What drives Portugal's risk?

Portugal's highest pressures are governance (50, medium) and adaptation (43). Its strongest area is social (20).

How might Portugal's climate change by 2080?

Portugal's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Portugal warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Portugal is on track to warm by +3.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -48 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.9 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Portugal's coast?

Coastal sea level along Portugal is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.55 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Portugal?

The share of Portugal under high water stress is projected to move from 46% today to 75% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Portugal?

The share of Portugal exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3% today to 2.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Portugal's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Portugal Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Europe
Subregion: Southern Europe
Income: High income, OECD
ISO: PRT

Portugal: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Portugal, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 36 / 100

32 Climate Low
33 Nature -0.3 Low
20 Social Low
50 Governance Medium
43 Adaptation +0.0 Medium

Which hazards threaten Portugal most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

3.8FloodLow
1.7DRR capacityVery low

Portugal in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Southern Europe

#2 of 14 · median 42

Europe

#16 of 43 · median 38

High income: OECD

#15 of 31 · median 37

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Portugal: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Portugal is projected to warm +3.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing -48 mm.

+3.0 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.1 °C → +3.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.6 °C → +1.9 °C

Hottest month +4.6 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-48 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +7 mm → -48 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -34 mm → -36 mm

Driest month -1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

75%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 60% → 75%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 60% → 82%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 46% today.

2.7%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 2.9% → 2.7%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 2.9% → 2.9%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3% today.

Sea level

Portugal: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.24 m → +0.76 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.21 m → +0.55 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Energy Imports	77.7 % of energy use	2023	96.6	+3.4	+2.4
Renewable Energy Share	32.3 % of total energy	2021	66.5	-8.9	-11.3
Fossil Fuel Consumption	63.1 % of total	2023	61.2	-4.8	+0.6
Land Surface Temperature	22.8 deg C change	2021	55.7	-9.0	+17.3
Flood Risk	3.80 0-10	2026	38.0	-14.0	-21.0
Renewable Electricity Share	64.9 % of total	2021	35.1	-40.0	-25.0
Heating Degree Days	2549 degree days	2020	17.5	+16.1	-19.3
Cooling Degree Days	949 degree days	2020	13.0	-38.8	+9.3
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	3.78 metric tons	2020	12.0	+4.3	-3.0
Energy Use Per Capita	1845 kg oil eq per capita	2023	11.6	-5.1	-6.5
Energy Intensity	2.31 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	10.4	-8.8	-4.1
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.30 kt CO2e per capita	2020	7.0	0.0	-3.6
PM2.5 Air Pollution	8.45 ug/m3	2020	4.4	-14.8	-3.5
Coal Electricity Share	1.57 % of total	2021	1.6	+1.6	-6.3
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+62.8	+60.4
Protected Areas	17.2 % of land	2023	82.8	-6.1	+0.7
Energy Import Dependency	0.78 0-1	2023	77.7	+52.0	+28.8
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.76 0-1	2023	76.1	-10.4	+45.3
Dam Capacity	0.72 0-1	2023	71.8	-21.5	-19.7
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Urban Concentration	0.65 0-1	2023	65.4	+8.0	-6.8
Agricultural Capacity	0.63 0-1	2023	63.4	-28.4	-19.3
Food Production Index	110 index	2022	63.1	-4.0	-9.2
Forest Area	36.2 % of land	2022	61.8	-4.5	-2.8
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.61 0-1	2023	61.2	+3.6	-4.7
Freshwater Withdrawal	16.1 % of internal resources	2021	61.0	+10.7	+10.7
Projected Warm Period Change	0.59 0-1	2023	58.6	-9.1	-14.9
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.56 0-1	2023	56.5	-27.7	-3.4
Age Dependency Ratio	0.56 0-1	2023	56.4	+3.6	+4.3
Water Dependency Ratio	0.51 0-1	2023	50.9	+44.0	+35.7
Projected Hydropower Change	0.51 0-1	2023	50.6	+6.9	+5.2
Agricultural Land	42.8 % of land	2022	50.3	+3.0	-0.7
Tsunami Risk	4.30 0-10	2026	43.0	+32.0	+43.0
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.36 0-1	2023	35.9	-26.3	-2.6
Rural Population	0.35 0-1	2023	34.6	-8.0	+6.8
Earthquake Risk	3.40 0-10	2026	34.0	-1.0	+2.5
Natural Capital Dependency	0.33 0-1	2023	33.3	+11.5	+4.8
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.31 0-1	2023	30.8	-45.5	-15.3
Food Import Dependency	0.24 0-1	2023	23.8	+2.1	+7.1
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.21 0-1	2023	21.3	-18.3	-2.4
Projected Groundwater Change	0.17 0-1	2023	17.1	-9.1	-8.5
Protected Biome Areas	0.15 0-1	2023	15.3	-25.7	-4.2
Paved Roads	0.14 0-1	2023	14.1	-40.9	+4.0
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.14 0-1	2023	13.8	+6.4	+6.1
Population Below 5m	0.08 0-1	2023	7.8	-7.0	-1.8
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.08 0-1	2023	7.6	-10.8	-2.0
Disaster Preparedness	0.07 0-1	2023	7.5	-22.5	-25.0
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.07 0-1	2023	7.3	-31.9	-3.1
Threatened Mammal Species	13.0 count	2018	6.8	+1.6	+4.7
Agriculture GDP Share	2.11 % of GDP	2023	5.9	-13.0	-0.3
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.06 0-1	2023	5.7	-7.8	-4.7
Projected Population Change	0.05 0-1	2023	5.2	-17.1	-3.4
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.05 0-1	2023	4.9	-15.5	+2.8
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.03 0-1	2023	3.0	-27.3	0.0
Ecological Footprint	0.03 0-1	2023	2.8	-19.8	-1.2
Tree Cover Loss	37224 hectares	2021	0.6	+0.5	+0.4
Forest Depletion	0.09 % of GNI	2021	0.5	+0.4	+0.5
Natural Resource Depletion	0.25 % of GNI	2021	0.4	-1.7	+0.1
Water Stress	12.3 %	2021	0.3	0.0	+0.0
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.3	-6.5	+0.3
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	0.0
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	0.0
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Education Expenditure	9.71 % of govt	2021	80.2	+10.3	+3.4
Hospital Beds	3.53 per 1,000	2020	73.4	-5.6	+7.5
Aging Population	24.1 % population	2023	64.8	+48.4	+11.4
School Gender Parity	1.00 ratio	2020	59.4	+2.5	0.0
Uprooted People	5.60 0-10	2026	56.0	-3.0	-13.5
Net Migration	29102 persons	2023	56.0	+1.0	+0.8
Overweight Adults	54.7 % adults	2022	55.1	-0.9	-2.3
Primary School Enrollment	110 % gross	2022	52.4	-11.2	-10.7
GDP Growth	2.61 % annual	2023	49.3	+0.4	-1.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	6.90 %	2022	48.6	+4.2	+12.5
Shared Prosperity Growth	3.40 % annual	2022	48.2	-11.6	-9.4
Gini Coefficient	36.3 0-100	2022	39.7	+9.0	+16.6
Unemployment Rate	6.51 %	2023	18.2	+4.0	+3.1
Gender Labor Ratio	87.0 ratio F/M	2023	18.1	-8.9	-3.2
Poverty Rate (National)	16.4 % population	2021	17.7	-2.9	+0.8
Labor Participation	77.7 % (15+)	2023	17.1	-13.0	-1.4
Internet Users	85.8 % population	2023	16.0	-4.9	+6.4
Fertility Rate	1.44 births per woman	2023	13.3	-10.0	0.0
Life Expectancy	82.3 years	2023	12.8	-26.7	-2.4
Communicable Disease Deaths	8.52 %	2019	11.3	-4.8	+5.9
ESG Performance Score	2.48 0-100	2018	9.3	-15.7	-3.9
Sanitation Access	92.8 % population	2022	7.4	-32.6	-2.9
Safe Drinking Water	95.2 % population	2022	5.2	-16.3	+3.2
Adult Literacy Rate	96.8 %	2021	5.1	-1.4	+4.3
Food Security	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-14.0	-3.5
Health Conditions	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-4.0	+2.0
Development and Deprivation	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-28.0	+2.0
Recent Shocks	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	+1.0	+2.0
Children Under 5	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-9.0	-1.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	3.20 per 1,000	2023	1.6	-10.6	-0.3
Aid Dependency	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-24.0	-5.0
Population Density	114 people/km2	2022	0.6	+0.1	+0.1
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	0.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	711 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	19623 count	2022	97.8	-2.1	-1.2
Legal Rights Strength	2.00 0-12	2019	83.3	+33.3	+33.3
R&D Expenditure	1.70 % of GDP	2022	72.1	-15.9	-5.0
Women in Parliament	36.1 % seats	2023	41.1	-17.1	-2.4
INFORM Governance Index	3.70 0-10	2026	37.0	-19.0	+0.5
Control of Corruption	0.70 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	36.1	-19.5	+1.5
Political Stability	0.71 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	35.7	-14.1	-2.3
Regulatory Quality	0.76 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	34.9	-17.9	+3.5
Government Effectiveness	0.99 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	30.2	-21.5	+0.9
Rule of Law	1.07 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	28.6	-24.4	0.0
Voice and Accountability	1.21 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	25.8	-23.1	-2.7
Disaster Risk Reduction	1.70 0-10	2026	17.0	-24.5	-18.0
Communication Infrastructure	1.50 0-10	2026	15.0	-5.0	+1.0
Healthcare Access	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-36.0	-4.5
Physical Infrastructure	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	-1.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.33 0-1	2023	67.2	-27.5	-7.3
Education (Readiness)	0.45 0-1	2023	54.7	-18.3	-0.2
Doing Business Score	0.56 0-1	2023	44.1	-14.3	-0.1
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.59 0-1	2023	41.5	-22.8	+1.7
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.65 0-1	2023	34.6	-18.0	+3.5
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.69 0-1	2023	30.7	-12.4	-2.0
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.72 0-1	2023	28.1	-23.9	0.0
ICT Infrastructure	0.72 0-1	2023	28.0	-19.7	-5.2

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Portugal?
Portugal: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 36 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Portugal's risk?
Portugal's highest pressures are governance (50, medium) and adaptation (43). Its strongest area is social (20).
How might Portugal's climate change by 2080?
Portugal's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Portugal warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Portugal is on track to warm by +3.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -48 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.9 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Portugal's coast?
Coastal sea level along Portugal is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.55 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Portugal?
The share of Portugal under high water stress is projected to move from 46% today to 75% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Portugal?
The share of Portugal exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3% today to 2.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Portugal's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.