+3.5 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.9 °C → +3.5 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.3 °C → +2.6 °C
Hottest month +2.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Iceland Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Europe
- Subregion
- Northern Europe
- Income
- High income, OECD
- ISO
- ISL
Iceland: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained, rising over five years.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Iceland, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Low 28 / 100
5y
- 17 Climate Very low
- 28 Nature -0.5 Low
- 17 Social Very low
- 45 Governance Medium
- 31 Adaptation +4.2 Low
Which hazards threaten Iceland most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 0.0FloodVery low
Iceland in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
2
Northern Europe
#2 of 10 · median 332
Europe
#2 of 43 · median 382
High income: OECD
#2 of 31 · median 36Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Iceland: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Iceland is projected to warm +3.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing +56 mm.
+56 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +40 mm → +56 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +10 mm → +29 mm
Driest month +2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
0%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 0%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 0% → 0%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.
0%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 0%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0% → 0%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.5% today.
Sea level
Iceland: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 3 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.10 m → +0.27 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.10 m → +0.22 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Energy Use Per Capita | 15997 kg oil eq per capita | 100.0 |
Energy Intensity | 11.9 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 85.4 |
Heating Degree Days | 11456 degree days | 83.5 |
Coastal Protection Needed | 62.3 % coast | 58.0 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | 0.22 index | 55.3 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 0.00 % of total | 50.0 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 1.01 kt CO2e per capita | 23.5 |
Renewable Energy Share | 82.4 % of total energy | 14.4 |
Land Surface Temperature | 2.44 deg C change | 13.8 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 3.95 metric tons | 12.5 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 5.11 ug/m3 | 0.3 |
Flood Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Heat Index | 0.00 days | 0.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Cooling Degree Days | 0.06 degree days | 0.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Agricultural Capacity | 1.00 0-1 | 99.9 |
Forest Area | 0.53 % of land | 99.4 |
Protected Areas | 2.90 % of land | 97.1 |
Urban Concentration | 0.94 0-1 | 93.6 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.86 0-1 | 86.0 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.81 0-1 | 81.2 |
Food Production Index | 102 index | 70.9 |
Population Below 5m | 0.68 0-1 | 68.3 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.67 0-1 | 67.3 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Paved Roads | 0.60 0-1 | 59.8 |
Earthquake Risk | 5.40 0-10 | 54.0 |
Water Bodies Extent | 50.0 % of land | 50.0 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.49 0-1 | 49.4 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.47 0-1 | 47.3 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.36 0-1 | 35.9 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.34 0-1 | 34.2 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.31 0-1 | 31.3 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.22 0-1 | 22.1 |
Agricultural Land | 16.2 % of land | 18.4 |
Projected Population Change | 0.18 0-1 | 17.7 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.17 0-1 | 17.4 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.17 0-1 | 17.3 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.13 0-1 | 12.8 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.12 0-1 | 11.9 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 3.98 % of GDP | 9.4 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.07 0-1 | 6.7 |
Rural Population | 0.06 0-1 | 6.4 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 0.17 % of internal resources | 5.8 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.03 0-1 | 3.0 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.03 0-1 | 2.8 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 6.00 count | 2.8 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.00 0-1 | 0.1 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Dam Capacity | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Slum Population | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Tree Cover Loss | 0.00 hectares | 0.0 |
Water Stress | 0.39 % | 0.0 |
Hospital Beds | 2.83 per 1,000 | 78.6 |
School Gender Parity | 0.99 ratio | 64.0 |
Overweight Adults | 57.4 % adults | 58.5 |
Net Migration | 3543 persons | 52.3 |
Education Expenditure | 15.7 % of govt | 51.5 |
Uprooted People | 5.10 0-10 | 51.0 |
GDP Growth | 5.65 % annual | 44.5 |
Primary School Enrollment | 98.2 % gross | 44.2 |
Aging Population | 15.6 % population | 40.5 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 88.0 ratio F/M | 15.9 |
Fertility Rate | 1.56 births per woman | 15.4 |
Gini Coefficient | 26.8 0-100 | 11.9 |
Life Expectancy | 82.8 years | 11.6 |
Unemployment Rate | 3.60 % | 10.1 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 9.40 % | 10.0 |
Food Security | 0.60 0-10 | 6.0 |
ESG Performance Score | 4.76 0-100 | 4.6 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 4.24 % | 2.6 |
Labor Participation | 87.5 % (15+) | 2.4 |
Recent Shocks | 0.20 0-10 | 2.0 |
Children Under 5 | 0.20 0-10 | 2.0 |
Internet Users | 98.2 % population | 2.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 2.80 per 1,000 | 1.3 |
Aid Dependency | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Health Conditions | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Undernourishment | 2.50 % population | 0.0 |
Population Density | 3.82 people/km2 | 0.0 |
Safe Drinking Water | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Patent Applications | 34.0 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 766 count | 99.9 |
Legal Rights Strength | 4.00 0-12 | 66.7 |
R&D Expenditure | 2.64 % of GDP | 58.5 |
Women in Parliament | 46.0 % seats | 27.8 |
Physical Infrastructure | 2.60 0-10 | 26.0 |
Political Stability | 1.21 -2.5 to +2.5 | 25.7 |
Regulatory Quality | 1.28 -2.5 to +2.5 | 24.3 |
Voice and Accountability | 1.45 -2.5 to +2.5 | 21.1 |
INFORM Governance Index | 2.00 0-10 | 20.0 |
Control of Corruption | 1.55 -2.5 to +2.5 | 19.0 |
Government Effectiveness | 1.56 -2.5 to +2.5 | 18.9 |
Rule of Law | 1.72 -2.5 to +2.5 | 15.6 |
Communication Infrastructure | 1.40 0-10 | 14.0 |
Healthcare Access | 0.20 0-10 | 2.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.44 0-1 | 56.3 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.51 0-1 | 49.1 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.69 0-1 | 31.3 |
Doing Business Score | 0.70 0-1 | 29.9 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.72 0-1 | 28.4 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.76 0-1 | 24.1 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.78 0-1 | 22.1 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.78 0-1 | 21.8 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.85 0-1 | 15.3 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Iceland →But what about your location?
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Where exactly?
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Iceland: ask your AI assistant
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- Iceland: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
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Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Iceland?
Iceland: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained, rising over five years. Its overall risk score is 28 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Iceland's risk?
Iceland's highest pressures are governance (45, medium) and adaptation (31). Its strongest area is social (17).
How might Iceland's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 66% of Iceland's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 50 to 65 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Iceland warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Iceland is on track to warm by +3.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +56 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Iceland's coast?
Coastal sea level along Iceland is projected to rise by +0.27 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.22 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Iceland?
The share of Iceland under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Iceland?
The share of Iceland exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.5% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Iceland's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.