Cuba: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 43 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Cuba's risk?

Cuba's highest pressures are adaptation (66, high) and governance (64). Its strongest area is climate (21).

How might Cuba's climate change by 2080?

Cuba's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Cuba warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Cuba is on track to warm by +2.9 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -77 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Cuba's coast?

Coastal sea level along Cuba is projected to rise by +0.83 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.65 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Cuba?

The share of Cuba under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Cuba?

The share of Cuba exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.1% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Cuba's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Cuba Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Americas
Subregion: Caribbean
Income: Upper middle income
ISO: CUB

Cuba: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Cuba, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 43 / 100

21 Climate Low
40 Nature +0.5 Medium
23 Social Low
64 Governance High
66 Adaptation +0.1 High

Which hazards threaten Cuba most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

0.5FloodVery low

Cuba in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Caribbean

#11 of 13 · median 38

Americas

#14 of 35 · median 44

Upper middle income

#20 of 53 · median 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Cuba: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Cuba is projected to warm +2.9 °C, with annual rainfall changing -77 mm.

+2.9 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.0 °C → +2.9 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.7 °C → +2.1 °C

Hottest month +3.6 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-77 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: -33 mm → -77 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -7 mm → -9 mm

Driest month +1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0% → 0%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.1% today.

Sea level

Cuba: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.27 m → +0.83 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.25 m → +0.65 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Renewable Electricity Share	5.19 % of total	2021	94.8	+19.7	+26.7
Fossil Fuel Consumption	88.1 % of total	2022	87.6	+14.9	+11.7
Renewable Energy Share	20.9 % of total energy	2021	78.3	+2.9	-2.1
Energy Imports	62.8 % of energy use	2022	73.8	+2.7	+3.6
Cooling Degree Days	5210 degree days	2020	71.3	+19.5	+5.2
Land Surface Temperature	29.7 deg C change	2021	69.9	+5.2	+4.6
Coastal Protection Needed	65.9 % coast	2020	55.7	-28.6	-13.6
Drought Index (SPEI)	-1.27 index	2021	31.0	-15.4	-12.0
PM2.5 Air Pollution	21.2 ug/m3	2020	20.4	+1.2	+1.8
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	2.18 metric tons	2020	6.9	-0.8	0.0
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.29 kt CO2e per capita	2020	6.7	-0.3	-0.5
Access to Clean Fuels	94.7 % population	2022	5.3	-5.0	-0.2
Flood Risk	0.50 0-10	2026	5.0	-47.0	-37.0
Energy Use Per Capita	816 kg oil eq per capita	2022	4.5	-3.8	-1.2
Heat Index	4.18 index	2020	3.1	+3.1	+2.9
Energy Intensity	1.35 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	1.5	-15.1	-11.5
Heating Degree Days	3.20 degree days	2020	0.0	-1.4	0.0
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Environmental Treaties Engagement	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+23.7	+25.1
Food Production Index	71.4 index	2022	99.7	+32.6	+29.4
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.96 0-1	2023	96.0	+9.5	+1.9
Agricultural Capacity	0.95 0-1	2023	94.8	+3.0	+3.8
Protected Areas	6.70 % of land	2023	93.2	+4.3	+3.2
Dam Capacity	0.87 0-1	2023	87.1	-6.2	+0.5
Urban Concentration	0.76 0-1	2023	75.8	+18.4	+8.7
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.76 0-1	2023	75.5	+35.9	+26.1
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.75 0-1	2023	75.4	+61.9	+57.5
Agricultural Land	61.7 % of land	2022	72.8	+25.5	+38.4
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.72 0-1	2023	71.8	+9.6	+10.3
Forest Area	31.2 % of land	2022	67.0	+0.7	+14.4
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Freshwater Withdrawal	18.3 % of internal resources	2021	65.1	+14.8	+28.5
Projected Warm Period Change	0.63 0-1	2023	63.4	-4.4	+11.4
Energy Import Dependency	0.63 0-1	2023	62.8	+37.1	+47.3
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.62 0-1	2023	61.6	+24.4	+14.8
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.60 0-1	2023	60.0	+2.4	+4.1
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.59 0-1	2023	59.3	+20.0	+4.9
Paved Roads	0.51 0-1	2023	51.4	-3.6	-15.6
Earthquake Risk	5.00 0-10	2026	50.0	+15.0	-9.0
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.45 0-1	2023	45.4	-38.8	-36.9
Projected Hydropower Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.7	0.0	+0.5
Age Dependency Ratio	0.43 0-1	2023	43.0	-9.8	-3.8
Food Import Dependency	0.40 0-1	2023	39.9	+18.2	+14.8
Tsunami Risk	3.30 0-10	2026	33.0	+22.0	-4.0
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.30 0-1	2023	30.0	+11.6	-3.7
Protected Biome Areas	0.28 0-1	2023	28.2	-12.8	-7.6
Rural Population	0.24 0-1	2023	24.2	-18.4	-8.7
Natural Capital Dependency	0.23 0-1	2023	23.2	+1.4	+3.0
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.16 0-1	2023	15.6	+8.1	+12.2
Population Below 5m	0.15 0-1	2023	15.1	+0.3	+1.0
Projected Groundwater Change	0.14 0-1	2023	14.4	-11.8	-7.5
Slum Population	0.11 0-1	2023	10.6	-5.9	-5.0
Child Malnutrition	0.08 0-1	2023	8.3	-5.5	+0.4
Projected Population Change	0.08 0-1	2023	8.0	-14.3	-12.0
Threatened Mammal Species	10.0 count	2018	5.2	0.0	0.0
Agriculture GDP Share	1.31 % of GDP	2023	3.6	-15.3	-12.9
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.03 0-1	2023	3.0	-27.3	-27.3
Natural Resource Depletion	0.65 % of GNI	2019	2.2	-0.2	+0.5
Water Stress	23.9 %	2021	0.6	+0.3	+0.4
Forest Depletion	0.07 % of GNI	2019	0.4	+0.4	+0.3
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.1	-6.7	-1.4
Tree Cover Loss	9721 hectares	2021	0.1	0.0	-0.2
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	-1.9
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	-0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Recent Shocks	10.0 0-10	2026	100.0	+99.0	+94.0
Hospital Beds	4.22 per 1,000	2021	68.8	-15.1	-18.3
Sanitation Access	41.3 % population	2022	60.3	+20.3	+5.8
GDP Growth	-1.93 % annual	2023	56.5	+7.6	+7.8
Overweight Adults	55.6 % adults	2022	56.2	+0.2	-10.3
Net Migration	-22797 persons	2023	54.3	-0.7	-0.7
Education Expenditure	17.0 % of govt	2022	49.5	-15.4	-11.7
Gender Labor Ratio	60.7 ratio F/M	2023	45.1	+18.1	+11.0
Aging Population	16.2 % population	2023	42.0	+25.6	+19.7
Primary School Enrollment	98.4 % gross	2023	41.5	-0.5	-2.0
School Gender Parity	1.00 ratio	2021	41.0	0.0	-1.4
Labor Participation	63.7 % (15+)	2023	38.5	+8.4	+8.3
Internet Users	71.3 % population	2023	32.3	+11.4	+8.0
Life Expectancy	78.1 years	2023	26.0	-13.5	-9.8
Development and Deprivation	2.20 0-10	2026	22.0	-8.0	-7.0
Aid Dependency	2.10 0-10	2026	21.0	-4.0	-4.0
Food Security	1.40 0-10	2026	14.0	-4.0	-4.0
Fertility Rate	1.44 births per woman	2023	13.3	-10.0	-4.9
Communicable Disease Deaths	9.22 %	2019	12.4	-3.7	-4.1
Unmet Contraception Need	8.78 %	2019	8.5	-27.1	0.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	8.30 per 1,000	2023	6.1	-6.1	-4.5
Children Under 5	0.60 0-10	2026	6.0	-5.0	-4.0
Health Conditions	0.50 0-10	2026	5.0	-3.0	-3.0
Unemployment Rate	1.72 %	2023	4.5	-9.7	-12.5
Population Density	107 people/km2	2022	0.6	+0.1	+0.3
Adult Literacy Rate	99.7 %	2021	0.5	-6.0	-5.0
Uprooted People	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-59.0	-60.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	-0.2
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	-4.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	21.0 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	1238 count	2022	99.9	0.0	-0.1
R&D Expenditure	0.36 % of GDP	2022	94.6	+6.6	-1.0
Regulatory Quality	-1.50 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	80.0	+27.3	+30.1
Voice and Accountability	-1.25 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	75.0	+26.1	+35.7
Government Effectiveness	-0.48 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	59.5	+7.8	+8.0
Rule of Law	-0.45 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	59.1	+6.1	+2.9
INFORM Governance Index	5.70 0-10	2026	57.0	+1.0	+1.0
Control of Corruption	-0.06 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	51.1	-4.5	-6.1
Political Stability	0.38 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	42.3	-7.5	-3.4
Communication Infrastructure	2.40 0-10	2026	24.0	+4.0	+4.0
Physical Infrastructure	1.80 0-10	2026	18.0	-12.0	-11.0
Women in Parliament	55.7 % seats	2023	9.0	-49.2	-43.9
Healthcare Access	0.50 0-10	2026	5.0	-32.0	-24.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.01 0-1	2023	99.1	+4.4	+1.3
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.21 0-1	2023	79.3	+26.7	+29.9
Education (Readiness)	0.29 0-1	2023	70.7	-2.3	+1.7
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.41 0-1	2023	58.8	-5.5	-7.0
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.42 0-1	2023	58.0	+6.0	+2.8
ICT Infrastructure	0.47 0-1	2023	53.2	+5.5	+8.3
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.64 0-1	2023	36.4	-6.7	-2.9

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Cuba?
Cuba: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 43 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Cuba's risk?
Cuba's highest pressures are adaptation (66, high) and governance (64). Its strongest area is climate (21).
How might Cuba's climate change by 2080?
Cuba's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Cuba warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Cuba is on track to warm by +2.9 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -77 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Cuba's coast?
Coastal sea level along Cuba is projected to rise by +0.83 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.65 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Cuba?
The share of Cuba under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Cuba?
The share of Cuba exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.1% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Cuba's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.