Climate risk in Lisbon
Lisbon, Portugal · 2.8M people in the urban area
What threatens Lisbon most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Moderate GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Portugal
The sea at Lisbon is projected to rise 232 mm by 2050 under moderate emissions.
Porto: 206 mm.
Lisbon's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Lisbon is projected to have the climate that Tangier (Morocco) has today.
+1.1°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.3°C
Highest in the warmest month
+0.7°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-13%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Lisbon would have the climate that Tangier (Morocco) has today.
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How close the match is: 0.2 σ to the climate of Tangier today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Lisbon
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Lisbon | Among large cities | In Portugal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 5 days | Among large cities: above 19% | |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 31.4°C | Among large cities: above 13% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.3°C | Among large cities: above 7% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 11 days | Among large cities: above 57% | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 232 mm | Among large cities: above 72% | |
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 1.35 m/s² | Among large cities: above 69% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 27.16 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Lisbon on the live map
See the tropical nights around Lisbon on the live map
5 days © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Portugal
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Lisbon, Portugal: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/PRT/lisbon BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_PRT_lisbon_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Lisbon, Portugal: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/PRT/lisbon},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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