7
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.31 0-1	2023	30.8	-31.3	-7.7
Rural Population	0.30 0-1	2023	30.2	-12.4	+2.4
Projected Groundwater Change	0.23 0-1	2023	23.4	-2.8	-2.2
Population Below 5m	0.23 0-1	2023	23.1	+8.4	+13.5
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.21 0-1	2023	21.2	-18.1	+10.8
Protected Biome Areas	0.21 0-1	2023	20.9	-20.1	+1.4
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.17 0-1	2023	17.4	-1.0	+7.8
Food Import Dependency	0.16 0-1	2023	16.3	-5.4	-0.4
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.16 0-1	2023	15.8	+8.4	+8.1
Projected Population Change	0.09 0-1	2023	9.2	-13.1	+0.6
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.07 0-1	2023	7.4	-13.0	+5.3
Agriculture GDP Share	2.00 % of GDP	2024	4.7	-11.1	-0.5
Water Dependency Ratio	0.05 0-1	2023	4.6	-2.3	-10.6
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.04 0-1	2023	4.4	-71.9	-41.7
Threatened Mammal Species	9.00 count	2022	4.2	-1.0	+1.8
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.03 0-1	2023	3.0	-27.3	0.0
Ecological Footprint	0.03 0-1	2023	2.9	-19.7	-1.1
Water Stress	29.8 %	2022	0.8	+0.5	+0.6
Tree Cover Loss	33082 hectares	2024	0.6	+0.5	+0.5
Natural Resource Depletion	0.09 % of GNI	2021	0.1	-2.0	-0.2
Forest Depletion	0.01 % of GNI	2021	0.1	0.0	+0.1
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	0.0
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	0.0
Paved Roads	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-55.0	-10.1
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Education Expenditure	7.41 % of govt	2022	82.6	+20.2	+12.6
Hospital Beds	3.06 per 1,000	2022	78.1	-1.3	+15.7
Uprooted People	7.30 0-10	2026	73.0	+14.0	+3.5
Shared Prosperity Growth	1.23 % annual	2022	67.4	+7.6	+9.8
Aging Population	24.6 % population	2024	66.5	+49.5	+11.6
School Gender Parity	0.99 ratio	2020	61.9	+5.0	+2.5
Net Migration	95246 persons	2024	55.7	+3.6	+3.5
GDP Growth	0.72 % annual	2023	52.3	+3.4	+2.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	6.60 %	2023	51.4	+7.8	+15.7
Overweight Adults	49.1 % adults	2022	48.1	-7.9	-9.3
Primary School Enrollment	104 % gross	2023	40.3	-2.6	-1.9
Gender Labor Ratio	69.9 ratio F/M	2024	34.7	+9.3	+14.2
Labor Participation	66.6 % (15+)	2024	34.3	+5.4	+15.1
Gini Coefficient	34.3 0-100	2023	34.1	+1.8	+11.7
Sanitation Access	78.2 % population	2024	23.7	-18.2	+14.7
Poverty Rate (National)	20.1 % population	2021	22.5	-0.3	+5.9
Communicable Disease Deaths	15.0 %	2021	19.5	-17.1	-2.3
Unemployment Rate	6.50 %	2024	18.5	+4.4	+3.4
Internet Users	89.2 % population	2024	11.8	-7.7	+4.8
Fertility Rate	1.18 births per woman	2024	8.2	-14.8	-4.1
Life Expectancy	84.0 years	2024	8.0	-31.8	-6.6
Safe Drinking Water	96.8 % population	2024	3.5	-21.7	+1.5
Health Conditions	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-6.0	0.0
Children Under 5	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-9.0	-1.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	2.70 per 1,000	2024	1.2	-10.7	-0.9
Population Density	199 people/km2	2023	1.1	+0.6	+0.6
Aid Dependency	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-24.0	-5.0
Adult Literacy Rate	99.3 %	2019	0.9	-9.9	+0.2
ESG Performance Score	4.97 0-100	2020	0.4	-16.1	-3.9
Development and Deprivation	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	0.0
Food Security	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-18.0	-7.5
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	0.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2023	0.0	-5.2	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	10281 count	2021	99.3	-0.7	-0.7
Scientific Articles	90586 count	2022	89.9	-10.0	-9.1
Legal Rights Strength	2.00 0-12	2019	83.3	+33.3	+33.3
R&D Expenditure	1.38 % of GDP	2023	78.3	-9.0	+2.3
Disaster Risk Reduction	6.80 0-10	2026	68.0	+26.5	+33.0
Women in Parliament	32.3 % seats	2024	49.4	-9.7	+2.2
Rule of Law	0.39 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	42.2	-10.8	+13.6
INFORM Governance Index	4.00 0-10	2026	40.0	-16.0	+3.5
Control of Corruption	0.55 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	39.0	-16.6	+4.4
Political Stability	0.58 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	38.3	-11.5	+0.3
Government Effectiveness	0.61 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	37.8	-13.9	+8.5
Regulatory Quality	0.64 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	37.1	-15.6	+5.7
Voice and Accountability	1.12 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	27.7	-21.2	-0.8
Communication Infrastructure	1.20 0-10	2026	12.0	-8.0	-2.0
Healthcare Access	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-33.0	-1.5
Physical Infrastructure	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	-1.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Doing Business Score	0.41 0-1	2023	59.4	+1.0	+15.2
Education (Readiness)	0.44 0-1	2023	55.7	-17.3	+0.8
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.46 0-1	2023	54.5	+3.0	+16.4
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.55 0-1	2023	44.8	-19.5	+5.0
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.59 0-1	2023	41.4	-10.6	+13.3
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.63 0-1	2023	36.8	-15.8	+5.7
ICT Infrastructure	0.66 0-1	2023	34.3	-13.4	+1.1
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.67 0-1	2023	33.0	-10.1	+0.3
Innovation (Readiness)	0.83 0-1	2023	16.8	-77.9	-57.7

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Italy: ask your AI assistant

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Italy: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Italy?
Italy: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 43 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Italy's risk?
Italy's highest pressures are governance (56, medium) and adaptation (46). Its strongest area is social (23).
How might Italy's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 17% of Italy's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 74 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Italy warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Italy is on track to warm by +3.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -5 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Italy's coast?
Coastal sea level along Italy is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.54 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Italy?
The share of Italy under high water stress is projected to move from 62% today to 76% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Italy?
The share of Italy exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.1% today to 1.6% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Italy's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.