Criora

New Zealand

Region Oceania Subregion Australia and New Zealand Income High income: OECD ISO NZL

New Zealand runs low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained, rising over five years.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is New Zealand, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Low
32 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    34 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    37 / 100
    ▲ + 0.1 5y
  3. Social
    Very low
    16 / 100
  4. Governance
    Medium
    42 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Low
    31 / 100
    ▲ + 9.8 5y
Climate futures

New Zealand: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, New Zealand is projected to warm +2.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +67 mm.

Temperature

+2.4 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+1.5 °C → +2.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.3 °C → +1.6 °C

Hottest month +2.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+67 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+29 mm → +67 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+24 mm → +44 mm

Driest month +4 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

New Zealand: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.26 m → +0.85 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.23 m → +0.60 m

Water stress

0%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0
0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

River flooding

0.3%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.3% → 0.3%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0.3% → 0.2%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.5% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside New Zealand.

Where exactly?

Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.

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Pinpoint on the map Map of New Zealand Open the map →
Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten New Zealand most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Low
3.7 / 10
DRR capacity
Very low
1.3 / 10
Peers

New Zealand in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Australia and New Zealand
#1 of 2median 34
  1. 1New ZealandLow 32
  2. 2AustraliaLow 35
region
Oceania
#1 of 14median 44
  1. 1New ZealandLow 32
  2. 2AustraliaLow 35
  3. 3PalauLow 39
  4. 4FijiMedium 40
  5. 5SamoaMedium 42
  6. 6NauruMedium 42
  7. 7TuvaluMedium 43
  8. 8TongaMedium 46
  9. 9KiribatiMedium 46
  10. 10Marshall Is.Medium 47
income group
High income: OECD
#7 of 31median 37
  1. 3NorwayLow 29
  2. 4LuxembourgLow 30
  3. 5FinlandLow 30
  4. 6SwedenLow 31
  5. 7New ZealandLow 32
  6. 8SwitzerlandLow 32
  7. 9United KingdomLow 33
  8. 10IrelandLow 35
  9. 11IsraelLow 35
  10. 12AustraliaLow 35

Put two countries head to head

Compare New Zealand against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare ↗ Score a site here
Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is New Zealand?
New Zealand runs low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained, rising over five years. Its overall risk score is 32 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives New Zealand's risk?
New Zealand's highest pressures are governance (42, medium) and nature (37). Its strongest area is social (16).
How might New Zealand's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 14% of New Zealand's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will New Zealand warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), New Zealand is on track to warm by +2.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +67 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along New Zealand's coast?
Coastal sea level along New Zealand is projected to rise by +0.85 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.60 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in New Zealand?
The share of New Zealand under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in New Zealand?
The share of New Zealand exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.5% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was New Zealand's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.