What drives Estonia's risk?

Estonia's highest pressures are climate (47, medium) and governance (47). Its strongest area is nature (20).

How might Estonia's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 100% of Estonia's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Estonia warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Estonia is on track to warm by +4.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +44 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Estonia's coast?

Coastal sea level along Estonia is projected to rise by +0.62 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.42 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Estonia?

The share of Estonia under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 16% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Estonia?

The share of Estonia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.2% today to 0.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Estonia's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Estonia Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Europe
Subregion: Northern Europe
Income: High income, OECD
ISO: EST

Estonia: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Estonia, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 35 / 100

47 Climate Medium
20 Nature -0.1 Low
24 Social Low
47 Governance Medium
39 Adaptation -0.5 Low

Which hazards threaten Estonia most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

5.4FloodMedium
2.2DRR capacityLow

Estonia in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Northern Europe

#9 of 10 · median 32

Europe

#14 of 43 · median 38

High income: OECD

#13 of 31 · median 37

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Estonia: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Estonia is projected to warm +4.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +44 mm.

+4.4 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.8 °C → +4.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.6 °C → +3.7 °C

Hottest month +4.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+44 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +31 mm → +44 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +47 mm → +40 mm

Driest month +3 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

16%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 16%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0% → 16%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

0.4%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.2% → 0.4%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.4% → 0.2%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.2% today.

Sea level

Estonia: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 3 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.18 m → +0.62 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.18 m → +0.42 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Coastal Protection Needed	100 % coast	2020	100.0	+15.7	+20.8
Coal Electricity Share	44.6 % of total	2023	95.9	+81.3	+86.5
Energy Imports	1.79 % of energy use	2023	87.7	-5.5	-6.5
Renewable Energy Share	38.0 % of total energy	2021	60.5	-14.9	-17.3
Renewable Electricity Share	40.0 % of total	2021	60.0	-15.1	-0.1
Fossil Fuel Consumption	60.9 % of total	2023	58.7	-7.3	-1.9
Drought Index (SPEI)	0.00 index	2021	56.0	+9.6	+1.6
Flood Risk	5.40 0-10	2026	54.0	+2.0	-5.0
Heating Degree Days	6733 degree days	2020	46.3	+44.8	+9.5
N2O Emissions Per Capita	1.37 kt CO2e per capita	2020	32.1	+25.1	+21.5
Energy Intensity	4.12 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	24.6	+5.4	+10.1
Land Surface Temperature	7.69 deg C change	2021	24.6	-40.1	-13.8
Energy Use Per Capita	2881 kg oil eq per capita	2023	18.1	+1.4	0.0
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	5.34 metric tons	2020	16.9	+9.2	+1.9
PM2.5 Air Pollution	6.15 ug/m3	2020	1.6	-17.6	-6.3
Cooling Degree Days	84.6 degree days	2020	1.2	-50.6	-2.5
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Dam Capacity	0.97 0-1	2023	96.6	+3.3	+5.1
Agricultural Capacity	0.95 0-1	2023	95.1	+3.3	+12.4
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.89 0-1	2023	89.4	+31.8	+23.5
Projected Warm Period Change	0.87 0-1	2023	86.6	+18.8	+13.1
Paved Roads	0.82 0-1	2023	82.5	+27.5	+72.4
Protected Areas	20.2 % of land	2023	79.6	-9.3	-2.5
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.77 0-1	2023	76.5	+0.2	+30.4
Urban Concentration	0.67 0-1	2023	67.5	+10.1	-4.7
Food Production Index	106 index	2022	67.5	+0.4	-4.8
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.67 0-1	2023	67.0	-17.2	+7.1
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.58 0-1	2023	58.3	+21.0	+18.7
Age Dependency Ratio	0.56 0-1	2023	56.1	+3.4	+4.0
Freshwater Withdrawal	7.87 % of internal resources	2021	47.7	-2.6	-2.6
Projected Hydropower Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.8	+0.1	-1.6
Projected Groundwater Change	0.43 0-1	2023	43.4	+17.2	+17.8
Forest Area	57.1 % of land	2022	39.6	-26.7	-25.0
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.38 0-1	2023	38.5	-23.6	0.0
Rural Population	0.33 0-1	2023	32.5	-10.1	+4.7
Agricultural Land	23.1 % of land	2022	26.9	-20.4	-24.1
Water Bodies Extent	75.7 % of land	2020	24.3	+2.7	+5.2
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.24 0-1	2023	23.7	-15.9	0.0
Food Import Dependency	0.20 0-1	2023	19.5	-2.2	+2.8
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.16 0-1	2023	16.4	+2.9	+6.0
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.16 0-1	2023	16.3	-2.1	+6.7
Population Below 5m	0.16 0-1	2023	15.8	+1.1	+6.2
Protected Biome Areas	0.15 0-1	2023	15.3	-25.7	-4.2
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.10 0-1	2023	9.7	-29.6	-0.7
Natural Capital Dependency	0.07 0-1	2023	7.5	-14.3	-21.0
Disaster Preparedness	0.07 0-1	2023	7.5	-22.5	-25.0
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.07 0-1	2023	6.7	-0.8	-1.0
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.06 0-1	2023	6.1	-24.2	+3.1
Agriculture GDP Share	1.93 % of GDP	2023	5.4	-13.5	-0.8
Projected Population Change	0.05 0-1	2023	4.8	-17.5	-3.8
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.03 0-1	2023	3.0	-17.4	+0.9
Energy Import Dependency	0.02 0-1	2023	1.8	-23.9	-47.1
Natural Resource Depletion	0.75 % of GNI	2021	1.3	-0.8	+1.0
Earthquake Risk	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-34.0	-30.5
Water Dependency Ratio	0.01 0-1	2023	0.7	-6.2	-14.5
Tree Cover Loss	34004 hectares	2021	0.5	+0.4	+0.3
Threatened Mammal Species	1.00 count	2018	0.5	-4.7	-1.6
Water Stress	10.8 %	2021	0.3	0.0	+0.0
Tsunami Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-11.0	0.0
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-86.5	-30.8
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	0.0
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.8	0.0
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	0.0
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Uprooted People	8.10 0-10	2026	81.0	+22.0	+11.5
Hospital Beds	4.46 per 1,000	2020	66.0	-13.0	+0.1
Education Expenditure	14.3 % of govt	2021	64.8	-5.2	-12.0
Primary School Enrollment	99.3 % gross	2022	64.2	+0.6	+1.1
Overweight Adults	57.2 % adults	2022	58.3	+2.3	+0.9
GDP Growth	-3.02 % annual	2023	58.2	+9.3	+7.9
Shared Prosperity Growth	2.34 % annual	2022	57.6	-2.2	0.0
Aging Population	20.9 % population	2023	55.6	+39.2	+2.2
Net Migration	5717 persons	2023	55.2	+0.2	0.0
School Gender Parity	1.02 ratio	2020	49.2	-7.6	-10.2
Income Share Bottom 20%	7.70 %	2022	37.5	-6.9	+1.4
Poverty Rate (National)	22.5 % population	2022	36.8	+4.3	+8.5
Gini Coefficient	32.3 0-100	2022	26.7	-4.1	+3.6
Life Expectancy	78.5 years	2023	24.7	-14.8	+9.5
Gender Labor Ratio	86.2 ratio F/M	2023	18.8	-8.2	-2.5
Unemployment Rate	6.38 %	2023	17.9	+3.7	+2.8
Food Security	1.30 0-10	2026	13.0	-5.0	+5.5
Labor Participation	81.3 % (15+)	2023	11.4	-18.7	-7.2
Fertility Rate	1.31 births per woman	2023	10.9	-12.4	-2.4
Sanitation Access	90.4 % population	2022	9.8	-30.2	-0.5
Internet Users	93.2 % population	2023	7.6	-13.3	-2.0
ESG Performance Score	2.52 0-100	2018	6.7	-18.3	-6.5
Aid Dependency	0.60 0-10	2026	6.0	-19.0	0.0
Communicable Disease Deaths	3.58 %	2019	3.6	-12.5	-1.8
Safe Drinking Water	97.0 % population	2022	3.2	-18.3	+1.2
Health Conditions	0.30 0-10	2026	3.0	-5.0	+1.0
Children Under 5	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-9.0	-1.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	2.10 per 1,000	2023	0.6	-11.6	-1.3
Population Density	31.6 people/km2	2022	0.2	-0.3	-0.3
Adult Literacy Rate	99.9 %	2021	0.2	-6.3	-0.6
Development and Deprivation	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	0.0
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	0.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	25.0 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	1842 count	2022	99.8	-0.1	+0.8
R&D Expenditure	1.78 % of GDP	2022	70.8	-17.2	-6.3
Women in Parliament	28.7 % seats	2023	53.1	-5.1	+9.6
Legal Rights Strength	7.00 0-12	2019	41.7	-8.3	-8.3
Political Stability	0.66 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	36.8	-13.0	-1.2
Voice and Accountability	1.22 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	25.6	-23.3	-2.9
Government Effectiveness	1.26 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	24.7	-27.0	-4.6
INFORM Governance Index	2.40 0-10	2026	24.0	-32.0	-12.5
Disaster Risk Reduction	2.20 0-10	2026	22.0	-19.5	-13.0
Rule of Law	1.43 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	21.5	-31.5	-7.1
Regulatory Quality	1.43 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	21.4	-31.4	-10.0
Control of Corruption	1.54 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	19.2	-36.4	-15.4
Healthcare Access	1.30 0-10	2026	13.0	-24.0	+7.5
Communication Infrastructure	0.80 0-10	2026	8.0	-12.0	-6.0
Physical Infrastructure	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	-1.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.09 0-1	2023	91.0	-3.7	+16.5
Education (Readiness)	0.43 0-1	2023	57.2	-15.8	+2.3
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.54 0-1	2023	46.3	-5.2	+8.2
Doing Business Score	0.65 0-1	2023	35.1	-23.3	-9.1
ICT Infrastructure	0.67 0-1	2023	33.4	-14.3	+0.2
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.68 0-1	2023	31.6	-11.5	-1.1
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.78 0-1	2023	22.1	-42.2	-17.7
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.79 0-1	2023	21.2	-31.4	-9.9
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.79 0-1	2023	21.1	-30.9	-7.0

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

Score a site in Estonia →

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Estonia.

Where exactly?

Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.

orpinpoint it on the map →

Map of Estonia — Pinpoint on the map Open the map

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Estonia?
Estonia: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 35 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Estonia's risk?
Estonia's highest pressures are climate (47, medium) and governance (47). Its strongest area is nature (20).
How might Estonia's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 100% of Estonia's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Estonia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Estonia is on track to warm by +4.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +44 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Estonia's coast?
Coastal sea level along Estonia is projected to rise by +0.62 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.42 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Estonia?
The share of Estonia under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 16% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Estonia?
The share of Estonia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.2% today to 0.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Estonia's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.