Climate risk in Ottawa
Ontario, Canada · 1.1M people in the urban area
What threatens Ottawa most
- Earthquake
- Moderate GSHAP
- Drought
- Low-Medium WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Low WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Canada
Ottawa is projected to be +2.7°C warmer by 2050 under moderate emissions.
Toronto: +2.7°C.
Ottawa's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Ottawa's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Montreal (Canada).
+2.2°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.2°C
Highest in the warmest month
+3.6°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+4%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Ottawa would have the climate that Detroit (United States of America) has today.
Its own climate today is 1.1 σ away. How close the match is: 1.2 σ to the climate of Montreal today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Ottawa stands out
1.8 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Toronto: 0.7 m/s².
Higher than in 76% of the world's 627 large cities
Hazards at Ottawa
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Ottawa | Among large cities | In Canada |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 1 day | Among large cities: above 38% | In Canada: 1 of 6 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 8 days | Among large cities: above 21% | In Canada: 3 of 6 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 35.4°C | Among large cities: above 42% | In Canada: 1 of 6 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.7°C | Among large cities: above 93% | In Canada: 3 of 6 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 9 days | Among large cities: above 48% | In Canada: 2 of 6 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Low (<10%) | Among large cities: above 0% | In Canada: 4 of 6 |
| Drought risk | Low-Medium | Among large cities: above 1% | In Canada: 1 of 6 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 1.8 m/s² | Among large cities: above 76% | In Canada: 2 of 6 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Ottawa on the live map
See the earthquake hazard around Ottawa on the live map
1.8 m/s² © OpenStreetMap Cite or embed
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Ottawa, Canada: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/CAN/ottawa BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_CAN_ottawa_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Ottawa, Canada: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/CAN/ottawa},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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