Criora

Climate risk in Montreal

Quebec, Canada

Main risks in Montreal

On earthquakes, Montreal ranks above at least 80% of the world's 626 large cities.

Earthquakes
very strong shaking on firm ground (0.2 g), more on soft ground [1]
Higher than 80% of the world's large cities; 1st of 6 large cities in Canada.
For comparison: Lahore 0.23 g, Yangon 0.15 g, Ghaziabad 0.15 g.
g is the pull of gravity: from about 0.1 g, shaking is strong and can cause light damage to buildings.
0.2 g Natural Earth

Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years

0 0.51 g
See the earthquake hazard around Montreal on the live map 

This week in Montreal

This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [2]

Open the city on the map

The Earth right now

The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.

Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.

Open the live map

Where else Montreal stands out

+2.7 °C

Warming by 2050, if emissions level off [3]

Higher than 93% of the world's large cities; 4th of 6 large cities in Canada.

For comparison: Seoul +2.8 °C, Dallas +2.8 °C, Baghdad +2.6 °C.

Montreal's climate in the 2050s

2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [4] [3]

By the 2050s, Montreal's climate will have changed but will still be closer to its own today than to any other large city's. Of the others, Detroit (United States) comes closest.

+2.3 °C

Mean temperature over the year

+2.2 °C

Average daily high, warmest month

+3.8 °C

Average nightly low, coldest month

+5%

Precipitation over the year

If emissions keep rising, Detroit (United States) comes closest, though the match is only partial.

Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. 1 of the 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Detroit. [5]

Everything else measured

From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.

Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [6] 7 days higher than 40% of large cities Rank in Canada (1 = highest): 3 of 6
Hottest day of 2025 [6] 35.2 °C higher than 39% of large cities Rank in Canada (1 = highest): 2 of 6
Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C [6] 1 day higher than 37% of large cities Rank in Canada (1 = highest): 1 of 6
Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [6] 14 nights higher than 24% of large cities Rank in Canada (1 = highest): 2 of 6
Drought risk [7] Low-Medium the same grade as 11% of large cities; higher than 1%, lower than 88%
Water stress [7] Low: under 10% of the available water drawn lowest grade, like 30% of large cities
River flood depth, 100-year event [8] Dry at the centre; other districts can flood like 85% of large cities
Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [9] 0% like 80% of large cities
Land burned in an average year [10] 0% like 84% of large cities
Tropical cyclone wind, once in 100 years [11] No hurricane or typhoon reaches here
Share of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) that a 100-year flood from the sea puts under 0.5 m of water or more [8] Far from the sea: no coastal flooding
  • Flood depth is given for one 1 km square at the city centre, in today's climate.
  • Land subsidence comes from a model of satellite radar measurements from 2013 to 2019 in 2 km squares, read over all the land within 15 km of the centre rather than at one point.
  • Water stress is the share of the available water drawn every year. Drought risk is how often droughts come, against the area's own usual rain, and how many people and how much farmland they would reach. Both are graded on WRI's own scale.
  • Water stress and drought risk have no rank in the country: they are steps of a scale, and many cities share one.
  • Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.

The nearest large cities

Distance from centre to centre.

Large cities in Canada

Climate risk in Canada 

Sources

  1. GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
  2. Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
  3. NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): warming, the 2050s comparison
  4. TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
  5. Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
  6. ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: heavy rain, hottest day, hot days, nights
  7. Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: drought risk, water stress
  8. Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: river flood depth, coastal floods
  9. Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
  10. Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land
  11. IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind

About these sources 

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Cite this page

In a line

Source: Criora (criora.com), based on GSHAP, ECCC, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, TerraClimate, ECMWF, WRI, HydroShare, GFED500, IRIS

APA

Criora. (2026). Montreal, Canada: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/CAN/montreal

BibTeX

@misc{criora_atlas_CAN_montreal_2026,
  author = {{Criora}},
  title = {Montreal, Canada: climate risk profile},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://criora.com/atlas/CAN/montreal},
  urldate = {2026-11-04}
}

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