Criora

Botswana

Region Africa Subregion Southern Africa Income Upper middle income ISO BWA

Botswana sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Botswana, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
44 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    39 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    25 / 100
    ▲ + 0.8 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    33 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    66 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    57 / 100
    ▼ -0.5 5y
Climate futures

Botswana: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Botswana is projected to warm +3.8 °C, with annual rainfall changing +3 mm.

Temperature

+3.8 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.4 °C → +3.8 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.9 °C → +2.4 °C

Hottest month +4.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+3 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-1 mm → +3 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+8 mm → +11 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

5.8%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
10% → 5.8%
Current path SSP3-7.0
7.6% → 8.9%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 1.4% today.

River flooding

1.1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.6% → 1.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0.6% → 0.6%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.5% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Botswana most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Low
3.6 / 10
DRR capacity
Critical
8.2 / 10
Peers

Botswana in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Southern Africa
#2 of 5median 46
  1. 1South AfricaMedium 41
  2. 2BotswanaMedium 44
  3. 3eSwatiniMedium 46
  4. 4NamibiaMedium 47
  5. 5LesothoMedium 48
region
Africa
#6 of 54median 53
  1. 2SeychellesLow 36
  2. 3Cabo VerdeLow 38
  3. 4South AfricaMedium 41
  4. 5São Tomé and PrincipeMedium 43
  5. 6BotswanaMedium 44
  6. 7RwandaMedium 45
  7. 8TunisiaMedium 46
  8. 9eSwatiniMedium 46
  9. 10NamibiaMedium 47
  10. 11MoroccoMedium 48
income group
Upper middle income
#26 of 53median 44
  1. 22Costa RicaMedium 43
  2. 23ChileMedium 44
  3. 24JordanMedium 44
  4. 25PanamaMedium 44
  5. 26BotswanaMedium 44
  6. 27RomaniaMedium 44
  7. 28KazakhstanMedium 45
  8. 29MalaysiaMedium 45
  9. 30RussiaMedium 46
  10. 31TunisiaMedium 46

Put two countries head to head

Compare Botswana against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Botswana?
Botswana sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 44 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Botswana's risk?
Botswana's highest pressures are governance (66, high) and adaptation (57). Its strongest area is nature (25).
How might Botswana's climate change by 2080?
Botswana's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Botswana warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Botswana is on track to warm by +3.8 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +3 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.4 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Botswana?
The share of Botswana under high water stress is projected to move from 1.4% today to 5.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Botswana?
The share of Botswana exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.5% today to 1.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Botswana's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.