What drives Antigua and Barb.'s risk?

Antigua and Barb.'s highest pressures are governance (61, high) and adaptation (55). Its strongest area is social (17).

How might Antigua and Barb.'s climate change by 2080?

Antigua and Barb.'s climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will sea levels rise along Antigua and Barb.'s coast?

Coastal sea level along Antigua and Barb. is projected to rise by +0.69 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.50 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Antigua and Barb.?

The share of Antigua and Barb. under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Antigua and Barb.?

The share of Antigua and Barb. exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Antigua and Barb.'s risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Antigua and Barb. Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Americas
Subregion: Caribbean
Income: Upper middle income
ISO: ATG

Antigua and Barb.: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Antigua and Barb., overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 38 / 100

18 Climate Very low
40 Nature -0.7 Medium
17 Social Very low
61 Governance High
55 Adaptation -0.8 Medium

Which hazards threaten Antigua and Barb. most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

0.0FloodVery low
6.3DRR capacityHigh

Antigua and Barb. in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Caribbean

#8 of 13 · median 38

Americas

#10 of 35 · median 44

Upper middle income

#10 of 53 · median 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Antigua and Barb.: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0% → 0%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.

Sea level

Antigua and Barb.: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 1 of its largest cities.

Saint John's, Max depth 0.7 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.19 m → +0.69 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.17 m → +0.50 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Renewable Energy Share	0.90 % of total energy	2022	100.0	+31.6	+6.7
Renewable Electricity Share	5.66 % of total	2021	94.3	+19.2	+26.2
Cooling Degree Days	5399 degree days	2020	73.9	+22.1	+7.8
Coastal Protection Needed	77.8 % coast	2020	71.1	-13.2	+1.8
Land Surface Temperature	29.2 deg C change	2021	68.9	+4.2	+3.6
Energy Intensity	4.48 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	27.4	+8.2	+11.8
PM2.5 Air Pollution	19.7 ug/m3	2020	18.5	-0.7	-0.1
Methane Emissions Per Capita	2.23 kt CO2e per capita	2020	17.9	+9.8	+0.3
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	5.17 metric tons	2020	16.4	+8.7	+9.5
Drought Index (SPEI)	-2.05 index	2021	12.2	-34.2	-30.8
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.13 kt CO2e per capita	2020	3.0	-4.0	-4.2
Flood Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-52.0	-42.0
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	-5.5
Heating Degree Days	0.00 degree days	2020	0.0	-1.4	0.0
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	-0.2
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+86.5	+82.1
Water Bodies Extent	0.00 % of land	2020	100.0	+78.4	+68.2
Protected Areas	0.40 % of land	2023	99.6	+10.7	+9.6
Dam Capacity	0.99 0-1	2023	98.6	+5.3	+12.0
Agricultural Capacity	0.94 0-1	2023	94.2	+2.4	+3.2
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.90 0-1	2023	90.4	+3.9	-3.7
Food Production Index	90.0 index	2022	82.3	+15.2	+12.0
Rural Population	0.82 0-1	2023	81.5	+38.9	+48.6
Forest Area	18.2 % of land	2022	80.8	+14.5	+28.2
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.75 0-1	2023	75.3	-1.0	+0.4
Population Below 5m	0.74 0-1	2023	73.6	+58.8	+59.5
Paved Roads	0.68 0-1	2023	67.5	+12.5	+0.5
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.60 0-1	2023	60.0	-24.2	-22.3
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.59 0-1	2023	59.0	-3.1	-2.5
Earthquake Risk	5.10 0-10	2026	51.0	+16.0	-8.0
Protected Biome Areas	0.50 0-1	2023	50.4	+9.4	+14.6
Freshwater Withdrawal	8.46 % of internal resources	2021	49.4	-0.9	+12.8
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.47 0-1	2023	46.8	+9.5	0.0
Food Import Dependency	0.43 0-1	2023	42.9	+21.2	+17.8
Disaster Preparedness	0.40 0-1	2023	40.0	+10.0	+15.0
Age Dependency Ratio	0.37 0-1	2023	37.3	-15.5	-9.5
Natural Capital Dependency	0.35 0-1	2023	35.2	+13.4	+15.0
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.35 0-1	2023	34.6	+16.3	+0.9
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.30 0-1	2023	30.3	0.0	0.0
Agricultural Land	20.5 % of land	2022	23.5	-23.8	-10.9
Projected Population Change	0.21 0-1	2023	21.1	-1.2	+1.1
Projected Groundwater Change	0.19 0-1	2023	19.3	-6.9	-2.6
Urban Concentration	0.18 0-1	2023	18.5	-38.9	-48.6
Projected Warm Period Change	0.16 0-1	2023	16.3	-51.5	-35.7
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.07 0-1	2023	7.2	-0.3	+3.8
Agriculture GDP Share	1.94 % of GDP	2023	5.4	-13.5	-11.1
Threatened Mammal Species	2.00 count	2018	1.0	-4.2	-4.2
Dependency Ratio	0.01 0-1	2023	0.5	-6.3	-1.0
Water Stress	8.46 %	2021	0.2	-0.1	0.0
Tsunami Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-11.0	-37.0
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	-1.9
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	-0.2
Tree Cover Loss	39.0 hectares	2021	0.0	-0.1	-0.3

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	3.29 per 1,000	2020	75.3	-3.7	-11.0
Overweight Adults	62.7 % adults	2022	65.1	+9.1	-1.4
Education Expenditure	9.80 % of govt	2023	62.2	+15.1	+11.1
Net Migration	0.00 persons	2023	55.0	0.0	0.0
Food Security	5.20 0-10	2026	52.0	+34.0	+34.0
GDP Growth	2.43 % annual	2023	49.6	+0.7	+0.9
Primary School Enrollment	112 % gross	2019	31.7	-13.0	-11.5
Aging Population	11.2 % population	2023	27.8	+11.4	+5.5
School Gender Parity	0.98 ratio	2018	26.6	+4.6	+5.1
Internet Users	77.6 % population	2023	25.2	+4.3	+0.9
ESG Performance Score	2.30 0-100	2018	22.6	-2.4	-1.9
Life Expectancy	77.6 years	2023	22.2	-17.3	-13.6
Fertility Rate	1.58 births per woman	2023	15.8	-7.5	-2.4
Communicable Disease Deaths	9.83 %	2019	13.4	-2.7	-3.1
Development and Deprivation	1.00 0-10	2026	10.0	-20.0	-19.0
Health Conditions	0.80 0-10	2026	8.0	0.0	0.0
Uprooted People	0.80 0-10	2026	8.0	-51.0	-52.0
Children Under 5	0.70 0-10	2026	7.0	-4.0	-3.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	9.30 per 1,000	2023	7.0	-5.2	-3.6
Aid Dependency	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-23.0	-23.0
Population Density	211 people/km2	2022	1.1	+0.6	+0.8
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	-6.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	-0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	5.00 count	2018	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	7.02 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
Women in Parliament	5.56 % seats	2023	90.9	+32.7	+38.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	6.30 0-10	2026	63.0	+21.5	+26.0
Legal Rights Strength	5.00 0-12	2019	58.3	+8.3	0.0
Control of Corruption	0.33 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	43.5	-12.1	-13.7
Government Effectiveness	0.38 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	42.4	-9.3	-9.1
Rule of Law	0.38 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	42.4	-10.6	-13.8
INFORM Governance Index	4.10 0-10	2026	41.0	-15.0	-15.0
Regulatory Quality	0.55 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	39.1	-13.6	-10.8
Voice and Accountability	0.74 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	35.2	-13.6	-4.1
Political Stability	0.92 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	31.5	-18.3	-14.2
Healthcare Access	2.70 0-10	2026	27.0	-10.0	-2.0
Communication Infrastructure	0.90 0-10	2026	9.0	-11.0	-11.0
Physical Infrastructure	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-29.0	-28.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Education (Readiness)	0.15 0-1	2023	85.2	+12.2	+16.2
Innovation (Readiness)	0.26 0-1	2023	73.7	-21.0	-24.1
Doing Business Score	0.42 0-1	2023	57.6	-0.8	-3.8
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.50 0-1	2023	50.0	-14.3	-15.8
ICT Infrastructure	0.53 0-1	2023	46.5	-1.2	+1.6
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.58 0-1	2023	41.7	-10.3	-13.5
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.61 0-1	2023	38.7	-13.9	-10.7
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.73 0-1	2023	27.1	-16.0	-12.2

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Antigua and Barb.?
Antigua and Barb.: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 38 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Antigua and Barb.'s risk?
Antigua and Barb.'s highest pressures are governance (61, high) and adaptation (55). Its strongest area is social (17).
How might Antigua and Barb.'s climate change by 2080?
Antigua and Barb.'s climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will sea levels rise along Antigua and Barb.'s coast?
Coastal sea level along Antigua and Barb. is projected to rise by +0.69 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.50 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Antigua and Barb.?
The share of Antigua and Barb. under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Antigua and Barb.?
The share of Antigua and Barb. exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Antigua and Barb.'s risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.