Norway: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 29 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Norway's risk?

Norway's highest pressures are governance (44, medium) and climate (41). Its strongest area is nature (15).

How might Norway's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 26% of Norway's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 64 to 68 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Norway warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Norway is on track to warm by +5.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +90 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +4.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Norway's coast?

Coastal sea level along Norway is projected to rise by +0.16 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.02 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Norway?

The share of Norway under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Norway?

The share of Norway exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1% today to 0.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Norway's risk data last updated?

Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Norway Climate risk profile and hazard map

Name: Norway country risk profile
Creator: Criora
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Region: Europe
Subregion: Northern Europe
Income: High income, OECD
ISO: NOR

Norway: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Norway, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 29 / 100

41 Climate Medium
15 Nature -0.1 Very low
22 Social Low
44 Governance Medium
24 Adaptation +1.6 Low

Which hazards threaten Norway most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

5.9FloodMedium
2.2DRR capacityLow

Norway in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Northern Europe

#3 of 10 · median 33

Europe

#4 of 43 · median 38

High income: OECD

#3 of 31 · median 36

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Norway: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Norway is projected to warm +5.1 °C, with annual rainfall changing +90 mm.

+5.1 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.9 °C → +5.1 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +3.2 °C → +4.1 °C

Hottest month +3.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+90 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +71 mm → +90 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +55 mm → +65 mm

Driest month +5 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

0.1%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.2% → 0.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.1% → 0.2%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1% today.

Sea level

Norway: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Bergen, Max depth 0.6 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.00 m → +0.16 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -0.01 m → +0.02 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Drought Index (SPEI)	1.45 index	2023	80.5	+36.4	+32.8
Heating Degree Days	9617 degree days	2024	70.1	+57.1	+32.7
Flood Risk	5.90 0-10	2026	59.0	+7.0	0.0
Coastal Protection Needed	59.2 % coast	2024	54.7	-19.0	-4.3
Fossil Fuel Consumption	0.00 % of total	2024	50.0	0.0	0.0
Renewable Energy Share	61.4 % of total energy	2021	36.2	-39.2	-41.6
Energy Use Per Capita	4775 kg oil eq per capita	2024	27.4	+13.8	+13.0
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	6.73 metric tons	2020	21.4	+13.7	+6.4
Energy Intensity	3.21 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	17.5	-1.7	+3.0
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.65 kt CO2e per capita	2020	15.3	+8.3	+4.7
Land Surface Temperature	-0.44 deg C change	2021	7.9	-56.8	-30.5
PM2.5 Air Pollution	6.06 ug/m3	2020	1.4	-17.8	-6.5
Renewable Electricity Share	99.1 % of total	2021	0.9	-74.2	-59.2
Cooling Degree Days	13.3 degree days	2024	0.2	-53.9	-5.3
Heat Index	0.00 days	2020	0.0	-0.7	0.0
Energy Imports	-704 % of energy use	2023	0.0	-67.5	-68.1
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2023	0.0	-8.3	0.0
Coal Electricity Share	0.08 % of total	2024	0.0	-10.6	-5.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+62.8	+60.4
Agricultural Capacity	0.95 0-1	2023	94.8	+3.0	+12.1
Protected Areas	5.40 % of land	2024	94.6	+6.3	+12.8
Urban Concentration	0.83 0-1	2023	82.8	+25.4	+10.6
Projected Warm Period Change	0.80 0-1	2023	79.6	+11.8	+6.1
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.76 0-1	2023	76.5	+18.9	+10.6
Food Production Index	103 index	2022	70.3	+3.2	-2.0
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Forest Area	33.5 % of land	2023	64.5	-1.8	0.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.61 0-1	2023	61.1	+21.5	+37.4
Age Dependency Ratio	0.51 0-1	2023	51.4	-1.4	-0.7
Population Below 5m	0.43 0-1	2023	43.2	+28.5	+33.6
Projected Groundwater Change	0.37 0-1	2023	36.9	+10.7	+11.3
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.28 0-1	2023	28.2	-34.0	-10.3
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.23 0-1	2023	22.6	-61.6	-37.3
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.22 0-1	2023	22.2	-17.1	+11.8
Projected Population Change	0.21 0-1	2023	21.5	-0.8	+12.9
Paved Roads	0.19 0-1	2023	19.5	-35.5	+9.4
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.18 0-1	2023	17.8	-58.5	-28.3
Protected Biome Areas	0.18 0-1	2023	17.6	-23.4	-1.9
Rural Population	0.17 0-1	2023	17.2	-25.4	-10.6
Food Import Dependency	0.17 0-1	2023	16.7	-5.0	-0.1
Natural Resource Depletion	7.71 % of GNI	2021	13.5	+11.4	+13.2
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.13 0-1	2023	13.0	-5.4	+3.4
Freshwater Withdrawal	0.70 % of internal resources	2022	11.1	-39.2	-40.9
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.10 0-1	2023	9.8	-3.7	-0.6
Natural Capital Dependency	0.10 0-1	2023	9.6	-12.2	-18.9
Agriculture GDP Share	2.08 % of GDP	2024	4.9	-10.8	-0.3
Earthquake Risk	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-31.0	-27.5
Threatened Mammal Species	8.00 count	2022	3.8	-1.4	+1.4
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.03 0-1	2023	3.0	-27.3	0.0
Water Dependency Ratio	0.03 0-1	2023	2.8	-4.1	-12.4
Agricultural Land	2.70 % of land	2023	2.6	-41.7	-44.5
Ecological Footprint	0.03 0-1	2023	2.5	-20.1	-1.5
Disaster Preparedness	0.03 0-1	2023	2.5	-27.5	-30.0
Tree Cover Loss	66325 hectares	2024	1.3	+1.2	+1.2
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.01 0-1	2023	1.2	-19.2	-0.9
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.01 0-1	2023	0.6	-6.9	-7.2
Water Stress	2.04 %	2022	0.1	-0.2	-0.1
Tsunami Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-11.0	0.0
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-86.5	-30.8
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	0.0
Dam Capacity	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-93.3	-91.5
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.8	0.0
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	0.0
Projected Hydropower Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-43.7	-45.4
Energy Import Dependency	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-25.7	-48.9
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Water Bodies Extent	100 % of land	2023	0.0	-32.2	-49.1

		Year		vs world	vs region
Shared Prosperity Growth	0.13 % annual	2022	77.1	+17.3	+19.5
Uprooted People	7.00 0-10	2026	70.0	+11.0	+0.5
Hospital Beds	3.30 per 1,000	2023	68.7	-5.2	+20.0
School Gender Parity	0.98 ratio	2020	67.0	+10.1	+7.6
Primary School Enrollment	98.5 % gross	2024	65.2	+0.9	+2.0
Overweight Adults	57.5 % adults	2022	58.6	+2.6	+1.3
Education Expenditure	14.5 % of govt	2022	56.0	-6.4	-14.0
Net Migration	44356 persons	2024	53.8	+1.7	+1.6
GDP Growth	0.07 % annual	2023	53.3	+4.4	+3.0
Aging Population	18.8 % population	2024	49.6	+32.7	-5.3
Sanitation Access	77.9 % population	2024	24.0	-17.9	+15.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	9.10 %	2023	15.7	-27.9	-20.0
Gender Labor Ratio	89.8 ratio F/M	2024	14.0	-11.4	-6.6
Labor Participation	80.3 % (15+)	2024	13.4	-15.5	-5.7
Fertility Rate	1.45 births per woman	2024	13.3	-9.7	+1.0
Poverty Rate (National)	12.2 % population	2021	11.4	-11.4	-5.2
Unemployment Rate	4.00 %	2024	11.2	-2.9	-3.9
Life Expectancy	83.2 years	2024	10.5	-29.3	-4.1
Food Security	1.00 0-10	2026	10.0	-8.0	+2.5
Gini Coefficient	26.5 0-100	2023	8.8	-23.5	-13.6
Communicable Disease Deaths	7.61 %	2021	7.9	-28.8	-13.9
ESG Performance Score	4.60 0-100	2020	7.8	-8.7	+3.5
Children Under 5	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-9.0	-1.0
Internet Users	99.0 % population	2024	1.1	-18.4	-5.9
Health Conditions	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-7.0	-1.0
Safe Drinking Water	99.1 % population	2024	1.0	-24.2	-1.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	2.50 per 1,000	2024	1.0	-10.9	-1.1
Population Density	15.2 people/km2	2023	0.1	-0.4	-0.4
Development and Deprivation	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	0.0
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	0.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Aid Dependency	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-25.0	-6.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2023	0.0	-5.2	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	946 count	2021	99.9	-0.1	-0.1
Scientific Articles	14069 count	2022	98.4	-1.5	-0.6
R&D Expenditure	1.85 % of GDP	2023	70.9	-16.3	-5.1
Legal Rights Strength	5.00 0-12	2019	58.3	+8.3	+8.3
Political Stability	0.89 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	32.1	-17.7	-5.9
Women in Parliament	44.4 % seats	2024	30.4	-28.7	-16.8
Disaster Risk Reduction	2.20 0-10	2026	22.0	-19.5	-13.0
Physical Infrastructure	1.90 0-10	2026	19.0	-11.0	+18.0
Regulatory Quality	1.60 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	18.0	-34.8	-13.4
Communication Infrastructure	1.60 0-10	2026	16.0	-4.0	+2.0
INFORM Governance Index	1.60 0-10	2026	16.0	-40.0	-20.5
Voice and Accountability	1.78 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	14.5	-34.4	-14.0
Government Effectiveness	1.80 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	14.0	-37.7	-15.3
Rule of Law	1.83 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	13.3	-39.7	-15.3
Control of Corruption	2.11 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	7.7	-47.9	-26.9
Healthcare Access	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-35.0	-3.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Education (Readiness)	0.59 0-1	2023	41.5	-31.5	-13.4
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.67 0-1	2023	32.8	-18.7	-5.3
ICT Infrastructure	0.69 0-1	2023	30.7	-17.0	-2.5
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.72 0-1	2023	27.6	-15.5	-5.1
Doing Business Score	0.77 0-1	2023	23.4	-35.0	-20.8
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.82 0-1	2023	17.9	-34.7	-13.2
Innovation (Readiness)	0.84 0-1	2023	16.3	-78.4	-58.2
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.87 0-1	2023	13.1	-38.9	-15.0
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.91 0-1	2023	8.9	-55.4	-30.9

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Norway: ask your AI assistant

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Norway: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
Northern Europe: which countries are most at risk?

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Norway?
Norway: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 29 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Norway's risk?
Norway's highest pressures are governance (44, medium) and climate (41). Its strongest area is nature (15).
How might Norway's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 26% of Norway's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 64 to 68 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Norway warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Norway is on track to warm by +5.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +90 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +4.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Norway's coast?
Coastal sea level along Norway is projected to rise by +0.16 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.02 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Norway?
The share of Norway under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Norway?
The share of Norway exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1% today to 0.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Norway's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.