What drives New Zealand's risk?

New Zealand's highest pressures are governance (42, medium) and nature (37). Its strongest area is social (16).

How might New Zealand's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 14% of New Zealand's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will New Zealand warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), New Zealand is on track to warm by +2.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +67 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along New Zealand's coast?

Coastal sea level along New Zealand is projected to rise by +0.85 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.60 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in New Zealand?

The share of New Zealand under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in New Zealand?

The share of New Zealand exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.5% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was New Zealand's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

New Zealand Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Oceania
Subregion: Australia and New Zealand
Income: High income, OECD
ISO: NZL

New Zealand: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained, rising over five years.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is New Zealand, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 32 / 100

34 Climate Low
37 Nature +0.1 Low
16 Social Very low
42 Governance Medium
31 Adaptation +9.8 Low

Which hazards threaten New Zealand most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

3.7FloodLow
1.6DRR capacityVery low

New Zealand in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Australia and New Zealand

#1 of 2 · median 34

Oceania

#1 of 14 · median 43

High income: OECD

#7 of 31 · median 37

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

New Zealand: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, New Zealand is projected to warm +2.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +67 mm.

+2.4 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +1.5 °C → +2.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.3 °C → +1.6 °C

Hottest month +2.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+67 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +29 mm → +67 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +24 mm → +44 mm

Driest month +4 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

0.3%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.3% → 0.3%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.3% → 0.2%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.5% today.

Sea level

New Zealand: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.26 m → +0.85 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.23 m → +0.60 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Energy Imports	31.5 % of energy use	2023	91.2	-2.0	+14.2
Renewable Energy Share	28.9 % of total energy	2021	70.0	-5.4	-10.8
N2O Emissions Per Capita	2.93 kt CO2e per capita	2020	68.4	+61.4	+63.9
Coastal Protection Needed	68.8 % coast	2020	59.5	-24.8	-34.8
Fossil Fuel Consumption	55.4 % of total	2023	52.3	-13.8	-20.2
Land Surface Temperature	14.4 deg C change	2021	38.5	-26.2	-24.4
Flood Risk	3.70 0-10	2026	37.0	-15.0	+37.0
Heating Degree Days	4927 degree days	2020	33.9	+32.4	+33.9
Energy Use Per Capita	3626 kg oil eq per capita	2023	22.8	+6.1	-4.6
Energy Intensity	3.52 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	19.9	+0.7	-13.8
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	6.16 metric tons	2020	19.6	+11.9	+16.4
Renewable Electricity Share	81.4 % of total	2021	18.6	-56.5	-65.3
Coal Electricity Share	2.45 % of total	2023	4.1	-10.5	-47.9
PM2.5 Air Pollution	6.49 ug/m3	2020	2.0	-17.2	-6.4
Cooling Degree Days	75.3 degree days	2020	1.0	-50.8	-69.8
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	-52.1

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+62.8	+12.5
Urban Concentration	0.86 0-1	2023	86.0	+28.6	+31.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.85 0-1	2023	85.1	+45.5	-4.3
Food Production Index	101 index	2022	72.3	+5.2	-0.1
Protected Areas	30.6 % of land	2023	69.4	-19.5	-30.3
Projected Warm Period Change	0.67 0-1	2023	66.8	-1.0	-2.2
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Agricultural Capacity	0.62 0-1	2023	61.6	-30.2	-31.5
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.61 0-1	2023	61.2	+3.6	+13.0
Earthquake Risk	6.10 0-10	2026	61.0	+26.0	+45.5
Forest Area	37.7 % of land	2022	60.1	-6.2	+7.6
Tsunami Risk	5.40 0-10	2026	54.0	+43.0	-5.5
Age Dependency Ratio	0.52 0-1	2023	51.7	-1.0	-9.6
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.51 0-1	2023	50.8	-33.4	-34.4
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.47 0-1	2023	47.0	-29.3	-38.6
Projected Hydropower Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.7	0.0	0.0
Agricultural Land	37.0 % of land	2022	43.5	-3.8	+21.6
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.39 0-1	2023	38.6	-47.9	-51.9
Paved Roads	0.34 0-1	2023	34.1	-20.9	-42.5
Freshwater Withdrawal	3.02 % of internal resources	2021	32.0	-18.3	+15.4
Energy Import Dependency	0.32 0-1	2023	31.5	+5.8	+15.8
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.31 0-1	2023	30.8	-31.3	-30.7
Projected Groundwater Change	0.29 0-1	2023	28.7	+2.5	+1.6
Water Bodies Extent	72.2 % of land	2020	27.8	+6.2	+21.6
Ecological Footprint	0.25 0-1	2023	24.7	+2.1	-27.3
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.22 0-1	2023	22.4	+4.0	-7.3
Projected Population Change	0.20 0-1	2023	20.1	-2.2	-0.0
Population Below 5m	0.20 0-1	2023	19.9	+5.1	-80.1
Food Import Dependency	0.17 0-1	2023	17.4	-4.3	-18.3
Dam Capacity	0.17 0-1	2023	16.9	-76.4	-79.4
Protected Biome Areas	0.16 0-1	2023	16.1	-24.9	-28.5
Rural Population	0.14 0-1	2023	14.0	-28.6	-31.0
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.11 0-1	2023	11.4	-27.9	-46.3
Agriculture GDP Share	4.57 % of GDP	2022	10.6	-6.0	-27.1
Disaster Preparedness	0.10 0-1	2023	10.0	-20.0	-30.0
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.10 0-1	2023	9.6	-3.9	-78.3
Threatened Mammal Species	9.00 count	2018	4.7	-0.5	+2.4
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.03 0-1	2023	2.6	-4.8	+1.5
Natural Capital Dependency	0.01 0-1	2023	1.3	-20.5	-12.1
Tree Cover Loss	66243 hectares	2021	1.0	+0.9	+1.0
Natural Resource Depletion	0.44 % of GNI	2021	0.8	-1.3	+0.2
Water Stress	8.05 %	2021	0.2	-0.1	+0.2
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	-0.5
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	-13.7
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	0.0
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-20.4	-59.0
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-30.3	-9.1
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	0.0
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	2.66 per 1,000	2021	81.4	-2.5	0.0
Overweight Adults	67.4 % adults	2022	71.1	+15.1	-5.2
Primary School Enrollment	96.6 % gross	2022	67.3	+3.7	+2.5
Education Expenditure	13.1 % of govt	2022	64.8	-0.1	-1.0
Net Migration	21404 persons	2023	55.8	+0.8	+0.8
GDP Growth	1.39 % annual	2023	51.2	+2.3	+1.5
School Gender Parity	1.03 ratio	2020	47.0	-9.9	-1.5
Aging Population	16.8 % population	2023	43.8	+27.4	+31.8
Uprooted People	3.00 0-10	2026	30.0	-29.0	+30.0
Gender Labor Ratio	87.8 ratio F/M	2023	17.2	-9.8	-1.6
Fertility Rate	1.56 births per woman	2023	15.5	-7.8	-28.7
Food Security	1.40 0-10	2026	14.0	-4.0	+4.0
Sanitation Access	88.7 % population	2022	11.6	-28.4	-47.1
Life Expectancy	83.0 years	2023	10.6	-28.9	-46.0
Unemployment Rate	3.73 %	2023	10.3	-3.9	+0.1
Labor Participation	83.3 % (15+)	2023	8.4	-21.7	-35.1
ESG Performance Score	2.50 0-100	2018	7.9	-17.1	-15.7
Communicable Disease Deaths	4.35 %	2019	4.8	-11.3	-11.8
Internet Users	96.2 % population	2023	4.3	-16.6	-34.3
Children Under 5	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-7.0	-12.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	4.70 per 1,000	2023	2.9	-9.3	-13.7
Health Conditions	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-7.0	-39.0
Recent Shocks	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	0.0	0.0
Population Density	19.4 people/km2	2022	0.1	-0.4	-0.2
Aid Dependency	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-25.0	-60.5
Development and Deprivation	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	-41.5
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Safe Drinking Water	100 % population	2022	0.0	-21.5	-61.9
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	-8.4

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	330 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	9214 count	2022	99.0	-0.9	-1.0
R&D Expenditure	1.47 % of GDP	2021	75.2	-11.6	+3.4
Women in Parliament	44.3 % seats	2023	27.7	-30.5	-57.1
Political Stability	1.36 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	22.8	-27.0	-5.6
Physical Infrastructure	2.00 0-10	2026	20.0	-10.0	-3.0
Government Effectiveness	1.53 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	19.4	-32.3	-30.6
Voice and Accountability	1.69 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	16.2	-32.7	-12.8
Disaster Risk Reduction	1.60 0-10	2026	16.0	-25.5	-28.0
Rule of Law	1.71 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	15.9	-37.1	-21.8
INFORM Governance Index	1.50 0-10	2026	15.0	-41.0	-37.5
Communication Infrastructure	1.40 0-10	2026	14.0	-6.0	-10.5
Regulatory Quality	1.91 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	11.8	-41.0	-42.8
Healthcare Access	1.10 0-10	2026	11.0	-26.0	-34.0
Control of Corruption	2.08 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	8.3	-47.3	-30.7
Legal Rights Strength	12.0 0-12	2019	0.0	-50.0	-16.7

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.31 0-1	2023	69.1	-25.6	-14.4
Education (Readiness)	0.46 0-1	2023	53.9	-19.1	-20.4
ICT Infrastructure	0.67 0-1	2023	33.4	-14.3	-23.8
Doing Business Score	0.73 0-1	2023	26.9	-31.5	-33.9
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.80 0-1	2023	19.6	-23.5	-4.8
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.84 0-1	2023	15.6	-36.4	-21.4
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.88 0-1	2023	11.7	-40.9	-42.4
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.90 0-1	2023	9.6	-54.7	-35.3

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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But what about your location?

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Where exactly?

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is New Zealand?
New Zealand: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained, rising over five years. Its overall risk score is 32 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives New Zealand's risk?
New Zealand's highest pressures are governance (42, medium) and nature (37). Its strongest area is social (16).
How might New Zealand's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 14% of New Zealand's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will New Zealand warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), New Zealand is on track to warm by +2.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +67 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along New Zealand's coast?
Coastal sea level along New Zealand is projected to rise by +0.85 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.60 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in New Zealand?
The share of New Zealand under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in New Zealand?
The share of New Zealand exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.5% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was New Zealand's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.