Latvia: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 38 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Latvia's risk?

Latvia's highest pressures are governance (52, medium) and climate (47). Its strongest area is nature (20).

How might Latvia's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 98% of Latvia's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Latvia warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Latvia is on track to warm by +4.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +42 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Latvia's coast?

Coastal sea level along Latvia is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.55 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Latvia?

The share of Latvia under high water stress is projected to move from 0.3% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Latvia?

The share of Latvia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.9% today to 0.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Latvia's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Latvia Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Europe
Subregion: Northern Europe
Income: Upper middle income
ISO: LVA

Latvia: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Latvia, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 38 / 100

47 Climate Medium
20 Nature -0.5 Low
27 Social Low
52 Governance Medium
42 Adaptation -2.1 Medium

Which hazards threaten Latvia most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

6.6FloodHigh

Latvia in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Northern Europe

#10 of 10 · median 32

Europe

#22 of 43 · median 38

Upper middle income

#8 of 53 · median 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Latvia: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Latvia is projected to warm +4.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +42 mm.

+4.4 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.7 °C → +4.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.5 °C → +3.6 °C

Hottest month +4.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+42 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +25 mm → +42 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +49 mm → +36 mm

Driest month +3 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

0.3%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.3% → 0.3%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0.3% → 0.3%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0.3% today.

0.1%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.5% → 0.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.8% → 0.6%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.9% today.

Sea level

Latvia: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 2 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.25 m → +0.76 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.24 m → +0.55 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Energy Imports	33.8 % of energy use	2023	91.4	-1.8	-2.8
Flood Risk	6.60 0-10	2026	66.0	+14.0	+7.0
Drought Index (SPEI)	-0.08 index	2021	54.4	+8.0	0.0
Renewable Energy Share	44.0 % of total energy	2021	54.3	-21.1	-23.5
Heating Degree Days	6500 degree days	2020	44.7	+43.3	+7.9
Fossil Fuel Consumption	47.8 % of total	2023	43.5	-22.5	-17.1
Coastal Protection Needed	53.1 % coast	2020	39.1	-45.2	-40.1
Renewable Electricity Share	63.6 % of total	2021	36.4	-38.7	-23.7
N2O Emissions Per Capita	1.24 kt CO2e per capita	2020	28.9	+21.9	+18.3
Land Surface Temperature	7.97 deg C change	2021	25.2	-39.5	-13.2
Energy Intensity	2.88 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	14.9	-4.3	+0.4
Energy Use Per Capita	2370 kg oil eq per capita	2023	14.9	-1.8	-3.2
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	3.65 metric tons	2020	11.5	+3.8	-3.5
PM2.5 Air Pollution	11.6 ug/m3	2020	8.4	-10.8	+0.5
Cooling Degree Days	124 degree days	2020	1.7	-50.1	-2.0
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	0.0
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2023	0.0	-14.6	-9.4

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.94 0-1	2023	94.1	+36.5	+28.2
Agricultural Capacity	0.94 0-1	2023	94.0	+2.2	+11.3
Dam Capacity	0.87 0-1	2023	86.5	-6.8	-5.0
Protected Areas	17.5 % of land	2023	82.4	-6.5	+0.3
Projected Warm Period Change	0.81 0-1	2023	81.3	+13.5	+7.8
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.75 0-1	2023	75.1	-9.1	+15.2
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.72 0-1	2023	72.1	-4.2	+26.0
Food Production Index	104 index	2022	69.1	+2.0	-3.2
Urban Concentration	0.66 0-1	2023	66.2	+8.8	-6.0
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Population Below 5m	0.62 0-1	2023	61.8	+47.0	+52.2
Projected Hydropower Change	0.58 0-1	2023	58.3	+14.6	+12.9
Age Dependency Ratio	0.56 0-1	2023	56.4	+3.6	+4.3
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.54 0-1	2023	54.1	+16.9	+14.5
Water Dependency Ratio	0.52 0-1	2023	51.5	+44.6	+36.3
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.44 0-1	2023	43.6	-18.5	+5.1
Forest Area	54.9 % of land	2022	41.9	-24.4	-22.7
Projected Groundwater Change	0.41 0-1	2023	40.5	+14.3	+14.9
Agricultural Land	31.7 % of land	2022	37.1	-10.2	-13.9
Rural Population	0.34 0-1	2023	33.8	-8.8	+6.0
Energy Import Dependency	0.34 0-1	2023	33.8	+8.1	-15.1
Water Bodies Extent	66.5 % of land	2020	33.5	+11.9	+14.4
Food Import Dependency	0.28 0-1	2023	28.5	+6.8	+11.8
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.21 0-1	2023	20.7	+2.3	+11.1
Protected Biome Areas	0.19 0-1	2023	19.2	-21.8	-0.3
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.19 0-1	2023	19.1	-20.5	-4.6
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.15 0-1	2023	14.9	-24.4	+4.5
Freshwater Withdrawal	1.07 % of internal resources	2021	14.5	-35.8	-35.8
Ecological Footprint	0.13 0-1	2023	12.6	-10.0	+8.6
Agriculture GDP Share	3.91 % of GDP	2023	10.9	-8.0	+4.8
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.08 0-1	2023	8.1	-5.4	-2.3
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.06 0-1	2023	6.1	-24.2	+3.1
Natural Capital Dependency	0.05 0-1	2023	5.4	-16.4	-23.1
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.03 0-1	2023	2.9	-17.5	+0.8
Projected Population Change	0.01 0-1	2023	1.2	-21.1	-7.4
Earthquake Risk	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-34.0	-30.5
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.01 0-1	2023	0.9	-6.5	-6.8
Tree Cover Loss	48422 hectares	2021	0.7	+0.6	+0.5
Dependency Ratio	0.01 0-1	2023	0.6	-6.2	+0.6
Threatened Mammal Species	1.00 count	2018	0.5	-4.7	-1.6
Natural Resource Depletion	0.05 % of GNI	2021	0.1	-2.0	-0.2
Tsunami Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-11.0	0.0
Water Stress	1.07 %	2021	0.0	-0.3	-0.3
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-86.5	-30.8
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	0.0
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	0.0
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Uprooted People	8.90 0-10	2026	89.0	+30.0	+19.5
Education Expenditure	12.7 % of govt	2021	70.3	+0.3	-6.5
Primary School Enrollment	99.4 % gross	2022	64.1	+0.5	+1.0
Overweight Adults	59.3 % adults	2022	60.9	+4.9	+3.5
Hospital Beds	5.30 per 1,000	2020	59.3	-19.7	-6.6
School Gender Parity	1.00 ratio	2020	57.2	+0.4	-2.2
Aging Population	21.3 % population	2023	56.8	+40.4	+3.4
Net Migration	7966 persons	2023	55.3	+0.3	+0.1
GDP Growth	2.85 % annual	2023	48.9	0.0	-1.4
Shared Prosperity Growth	3.43 % annual	2022	47.9	-11.9	-9.7
Income Share Bottom 20%	7.10 %	2022	45.8	+1.4	+9.7
Poverty Rate (National)	22.5 % population	2022	36.8	+4.3	+8.5
Life Expectancy	75.7 years	2023	33.5	-6.0	+18.3
Gini Coefficient	33.7 0-100	2022	31.3	+0.6	+8.2
Gender Labor Ratio	81.8 ratio F/M	2023	23.4	-3.6	+2.1
Labor Participation	76.6 % (15+)	2023	18.6	-11.5	+0.1
Unemployment Rate	6.46 %	2023	18.1	+3.9	+3.1
Sanitation Access	85.2 % population	2021	15.2	-24.8	+4.6
Aid Dependency	1.40 0-10	2026	14.0	-11.0	+8.0
ESG Performance Score	2.43 0-100	2018	13.1	-11.9	-0.1
Fertility Rate	1.36 births per woman	2023	11.8	-11.5	-1.5
Internet Users	92.2 % population	2023	8.8	-12.1	-0.8
Food Security	0.80 0-10	2026	8.0	-10.0	+0.5
Health Conditions	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-4.0	+2.0
Safe Drinking Water	97.1 % population	2022	3.1	-18.4	+1.1
Communicable Disease Deaths	3.04 %	2019	2.7	-13.4	-2.7
Development and Deprivation	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-28.0	+2.0
Children Under 5	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-9.0	-1.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	3.00 per 1,000	2023	1.4	-10.8	-0.5
Adult Literacy Rate	99.9 %	2021	0.2	-6.3	-0.6
Population Density	30.2 people/km2	2022	0.1	-0.4	-0.4
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	0.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	104 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	1690 count	2022	99.8	-0.1	+0.8
R&D Expenditure	0.76 % of GDP	2022	87.8	-0.2	+10.7
Women in Parliament	32.0 % seats	2023	47.8	-10.4	+4.3
Political Stability	0.59 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	38.2	-11.6	+0.2
INFORM Governance Index	3.80 0-10	2026	38.0	-18.0	+1.5
Government Effectiveness	0.70 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	36.1	-15.6	+6.8
Control of Corruption	0.70 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	36.0	-19.6	+1.4
Voice and Accountability	0.99 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	30.1	-18.8	+1.6
Rule of Law	1.04 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	29.2	-23.8	+0.6
Regulatory Quality	1.17 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	26.6	-26.1	-4.8
Legal Rights Strength	9.00 0-12	2019	25.0	-25.0	-25.0
Communication Infrastructure	1.20 0-10	2026	12.0	-8.0	-2.0
Healthcare Access	0.70 0-10	2026	7.0	-30.0	+1.5
Physical Infrastructure	0.70 0-10	2026	7.0	-23.0	+6.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.26 0-1	2023	73.6	-21.1	-0.9
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.46 0-1	2023	53.7	+2.2	+15.6
Education (Readiness)	0.55 0-1	2023	45.3	-27.8	-9.6
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.59 0-1	2023	41.4	-22.9	+1.6
Doing Business Score	0.59 0-1	2023	40.7	-17.7	-3.5
ICT Infrastructure	0.60 0-1	2023	39.6	-8.1	+6.4
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.67 0-1	2023	32.8	-10.3	+0.1
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.71 0-1	2023	28.7	-23.3	+0.6
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.74 0-1	2023	26.3	-26.3	-4.8

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Latvia?
Latvia: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 38 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Latvia's risk?
Latvia's highest pressures are governance (52, medium) and climate (47). Its strongest area is nature (20).
How might Latvia's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 98% of Latvia's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Latvia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Latvia is on track to warm by +4.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +42 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Latvia's coast?
Coastal sea level along Latvia is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.55 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Latvia?
The share of Latvia under high water stress is projected to move from 0.3% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Latvia?
The share of Latvia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.9% today to 0.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Latvia's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.