+4.6 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +3.9 °C → +4.6 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.5 °C → +3.6 °C
Hottest month +5.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Belarus Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Europe
- Subregion
- Eastern Europe
- Income
- Upper middle income
- ISO
- BLR
Belarus: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, rising over five years.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Belarus, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 41 / 100
5y
- 46 Climate Medium
- 21 Nature -1.5 Low
- 20 Social Low
- 64 Governance High
- 54 Adaptation +7.1 Medium
Which hazards threaten Belarus most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 5.8FloodMedium
- 3.0DRR capacityLow
Belarus in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
3
Eastern Europe
#3 of 10 · median 4329
Europe
#29 of 43 · median 3815
Upper middle income
#15 of 53 · median 44Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Belarus: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Belarus is projected to warm +4.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing +20 mm.
+20 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +13 mm → +20 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +34 mm → +29 mm
Driest month +4 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
9.9%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 5.5% → 9.9%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 5.5% → 6.7%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 5.5% today.
0.3%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0.4% → 0.3%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0.4% → 0.6%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.6% today.
Sea level
Landlocked, not applicable.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Renewable Electricity Share | 3.15 % of total | 96.9 |
Renewable Energy Share | 8.20 % of total energy | 91.5 |
Energy Imports | 77.1 % of energy use | 75.0 |
Flood Risk | 5.80 0-10 | 58.0 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 0.00 % of total | 50.0 |
Heating Degree Days | 6208 degree days | 45.2 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -0.49 index | 40.8 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 1.70 kt CO2e per capita | 39.6 |
Land Surface Temperature | 10.3 deg C change | 30.1 |
Energy Intensity | 6.18 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 28.9 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 5.84 metric tons | 18.6 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 2856 kg oil eq per capita | 17.1 |
Methane Emissions Per Capita | 1.82 kt CO2e per capita | 14.5 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 14.6 ug/m3 | 12.1 |
Cooling Degree Days | 404 degree days | 5.4 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 99.7 % population | 0.3 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.06 % of total | 0.1 |
Heat Index | 0.00 days | 0.0 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.96 0-1 | 95.7 |
Dam Capacity | 0.91 0-1 | 91.5 |
Protected Areas | 9.40 % of land | 90.6 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.82 0-1 | 82.4 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.79 0-1 | 79.4 |
Urban Concentration | 0.79 0-1 | 79.2 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.77 0-1 | 77.1 |
Food Production Index | 103 index | 70.4 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.62 0-1 | 61.9 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.59 0-1 | 59.0 |
Forest Area | 43.4 % of land | 54.0 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.52 0-1 | 51.9 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.48 0-1 | 48.1 |
Agricultural Land | 39.6 % of land | 45.5 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.44 0-1 | 43.7 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.41 0-1 | 41.3 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 4.16 % of internal resources | 38.0 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.31 0-1 | 31.5 |
Water Bodies Extent | 69.2 % of land | 30.8 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.25 0-1 | 25.4 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.25 0-1 | 25.2 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.25 0-1 | 25.2 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.24 0-1 | 23.8 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.23 0-1 | 22.6 |
Rural Population | 0.21 0-1 | 20.8 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 6.87 % of GDP | 16.2 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.16 0-1 | 15.9 |
Paved Roads | 0.14 0-1 | 13.6 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.12 0-1 | 12.2 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.07 0-1 | 7.5 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.07 0-1 | 7.0 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.07 0-1 | 6.9 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.06 0-1 | 6.1 |
Projected Population Change | 0.05 0-1 | 5.5 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.05 0-1 | 5.4 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.04 0-1 | 3.6 |
Slum Population | 0.02 0-1 | 2.3 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 4.00 count | 1.9 |
Tree Cover Loss | 71159 hectares | 1.4 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 0.67 % of GNI | 1.2 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.01 0-1 | 0.5 |
Water Stress | 4.66 % | 0.1 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Primary School Enrollment | 96.8 % gross | 67.0 |
Education Expenditure | 12.3 % of govt | 61.3 |
Overweight Adults | 55.4 % adults | 56.0 |
Uprooted People | 5.20 0-10 | 52.0 |
Net Migration | -3119 persons | 52.0 |
GDP Growth | 4.13 % annual | 46.9 |
Aging Population | 17.7 % population | 46.4 |
School Gender Parity | 0.99 ratio | 43.2 |
Life Expectancy | 74.4 years | 38.1 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 17.5 % | 36.2 |
Sanitation Access | 74.4 % population | 27.8 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 81.3 ratio F/M | 22.9 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 16.0 % | 21.1 |
Development and Deprivation | 1.50 0-10 | 15.0 |
Labor Participation | 79.6 % (15+) | 14.5 |
Unemployment Rate | 3.46 % | 9.6 |
Fertility Rate | 1.22 births per woman | 8.9 |
Safe Drinking Water | 93.1 % population | 7.4 |
Aid Dependency | 0.70 0-10 | 7.0 |
Food Security | 0.70 0-10 | 7.0 |
Internet Users | 94.3 % population | 6.3 |
ESG Performance Score | 4.75 0-100 | 4.8 |
Health Conditions | 0.40 0-10 | 4.0 |
Children Under 5 | 0.20 0-10 | 2.0 |
Gini Coefficient | 24.4 0-100 | 1.3 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 2.30 per 1,000 | 0.9 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 99.9 % | 0.2 |
Population Density | 45.2 people/km2 | 0.2 |
Recent Shocks | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 10.3 % | 0.0 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | 2.60 % annual | 0.0 |
Hospital Beds | 9.77 per 1,000 | 0.0 |
Undernourishment | 2.50 % population | 0.0 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 3.50 % population | 0.0 |
Patent Applications | 276 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 1519 count | 99.8 |
Voice and Accountability | -1.67 -2.5 to +2.5 | 83.3 |
Regulatory Quality | -1.42 -2.5 to +2.5 | 78.4 |
Rule of Law | -1.25 -2.5 to +2.5 | 75.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 3.00 0-12 | 75.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.99 -2.5 to +2.5 | 69.8 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.59 % of GDP | 69.2 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.60 0-10 | 66.0 |
Political Stability | -0.73 -2.5 to +2.5 | 64.6 |
Control of Corruption | -0.67 -2.5 to +2.5 | 63.3 |
Women in Parliament | 33.6 % seats | 47.2 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 3.00 0-10 | 30.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 1.00 0-10 | 10.0 |
Healthcare Access | 0.70 0-10 | 7.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.14 0-1 | 85.8 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.22 0-1 | 77.6 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.26 0-1 | 73.7 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.27 0-1 | 72.8 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.40 0-1 | 59.8 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.44 0-1 | 55.6 |
Doing Business Score | 0.59 0-1 | 40.6 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.69 0-1 | 31.1 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.70 0-1 | 29.9 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
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Belarus: ask your AI assistant
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Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Belarus?
Belarus: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, rising over five years. Its overall risk score is 41 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Belarus's risk?
Belarus's highest pressures are governance (64, high) and adaptation (54). Its strongest area is social (20).
How might Belarus's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 96% of Belarus's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Belarus warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Belarus is on track to warm by +4.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +20 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Belarus?
The share of Belarus under high water stress is projected to move from 5.5% today to 9.9% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Belarus?
The share of Belarus exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.6% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Belarus's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.