What drives Lithuania's risk?

Lithuania's highest pressures are governance (52, medium) and climate (44). Its strongest area is nature (20).

How might Lithuania's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 100% of Lithuania's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Lithuania warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Lithuania is on track to warm by +4.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +36 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.4 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Lithuania's coast?

Coastal sea level along Lithuania is projected to rise by +0.83 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.61 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Lithuania?

The share of Lithuania under high water stress is projected to move from 22% today to 22% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Lithuania?

The share of Lithuania exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.3% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Lithuania's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Lithuania Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Europe
Subregion: Northern Europe
Income: Upper middle income
ISO: LTU

Lithuania: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained, easing recently.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Lithuania, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 35 / 100

44 Climate Medium
20 Nature -1.2 Very low
22 Social Low
52 Governance Medium
40 Adaptation -2.8 Medium

Which hazards threaten Lithuania most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

5.8FloodMedium
4.5DRR capacityMedium

Lithuania in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Northern Europe

#8 of 10 · median 32

Europe

#13 of 43 · median 38

Upper middle income

#2 of 53 · median 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Lithuania: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Lithuania is projected to warm +4.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +36 mm.

+4.3 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.7 °C → +4.3 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.4 °C → +3.4 °C

Hottest month +5.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+36 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +21 mm → +36 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +48 mm → +29 mm

Driest month +4 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

22%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 22% → 22%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 22% → 22%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 22% today.

0.3%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.3% → 0.3%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.5% → 0.5%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.3% today.

Sea level

Lithuania: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 1 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.28 m → +0.83 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.26 m → +0.61 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Energy Imports	72.1 % of energy use	2023	96.0	+2.8	+1.8
Renewable Energy Share	33.2 % of total energy	2021	65.5	-9.9	-12.3
Fossil Fuel Consumption	61.4 % of total	2023	59.3	-6.8	-1.3
Flood Risk	5.80 0-10	2026	58.0	+6.0	-1.0
Drought Index (SPEI)	-0.08 index	2021	54.4	+8.0	0.0
Heating Degree Days	6247 degree days	2020	42.9	+41.4	+6.1
N2O Emissions Per Capita	1.64 kt CO2e per capita	2020	38.3	+31.3	+27.7
Renewable Electricity Share	65.6 % of total	2021	34.4	-40.7	-25.7
Land Surface Temperature	9.16 deg C change	2021	27.6	-37.1	-10.8
Energy Use Per Capita	2340 kg oil eq per capita	2023	14.7	-2.0	-3.4
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	4.16 metric tons	2020	13.2	+5.5	-1.8
Energy Intensity	2.59 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	12.6	-6.6	-1.9
PM2.5 Air Pollution	9.22 ug/m3	2020	5.4	-13.8	-2.5
Cooling Degree Days	188 degree days	2020	2.6	-49.2	-1.1
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	0.0
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	-7.9

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Biome Distribution Change	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+42.4	+34.1
Dam Capacity	0.96 0-1	2023	95.6	+2.3	+4.1
Agricultural Capacity	0.93 0-1	2023	92.5	+0.7	+9.8
Protected Areas	17.8 % of land	2023	82.1	-6.8	0.0
Projected Warm Period Change	0.78 0-1	2023	78.1	+10.3	+4.6
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.77 0-1	2023	77.3	+1.0	+31.2
Food Production Index	99.5 index	2022	73.3	+6.2	+1.0
Energy Import Dependency	0.72 0-1	2023	72.1	+46.4	+23.2
Paved Roads	0.70 0-1	2023	70.5	+15.5	+60.4
Urban Concentration	0.66 0-1	2023	66.3	+8.9	-5.9
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Forest Area	35.2 % of land	2022	62.8	-3.5	-1.8
Agricultural Land	46.5 % of land	2022	54.8	+7.5	+3.8
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.53 0-1	2023	53.1	-31.1	-6.8
Age Dependency Ratio	0.51 0-1	2023	50.6	-2.1	-1.5
Projected Hydropower Change	0.47 0-1	2023	47.2	+3.5	+1.8
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.44 0-1	2023	44.0	+6.8	+4.4
Projected Groundwater Change	0.39 0-1	2023	38.5	+12.3	+12.9
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.38 0-1	2023	38.5	-23.6	0.0
Water Dependency Ratio	0.37 0-1	2023	36.9	+30.0	+21.7
Rural Population	0.34 0-1	2023	33.7	-8.9	+5.9
Disaster Preparedness	0.30 0-1	2023	30.0	0.0	-2.5
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.24 0-1	2023	23.6	+5.3	+14.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.23 0-1	2023	23.3	-16.3	-0.4
Freshwater Withdrawal	1.65 % of internal resources	2021	22.7	-27.6	-27.6
Natural Capital Dependency	0.23 0-1	2023	22.5	+0.7	-6.0
Child Malnutrition	0.20 0-1	2023	20.2	+6.4	+20.2
Food Import Dependency	0.20 0-1	2023	19.7	-2.0	+2.9
Protected Biome Areas	0.20 0-1	2023	19.5	-21.5	0.0
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.10 0-1	2023	9.7	-3.8	-0.7
Population Below 5m	0.09 0-1	2023	9.3	-5.4	-0.3
Ecological Footprint	0.09 0-1	2023	8.8	-13.8	+4.8
Agriculture GDP Share	2.72 % of GDP	2023	7.5	-11.4	+1.3
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.06 0-1	2023	6.1	-24.2	+3.1
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.05 0-1	2023	5.1	-15.3	+3.0
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.05 0-1	2023	4.7	-34.5	-5.7
Dependency Ratio	0.02 0-1	2023	2.1	-4.7	+2.1
Projected Population Change	0.01 0-1	2023	1.5	-20.8	-7.1
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.01 0-1	2023	1.4	-6.1	-6.3
Water Bodies Extent	98.7 % of land	2020	1.3	-20.3	-17.8
Earthquake Risk	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-34.0	-30.5
Threatened Mammal Species	2.00 count	2018	1.0	-4.2	-1.1
Tree Cover Loss	22634 hectares	2021	0.3	+0.2	+0.1
Tsunami Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-11.0	0.0
Natural Resource Depletion	0.01 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-2.1	-0.3
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Water Stress	1.83 %	2021	0.0	-0.3	-0.3
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-86.5	-30.8
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Education Expenditure	12.7 % of govt	2021	69.9	-0.0	-6.9
School Gender Parity	0.98 ratio	2020	64.5	+7.6	+5.1
Uprooted People	6.30 0-10	2026	63.0	+4.0	-6.5
Primary School Enrollment	102 % gross	2022	61.3	-2.3	-1.8
Overweight Adults	58.7 % adults	2022	60.1	+4.1	+2.8
Net Migration	44935 persons	2023	56.6	+1.6	+1.4
Hospital Beds	5.96 per 1,000	2020	54.0	-25.0	-11.9
GDP Growth	0.34 % annual	2023	52.9	+4.0	+2.6
Aging Population	19.9 % population	2023	52.6	+36.2	-0.8
Income Share Bottom 20%	6.80 %	2022	50.0	+5.6	+13.9
Gini Coefficient	36.6 0-100	2022	40.7	+10.0	+17.6
Shared Prosperity Growth	5.27 % annual	2022	31.7	-28.1	-25.9
Life Expectancy	77.0 years	2023	29.4	-10.1	+14.2
Poverty Rate (National)	20.9 % population	2021	24.2	+3.6	+7.3
Gender Labor Ratio	84.4 ratio F/M	2023	20.7	-6.3	-0.6
Unemployment Rate	6.84 %	2023	19.2	+5.0	+4.1
Labor Participation	78.2 % (15+)	2023	16.3	-13.8	-2.3
ESG Performance Score	2.43 0-100	2018	13.1	-11.9	-0.1
Internet Users	88.5 % population	2023	12.9	-8.0	+3.3
Food Security	1.00 0-10	2026	10.0	-8.0	+2.5
Fertility Rate	1.18 births per woman	2023	8.5	-14.8	-4.8
Aid Dependency	0.60 0-10	2026	6.0	-19.0	0.0
Safe Drinking Water	95.0 % population	2022	5.3	-16.2	+3.3
Sanitation Access	95.3 % population	2022	4.8	-35.2	-5.5
Communicable Disease Deaths	3.41 %	2019	3.3	-12.8	-2.1
Health Conditions	0.30 0-10	2026	3.0	-5.0	+1.0
Children Under 5	0.30 0-10	2026	3.0	-8.0	0.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	3.40 per 1,000	2023	1.8	-10.4	-0.1
Development and Deprivation	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-29.0	+1.0
Adult Literacy Rate	99.8 %	2021	0.3	-6.2	-0.5
Population Density	45.2 people/km2	2022	0.2	-0.3	-0.3
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	0.0
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	81.0 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	3133 count	2022	99.7	-0.2	+0.7
R&D Expenditure	1.05 % of GDP	2022	83.0	-5.0	+5.9
Women in Parliament	28.4 % seats	2023	53.7	-4.5	+10.2
Legal Rights Strength	6.00 0-12	2019	50.0	0.0	0.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	4.50 0-10	2026	45.0	+3.5	+10.0
Political Stability	0.74 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	35.2	-14.6	-2.8
Control of Corruption	0.78 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	34.4	-21.2	-0.2
INFORM Governance Index	3.20 0-10	2026	32.0	-24.0	-4.5
Government Effectiveness	1.05 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	29.0	-22.7	-0.3
Voice and Accountability	1.07 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	28.6	-20.3	+0.1
Rule of Law	1.27 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	24.7	-28.3	-3.9
Regulatory Quality	1.34 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	23.2	-29.6	-8.2
Communication Infrastructure	1.10 0-10	2026	11.0	-9.0	-3.0
Healthcare Access	0.50 0-10	2026	5.0	-32.0	-0.5
Physical Infrastructure	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-29.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.14 0-1	2023	86.2	-8.5	+11.7
Education (Readiness)	0.46 0-1	2023	53.9	-19.1	-1.0
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.52 0-1	2023	47.8	-3.7	+9.7
ICT Infrastructure	0.60 0-1	2023	39.6	-8.1	+6.4
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.60 0-1	2023	39.5	-24.8	-0.3
Doing Business Score	0.66 0-1	2023	34.4	-24.0	-9.8
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.70 0-1	2023	30.2	-12.9	-2.5
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.76 0-1	2023	24.2	-27.8	-3.9
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.77 0-1	2023	23.0	-29.6	-8.1

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Lithuania?
Lithuania: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 35 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Lithuania's risk?
Lithuania's highest pressures are governance (52, medium) and climate (44). Its strongest area is nature (20).
How might Lithuania's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 100% of Lithuania's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Lithuania warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Lithuania is on track to warm by +4.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +36 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.4 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Lithuania's coast?
Coastal sea level along Lithuania is projected to rise by +0.83 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.61 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Lithuania?
The share of Lithuania under high water stress is projected to move from 22% today to 22% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Lithuania?
The share of Lithuania exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.3% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Lithuania's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.