Criora

Portugal

Region Europe Subregion Southern Europe Income High income: OECD ISO PRT

Portugal runs low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Portugal, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Low
36 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    32 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    33 / 100
    ▼ -0.3 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    20 / 100
  4. Governance
    Medium
    50 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    43 / 100
    ▲ + 0.0 5y
Climate futures

Portugal: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Portugal is projected to warm +3.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing -48 mm.

Temperature

+3.0 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.1 °C → +3.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.6 °C → +1.9 °C

Hottest month +4.6 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-48 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+7 mm → -48 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-34 mm → -36 mm

Driest month -1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Portugal: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.24 m → +0.76 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.21 m → +0.55 m

Water stress

75%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
60% → 75%
Current path SSP3-7.0
60% → 82%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 46% today.

River flooding

2.7%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
2.9% → 2.7%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
2.9% → 2.9%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Portugal.

Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Portugal most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Low
3.8 / 10
DRR capacity
Very low
1.9 / 10
Peers

Portugal in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Southern Europe
#2 of 14median 42
  1. 1San MarinoLow 32
  2. 2PortugalLow 36
  3. 3MaltaLow 36
  4. 4AndorraLow 37
  5. 5SloveniaLow 38
  6. 6MontenegroLow 40
  7. 7SpainMedium 41
  8. 8GreeceMedium 43
  9. 9CroatiaMedium 43
  10. 10North MacedoniaMedium 43
region
Europe
#16 of 43median 38
  1. 12IrelandLow 35
  2. 13EstoniaLow 35
  3. 14LithuaniaLow 35
  4. 15AustriaLow 35
  5. 16PortugalLow 36
  6. 17MaltaLow 36
  7. 18AndorraLow 37
  8. 19CzechiaLow 37
  9. 20GermanyLow 37
  10. 21LatviaLow 38
income group
High income: OECD
#15 of 31median 37
  1. 11IsraelLow 35
  2. 12AustraliaLow 35
  3. 13EstoniaLow 35
  4. 14AustriaLow 35
  5. 15PortugalLow 36
  6. 16South KoreaLow 37
  7. 17CzechiaLow 37
  8. 18CanadaLow 37
  9. 19GermanyLow 37
  10. 20NetherlandsLow 38

Put two countries head to head

Compare Portugal against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Portugal?
Portugal runs low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 36 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Portugal's risk?
Portugal's highest pressures are governance (50, medium) and adaptation (43). Its strongest area is social (20).
How might Portugal's climate change by 2080?
Portugal's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Portugal warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Portugal is on track to warm by +3.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -48 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.9 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Portugal's coast?
Coastal sea level along Portugal is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.55 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Portugal?
The share of Portugal under high water stress is projected to move from 46% today to 75% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Portugal?
The share of Portugal exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3% today to 2.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Portugal's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.