Climate risk in Toronto
Ontario, Canada
Main risks in Toronto
Heat and earthquakes do not put Toronto in the top quarter of the world's 626 large cities.
Toronto is projected to be 2.7 °C warmer by 2050 if emissions level off. [1]
Higher than 95% of the world's large cities.
For comparison: Harbin +2.9 °C, Seoul +2.8 °C, Dallas +2.8 °C.
The highest of the 6 large cities in Canada.
+2.7 °C Natural Earth Warming by 2050, if emissions level off
This week in Toronto
This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [2] [3]
This week's forecast for the city cannot be shown here right now.
Open the city on the mapThe Earth right now
The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.
Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.
Open the live mapToronto's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [4] [1]
By the 2050s, Toronto's climate will have changed but will still be closer to its own today than to any other large city's. Of the others, Buffalo (United States) comes closest.
+2.1 °C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.2 °C
Average daily high, warmest month
+2.9 °C
Average nightly low, coldest month
+4%
Precipitation over the year
If emissions keep rising, the comparison comes out the same.
Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. 2 of the 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Buffalo. [5]
Everything else measured
From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.
| Reading | Toronto | Among 626 large cities | Rank in Canada (1 = highest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| River flood depth, 100-year event [6] | 13 cm | higher than 87% of large cities | Rank in Canada (1 = highest): 1 of 6 |
| Water stress [7] | High: 40 to 80% of the available water drawn | the same grade as 14% of large cities; higher than 56%, lower than 30% | |
| Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years [8] | moderate shaking, 0.07 g | higher than 54% of large cities | Rank in Canada (1 = highest): 4 of 6 |
| Hottest day of 2025 [9] | 35 °C | higher than 36% of large cities | Rank in Canada (1 = highest): 3 of 6 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [9] | 18 nights | higher than 25% of large cities | Rank in Canada (1 = highest): 1 of 6 |
| Drought risk [7] | Low-Medium | the same grade as 11% of large cities; higher than 1%, lower than 88% | |
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C [9] | 0 days | like 37% of large cities | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [9] | 0 days | like 7% of large cities | |
| Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [10] | 0% | like 80% of large cities | |
| Land burned in an average year [11] | 0% | like 84% of large cities | |
| Tropical cyclone wind, once in 100 years [12] | No hurricane or typhoon reaches here | ||
| Share of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) that a 100-year flood from the sea puts under 0.5 m of water or more [6] | Far from the sea: no coastal flooding |
- Earthquake shaking is given for firm ground in g, the acceleration of gravity: around 0.1 g shaking is strong and can cause light damage, on the US Geological Survey's scale. The figure is the typical value over all the land within 15 km of the centre, not that of one point. Soft ground, such as an old lake bed or river silt, shakes harder.
- Land subsidence comes from a model of satellite radar measurements from 2013 to 2019 in 2 km squares, read over all the land within 15 km of the centre rather than at one point.
- Water stress is the share of the available water drawn every year. Drought risk is how often droughts come, against the area's own usual rain, and how many people and how much farmland they would reach. Both are graded on WRI's own scale.
- Water stress and drought risk have no rank in the country: they are steps of a scale, and many cities share one.
- Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.
Sources
- NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): warming, the 2050s comparison
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS): wildfire near the city now
- TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
- Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
- Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: river flood depth, coastal floods
- Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: water stress, drought risk
- GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
- ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: hottest day, nights, hot days, heavy rain
- Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
- Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land
- IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, ECCC, NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), TerraClimate, WRI, GSHAP, ECMWF, HydroShare, GFED500, IRIS
APA
Criora. (2026). Toronto, Canada: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/CAN/toronto BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_CAN_toronto_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Toronto, Canada: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/CAN/toronto},
urldate = {2026-11-04}
} The figures may be reused on the terms of their sources, which this page names.
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