Samoa: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 41 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Samoa's risk?

Samoa's highest pressures are governance (61, high) and adaptation (57). Its strongest area is climate (18).

How might Samoa's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 21% of Samoa's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Samoa warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Samoa is on track to warm by +2.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +74 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Samoa's coast?

Coastal sea level along Samoa is projected to rise by +0.95 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.73 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Samoa?

The share of Samoa exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Samoa's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Samoa Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Oceania
Subregion: Polynesia
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: WSM

Samoa: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Samoa, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 41 / 100

18 Climate Very low
37 Nature +2.2 Low
33 Social Low
61 Governance High
57 Adaptation -0.1 Medium

Which hazards threaten Samoa most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

0.0FloodVery low
4.3DRR capacityMedium

Samoa in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Polynesia

#1 of 3 · median 42

Oceania

#5 of 14 · median 43

Lower middle income

#5 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Samoa: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Samoa is projected to warm +2.1 °C, with annual rainfall changing +74 mm.

+2.1 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +1.4 °C → +2.1 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.2 °C → +1.5 °C

Hottest month +2.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+74 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +101 mm → +74 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +140 mm → +89 mm

Driest month -3 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0% → 0%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.

Sea level

Samoa: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 1 of its largest cities.

Apia, Max depth 2.1 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.31 m → +0.95 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.28 m → +0.73 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Coastal Protection Needed	95.7 % coast	2020	94.4	+10.1	+0.1
Cooling Degree Days	5004 degree days	2020	68.5	+16.7	-2.3
Renewable Energy Share	35.9 % of total energy	2022	63.0	-5.4	-18.3
Land Surface Temperature	25.7 deg C change	2021	61.7	-3.0	-1.2
Access to Clean Fuels	39.6 % population	2022	60.4	+50.1	+8.3
Renewable Electricity Share	49.1 % of total	2021	50.9	-24.2	-33.0
Energy Intensity	5.40 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	34.5	+15.3	+0.9
PM2.5 Air Pollution	12.6 ug/m3	2020	9.5	-9.7	+1.1
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.24 kt CO2e per capita	2020	5.6	-1.4	+1.1
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.97 metric tons	2020	3.0	-4.7	-0.3
Flood Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-52.0	0.0
Heating Degree Days	0.00 degree days	2020	0.0	-1.4	0.0
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Protected Areas	0.30 % of land	2023	99.7	+10.8	0.0
Dam Capacity	0.99 0-1	2023	98.8	+5.5	+2.5
Agricultural Capacity	0.97 0-1	2023	96.9	+5.1	+3.8
Disaster Preparedness	0.95 0-1	2023	95.0	+65.0	+55.0
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.91 0-1	2023	90.6	+4.1	+0.1
Rural Population	0.89 0-1	2023	88.9	+46.3	+43.9
Food Production Index	83.0 index	2022	88.8	+21.7	+16.4
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.89 0-1	2023	88.7	+4.5	+3.5
Paved Roads	0.87 0-1	2023	86.7	+31.7	+10.1
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.86 0-1	2023	86.2	+9.9	+0.6
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.75 0-1	2023	75.4	+38.2	-12.0
Age Dependency Ratio	0.75 0-1	2023	75.2	+22.5	+13.9
Projected Warm Period Change	0.70 0-1	2023	70.3	+2.5	+1.3
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.58 0-1	2023	57.7	+18.5	0.0
Population Below 5m	0.53 0-1	2023	53.2	+38.5	-46.8
Food Import Dependency	0.48 0-1	2023	47.8	+26.1	+12.1
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.45 0-1	2023	45.1	+31.6	-42.7
Earthquake Risk	4.40 0-10	2026	44.0	+9.0	+28.5
Tsunami Risk	4.20 0-10	2026	42.0	+31.0	-17.5
Protected Biome Areas	0.40 0-1	2023	40.1	-0.9	-4.5
Forest Area	57.8 % of land	2022	38.8	-27.5	-13.7
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.38 0-1	2023	38.4	+18.0	-20.6
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.34 0-1	2023	33.9	+15.5	+4.2
Agriculture GDP Share	11.0 % of GDP	2023	30.5	+11.6	-9.4
Natural Capital Dependency	0.24 0-1	2023	23.7	+1.9	+10.3
Dependency Ratio	0.24 0-1	2023	23.6	+16.8	-65.9
Projected Groundwater Change	0.21 0-1	2023	21.3	-4.9	-5.8
Agricultural Land	17.8 % of land	2022	20.6	-26.7	-1.3
Projected Population Change	0.19 0-1	2023	18.6	-3.7	-1.5
Child Malnutrition	0.13 0-1	2023	12.8	-1.0	-0.8
Urban Concentration	0.11 0-1	2023	11.1	-46.3	-43.9
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.09 0-1	2023	9.1	-21.2	0.0
Forest Depletion	0.29 % of GNI	2021	1.6	+1.5	+1.2
Threatened Mammal Species	2.00 count	2018	1.0	-4.2	-1.4
Natural Resource Depletion	0.29 % of GNI	2021	0.5	-1.6	-0.2
Water Bodies Extent	100 % of land	2020	0.0	-21.6	-6.2
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	0.0
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Unmet Contraception Need	38.9 %	2020	100.0	+47.0	+19.5
Overweight Adults	87.7 % adults	2022	96.6	+40.6	+20.3
Labor Participation	46.3 % (15+)	2023	65.1	+35.0	+21.6
Sanitation Access	42.9 % population	2022	58.7	+18.7	0.0
Aid Dependency	5.80 0-10	2026	58.0	+33.0	-2.5
Fertility Rate	3.83 births per woman	2023	57.4	+34.1	+13.2
Net Migration	-2810 persons	2023	54.9	-0.1	-0.1
Gender Labor Ratio	55.7 ratio F/M	2023	50.2	+23.2	+31.4
Internet Users	58.1 % population	2023	47.1	+26.2	+8.5
Health Conditions	4.70 0-10	2026	47.0	+39.0	+7.0
Education Expenditure	13.7 % of govt	2023	46.9	-0.2	0.0
Life Expectancy	71.7 years	2023	46.0	+6.5	-10.6
Development and Deprivation	4.50 0-10	2026	45.0	+15.0	+3.5
Safe Drinking Water	62.2 % population	2022	40.3	+18.8	-21.6
GDP Growth	9.21 % annual	2023	38.9	-10.0	-10.9
Primary School Enrollment	102 % gross	2023	38.5	-3.5	-0.3
Poverty Rate (National)	21.9 % population	2018	33.6	+0.6	0.0
Communicable Disease Deaths	10.4 %	2019	14.2	-1.9	-2.4
Unemployment Rate	4.98 %	2023	13.9	-0.3	+3.7
Under-5 Mortality Rate	15.7 per 1,000	2023	12.6	+0.4	-4.0
Aging Population	5.71 % population	2023	11.9	-4.5	-0.0
Children Under 5	1.00 0-10	2026	10.0	-1.0	-6.0
Food Security	0.90 0-10	2026	9.0	-9.0	-1.0
ESG Performance Score	2.49 0-100	2018	8.6	-16.4	-15.0
Undernourishment	5.40 % population	2022	5.9	+0.1	-2.5
Adult Literacy Rate	99.1 %	2021	1.4	-5.1	0.0
Population Density	77.4 people/km2	2022	0.4	-0.1	+0.1
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	-1.0
Uprooted People	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-59.0	0.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	1.00 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	16.2 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
Women in Parliament	13.0 % seats	2023	78.8	+20.6	-6.0
Healthcare Access	5.70 0-10	2026	57.0	+20.0	+12.0
Regulatory Quality	-0.27 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	55.4	+2.6	+0.8
Disaster Risk Reduction	4.30 0-10	2026	43.0	+1.5	-1.0
INFORM Governance Index	4.10 0-10	2026	41.0	-15.0	-11.5
Government Effectiveness	0.49 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	40.1	-11.6	-9.9
Control of Corruption	0.73 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	35.5	-20.1	-3.5
Rule of Law	0.90 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	32.0	-21.0	-5.6
Voice and Accountability	1.02 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	29.6	-19.3	+0.7
Communication Infrastructure	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	+9.0	+4.5
Political Stability	1.10 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	28.0	-21.8	-0.4
Legal Rights Strength	9.00 0-12	2019	25.0	-25.0	+8.3
Physical Infrastructure	1.60 0-10	2026	16.0	-14.0	-7.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.02 0-1	2023	97.8	+3.1	+14.3
Education (Readiness)	0.08 0-1	2023	92.1	+19.0	+17.8
ICT Infrastructure	0.41 0-1	2023	59.0	+11.3	+1.9
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.45 0-1	2023	54.9	+2.3	+0.8
Doing Business Score	0.50 0-1	2023	50.1	-8.3	-10.7
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.59 0-1	2023	40.8	-23.5	-4.1
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.69 0-1	2023	31.4	-20.6	-5.6
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.76 0-1	2023	24.1	-19.0	-0.3

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Samoa?
Samoa: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 41 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Samoa's risk?
Samoa's highest pressures are governance (61, high) and adaptation (57). Its strongest area is climate (18).
How might Samoa's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 21% of Samoa's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Samoa warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Samoa is on track to warm by +2.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +74 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Samoa's coast?
Coastal sea level along Samoa is projected to rise by +0.95 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.73 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Samoa?
The share of Samoa exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Samoa's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.