Canada: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 37 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Canada's risk?

Canada's highest pressures are climate (55, medium) and governance (37). Its strongest area is social (24).

How might Canada's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 15% of Canada's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 66 to 69 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Canada warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Canada is on track to warm by +5.8 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +61 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +4.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Canada's coast?

Coastal sea level along Canada is projected to rise by +0.29 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.16 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Canada?

The share of Canada under high water stress is projected to move from 1.7% today to 3.5% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Canada?

The share of Canada exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.4% today to 0.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Canada's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Canada Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Americas
Subregion: Northern America
Income: High income, OECD
ISO: CAN

Canada: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Canada, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 37 / 100

55 Climate Medium
34 Nature -0.3 Low
24 Social Low
37 Governance Low
36 Adaptation +0.5 Low

Which hazards threaten Canada most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

7.1FloodHigh
0.9DRR capacityVery low

Canada in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Northern America

#1 of 2 · median 39

Americas

#5 of 35 · median 44

High income: OECD

#17 of 31 · median 37

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Canada: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Canada is projected to warm +5.8 °C, with annual rainfall changing +61 mm.

+5.8 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +4.1 °C → +5.8 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +3.3 °C → +4.0 °C

Hottest month +3.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+61 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +42 mm → +61 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +37 mm → +45 mm

Driest month +2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

3.5%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 2.9% → 3.5%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 2% → 2.3%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 1.7% today.

0.4%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.3% → 0.4%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.3% → 0.4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.4% today.

Sea level

Canada: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 6 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.07 m → +0.29 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.06 m → +0.16 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Heating Degree Days	14554 degree days	2020	100.0	+98.5	+100.0
Coastal Protection Needed	97.7 % coast	2020	97.1	+12.8	+27.8
Energy Imports	-87.2 % of energy use	2023	77.2	-16.0	-9.3
Fossil Fuel Consumption	76.8 % of total	2023	77.1	+11.0	+1.8
Renewable Energy Share	23.8 % of total energy	2021	75.3	-0.1	-5.1
Flood Risk	7.10 0-10	2026	71.0	+19.0	+29.0
Energy Use Per Capita	7418 kg oil eq per capita	2023	46.7	+30.0	+37.4
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	13.6 metric tons	2020	43.3	+35.6	+36.4
Energy Intensity	6.44 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	42.6	+23.4	+27.0
Drought Index (SPEI)	-1.00 index	2021	36.5	-9.9	-6.5
Renewable Electricity Share	67.3 % of total	2021	32.7	-42.4	-35.4
N2O Emissions Per Capita	1.24 kt CO2e per capita	2020	28.9	+21.9	+21.7
Methane Emissions Per Capita	2.63 kt CO2e per capita	2020	21.3	+13.2	+3.7
Coal Electricity Share	4.33 % of total	2023	9.3	-5.3	-9.3
PM2.5 Air Pollution	6.57 ug/m3	2020	2.1	-17.1	-16.5
Land Surface Temperature	-3.25 deg C change	2021	2.1	-62.6	-63.2
Cooling Degree Days	77.2 degree days	2020	1.1	-50.7	-65.0
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	-5.5
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	-0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+62.8	+53.2
Agricultural Capacity	0.92 0-1	2023	91.8	0.0	+0.8
Protected Areas	11.5 % of land	2023	88.4	-0.5	-1.6
Tree Cover Loss	2524986 hectares	2021	84.4	+84.3	+84.1
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.83 0-1	2023	82.7	+43.1	+33.3
Projected Warm Period Change	0.82 0-1	2023	81.6	+13.8	+29.6
Urban Concentration	0.80 0-1	2023	80.5	+23.1	+13.4
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.67 0-1	2023	67.1	+9.5	+11.2
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Food Production Index	112 index	2022	61.9	-5.2	-8.4
Paved Roads	0.61 0-1	2023	60.6	+5.6	-6.4
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.59 0-1	2023	58.9	-25.3	-23.4
Forest Area	39.5 % of land	2022	58.2	-8.1	+5.6
Tsunami Risk	5.70 0-10	2026	57.0	+46.0	+20.0
Age Dependency Ratio	0.50 0-1	2023	50.4	-2.4	+3.6
Earthquake Risk	4.80 0-10	2026	48.0	+13.0	-11.0
Projected Hydropower Change	0.43 0-1	2023	42.8	-0.9	-0.4
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.38 0-1	2023	37.7	-38.6	-37.2
Projected Groundwater Change	0.35 0-1	2023	35.2	+9.0	+13.4
Protected Biome Areas	0.20 0-1	2023	20.1	-20.9	-15.7
Projected Population Change	0.20 0-1	2023	19.7	-2.6	-0.3
Rural Population	0.20 0-1	2023	19.5	-23.1	-13.4
Freshwater Withdrawal	1.27 % of internal resources	2021	18.0	-32.3	-18.6
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.18 0-1	2023	17.9	-44.3	-43.6
Water Bodies Extent	82.2 % of land	2020	17.8	-3.8	-14.1
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.16 0-1	2023	16.3	-22.9	-38.1
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.16 0-1	2023	16.1	+2.6	-1.8
Food Import Dependency	0.13 0-1	2023	12.9	-8.8	-12.2
Ecological Footprint	0.09 0-1	2023	9.4	-13.2	-12.5
Threatened Mammal Species	18.0 count	2018	9.4	+4.2	+4.2
Population Below 5m	0.09 0-1	2023	8.7	-6.1	-5.4
Agricultural Land	6.49 % of land	2022	6.4	-40.9	-28.0
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.06 0-1	2023	6.2	-12.2	-27.5
Disaster Preparedness	0.05 0-1	2023	5.0	-25.0	-20.0
Agriculture GDP Share	1.60 % of GDP	2021	3.9	-13.9	-10.9
Natural Resource Depletion	2.17 % of GNI	2021	3.8	+1.7	+1.4
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.03 0-1	2023	3.0	-27.3	-27.3
Water Dependency Ratio	0.02 0-1	2023	1.8	-5.1	-0.1
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.01 0-1	2023	1.1	-6.3	-2.3
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.01 0-1	2023	1.0	-19.4	-33.4
Water Stress	3.73 %	2021	0.1	-0.2	-0.1
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-86.5	-94.1
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	-7.9
Dam Capacity	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-93.3	-86.5
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.8	-1.5
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	-15.6
Natural Capital Dependency	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-21.8	-20.2
Energy Import Dependency	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-25.7	-15.5
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	-0.2
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	-0.1

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	2.56 per 1,000	2020	81.2	+2.2	-5.1
Uprooted People	8.00 0-10	2026	80.0	+21.0	+20.0
Education Expenditure	11.1 % of govt	2022	73.1	+8.2	+11.9
Net Migration	433842 persons	2023	69.8	+14.8	+14.8
Primary School Enrollment	96.0 % gross	2022	67.9	+4.3	+4.9
Overweight Adults	59.1 % adults	2022	60.7	+4.7	-5.8
School Gender Parity	1.00 ratio	2020	57.3	+0.4	0.0
Aging Population	19.4 % population	2023	51.1	+34.7	+28.8
GDP Growth	1.53 % annual	2023	51.0	+2.1	+2.3
Income Share Bottom 20%	8.60 %	2020	23.6	-19.5	-52.1
Gini Coefficient	29.9 0-100	2020	20.0	-15.6	-46.6
Gender Labor Ratio	87.7 ratio F/M	2023	17.3	-9.7	-16.8
Sanitation Access	83.9 % population	2022	16.5	-23.5	-38.0
Shared Prosperity Growth	1.75 % annual	2020	16.2	0.0	-41.9
Unemployment Rate	5.42 %	2023	15.1	+0.9	-1.9
Labor Participation	80.3 % (15+)	2023	13.0	-17.1	-17.2
Fertility Rate	1.26 births per woman	2023	10.0	-13.3	-8.2
Life Expectancy	81.6 years	2023	8.3	-31.2	-27.5
Internet Users	94.0 % population	2023	6.7	-14.2	-17.6
ESG Performance Score	2.52 0-100	2018	6.3	-18.7	-18.2
Communicable Disease Deaths	4.77 %	2019	5.5	-10.6	-11.0
Food Security	0.50 0-10	2026	5.0	-13.0	-13.0
Children Under 5	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-7.0	-6.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	5.10 per 1,000	2023	3.3	-8.9	-7.3
Health Conditions	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-7.0	-7.0
Safe Drinking Water	99.0 % population	2022	1.0	-20.5	-35.1
Aid Dependency	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-25.0	-25.0
Development and Deprivation	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	-29.0
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	-6.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	-4.5
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	-0.2
Population Density	4.43 people/km2	2022	0.0	-0.5	-0.3

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	4710 count	2021	99.7	-0.3	-0.3
Scientific Articles	69052 count	2022	92.3	-7.6	-7.7
Women in Parliament	30.7 % seats	2023	50.0	-8.2	-2.9
Political Stability	0.82 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	33.6	-16.2	-12.1
Physical Infrastructure	3.10 0-10	2026	31.0	+1.0	+2.0
Legal Rights Strength	9.00 0-12	2019	25.0	-25.0	-33.3
Rule of Law	1.47 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	20.5	-32.5	-35.7
Voice and Accountability	1.48 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	20.4	-28.5	-18.9
Communication Infrastructure	2.00 0-10	2026	20.0	0.0	0.0
INFORM Governance Index	2.00 0-10	2026	20.0	-36.0	-36.0
Government Effectiveness	1.52 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	19.7	-32.0	-31.8
Regulatory Quality	1.64 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	17.1	-35.6	-32.8
Control of Corruption	1.67 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	16.6	-39.0	-40.6
Healthcare Access	1.40 0-10	2026	14.0	-23.0	-15.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	0.90 0-10	2026	9.0	-32.5	-28.0
R&D Expenditure	1.70 % of GDP	2023	0.0	-86.3	-85.4

		Year		vs world	vs region
Education (Readiness)	0.46 0-1	2023	53.7	-19.3	-15.3
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.53 0-1	2023	47.0	-4.5	-21.3
Doing Business Score	0.58 0-1	2023	42.3	-16.1	-19.1
Innovation (Readiness)	0.59 0-1	2023	41.1	-53.6	-56.7
ICT Infrastructure	0.70 0-1	2023	29.6	-18.1	-15.3
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.71 0-1	2023	28.9	-14.2	-10.4
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.80 0-1	2023	20.2	-31.8	-35.0
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.81 0-1	2023	19.1	-45.2	-46.7
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.83 0-1	2023	16.9	-35.7	-32.5

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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But what about your location?

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Canada?
Canada: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 37 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Canada's risk?
Canada's highest pressures are climate (55, medium) and governance (37). Its strongest area is social (24).
How might Canada's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 15% of Canada's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 66 to 69 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Canada warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Canada is on track to warm by +5.8 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +61 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +4.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Canada's coast?
Coastal sea level along Canada is projected to rise by +0.29 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.16 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Canada?
The share of Canada under high water stress is projected to move from 1.7% today to 3.5% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Canada?
The share of Canada exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.4% today to 0.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Canada's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.