Criora

North Macedonia

Region Europe Subregion Southern Europe Income Upper middle income ISO MKD

North Macedonia sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is North Macedonia, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
43 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    38 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    35 / 100
    ▼ -0.2 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    30 / 100
  4. Governance
    Medium
    59 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    53 / 100
    ▼ -1.9 5y
Climate futures

North Macedonia: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, North Macedonia is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing -25 mm.

Temperature

+4.0 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3.0 °C → +4.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.4 °C → +2.6 °C

Hottest month +6.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-25 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-18 mm → -25 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-3 mm → -12 mm

Driest month -4 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

89%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
86% → 89%
Current path SSP3-7.0
86% → 86%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 6.3% today.

River flooding

0.3%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 0.3%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0% → 0.3%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.8% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten North Macedonia most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Medium
4.2 / 10
Peers

North Macedonia in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Southern Europe
#10 of 14median 42
  1. 5SloveniaLow 38
  2. 6MontenegroLow 40
  3. 7SpainMedium 41
  4. 8GreeceMedium 43
  5. 9CroatiaMedium 43
  6. 10North MacedoniaMedium 43
  7. 11ItalyMedium 44
  8. 12AlbaniaMedium 45
  9. 13SerbiaMedium 47
  10. 14Bosnia and Herz.Medium 49
region
Europe
#34 of 43median 38
  1. 30HungaryMedium 42
  2. 31SlovakiaMedium 42
  3. 32GreeceMedium 43
  4. 33CroatiaMedium 43
  5. 34North MacedoniaMedium 43
  6. 35BulgariaMedium 43
  7. 36ItalyMedium 44
  8. 37RomaniaMedium 44
  9. 38AlbaniaMedium 45
  10. 39MoldovaMedium 46
income group
Upper middle income
#19 of 53median 44
  1. 15MaldivesMedium 41
  2. 16BelarusMedium 41
  3. 17CubaMedium 43
  4. 18TuvaluMedium 43
  5. 19North MacedoniaMedium 43
  6. 20ChinaMedium 43
  7. 21BulgariaMedium 43
  8. 22Costa RicaMedium 43
  9. 23ChileMedium 44
  10. 24JordanMedium 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare North Macedonia against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is North Macedonia?
North Macedonia sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 43 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives North Macedonia's risk?
North Macedonia's highest pressures are governance (59, medium) and adaptation (53). Its strongest area is social (30).
How might North Macedonia's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 49% of North Macedonia's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 74 to 73 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will North Macedonia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), North Macedonia is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -25 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in North Macedonia?
The share of North Macedonia under high water stress is projected to move from 6.3% today to 89% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in North Macedonia?
The share of North Macedonia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.8% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was North Macedonia's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.