What drives Belgium's risk?

Belgium's highest pressures are climate (50, medium) and governance (47). Its strongest area is social (22).

How might Belgium's climate change by 2080?

Belgium's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Belgium warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Belgium is on track to warm by +3.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +16 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Belgium's coast?

Coastal sea level along Belgium is projected to rise by +0.84 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.63 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Belgium?

The share of Belgium under high water stress is projected to move from 94% today to 96% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Belgium?

The share of Belgium exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.1% today to 0.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Belgium's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Belgium Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Europe
Subregion: Western Europe
Income: High income, OECD
ISO: BEL

Belgium: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Belgium, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 38 / 100

50 Climate Medium
29 Nature -0.9 Low
22 Social Low
47 Governance Medium
41 Adaptation +0.4 Medium

Which hazards threaten Belgium most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

6.2FloodHigh
6.9DRR capacityHigh

Belgium in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Western Europe

#8 of 9 · median 36

Europe

#23 of 43 · median 38

High income: OECD

#21 of 31 · median 37

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Belgium: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Belgium is projected to warm +3.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing +16 mm.

+3.0 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.5 °C → +3.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.6 °C → +2.1 °C

Hottest month +5.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+16 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +12 mm → +16 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +24 mm → +20 mm

Driest month -1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

96%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 96% → 96%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 96% → 94%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 94% today.

0.2%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.2% → 0.2%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.2% → 0.4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.1% today.

Sea level

Belgium: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 2 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.28 m → +0.84 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.26 m → +0.63 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Coastal Protection Needed	100 % coast	2020	100.0	+15.7	+20.8
Energy Imports	89.7 % of energy use	2023	98.0	+4.8	+3.8
Renewable Energy Share	11.7 % of total energy	2021	87.9	+12.5	+10.1
Renewable Electricity Share	23.5 % of total	2021	76.5	+1.4	+16.4
Drought Index (SPEI)	0.63 index	2021	74.6	+28.2	+20.2
Fossil Fuel Consumption	69.3 % of total	2023	68.5	+2.5	+7.9
Flood Risk	6.20 0-10	2026	62.0	+10.0	+3.0
Land Surface Temperature	14.3 deg C change	2021	38.3	-26.4	-0.1
Heating Degree Days	4735 degree days	2020	32.5	+31.1	-4.3
Energy Use Per Capita	3997 kg oil eq per capita	2023	25.2	+8.5	+7.1
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	7.40 metric tons	2020	23.5	+15.8	+8.5
Energy Intensity	3.40 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	18.9	-0.3	+4.4
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.40 kt CO2e per capita	2020	9.2	+2.2	-1.4
PM2.5 Air Pollution	11.2 ug/m3	2020	7.9	-11.3	0.0
Methane Emissions Per Capita	0.69 kt CO2e per capita	2020	5.0	-3.1	-2.1
Coal Electricity Share	2.25 % of total	2023	4.8	-9.8	-4.6
Cooling Degree Days	247 degree days	2020	3.4	-48.4	-0.3
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	0.0
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Dam Capacity	1.00 0-1	2023	99.7	+6.4	+8.2
Urban Concentration	0.98 0-1	2023	98.0	+40.6	+25.8
Disaster Preparedness	0.95 0-1	2023	95.0	+65.0	+62.5
Energy Import Dependency	0.90 0-1	2023	89.7	+64.0	+40.8
Protected Areas	17.8 % of land	2023	82.1	-6.8	0.0
Freshwater Withdrawal	35.2 % of internal resources	2021	76.7	+26.4	+26.4
Projected Warm Period Change	0.77 0-1	2023	76.6	+8.8	+3.1
Forest Area	22.6 % of land	2022	76.1	+9.8	+11.5
Food Production Index	100 index	2022	72.8	+5.7	+0.5
Agricultural Capacity	0.70 0-1	2023	70.3	-21.5	-12.4
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.63 0-1	2023	63.0	+49.5	+52.6
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.55 0-1	2023	55.3	-2.3	-10.6
Age Dependency Ratio	0.55 0-1	2023	54.9	+2.1	+2.8
Agricultural Land	44.6 % of land	2022	53.1	+5.8	+2.1
Natural Capital Dependency	0.52 0-1	2023	52.2	+30.4	+23.7
Projected Hydropower Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.9	+0.2	-1.5
Water Dependency Ratio	0.34 0-1	2023	34.4	+27.5	+19.2
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.33 0-1	2023	33.4	-3.9	-6.2
Population Below 5m	0.33 0-1	2023	33.1	+18.4	+23.5
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.30 0-1	2023	30.1	+22.7	+22.4
Projected Groundwater Change	0.29 0-1	2023	29.2	+3.0	+3.6
Earthquake Risk	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	-6.0	-2.5
Protected Biome Areas	0.27 0-1	2023	26.7	-14.3	+7.2
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.23 0-1	2023	23.1	-39.0	-15.4
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.22 0-1	2023	22.4	-61.8	-37.5
Paved Roads	0.22 0-1	2023	22.0	-33.0	+11.9
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.21 0-1	2023	21.1	-55.2	-25.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.15 0-1	2023	15.1	-24.5	-8.6
Projected Population Change	0.15 0-1	2023	14.8	-7.5	+6.2
Food Import Dependency	0.15 0-1	2023	14.7	-7.0	-2.1
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.08 0-1	2023	8.2	-10.2	-1.4
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.05 0-1	2023	5.2	-34.0	-5.2
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.03 0-1	2023	3.0	-27.3	0.0
Agriculture GDP Share	0.77 % of GDP	2023	2.1	-16.8	-4.1
Rural Population	0.02 0-1	2023	2.0	-40.6	-25.8
Ecological Footprint	0.02 0-1	2023	1.8	-20.8	-2.2
Water Stress	51.9 %	2021	1.3	+1.0	+1.1
Threatened Mammal Species	2.00 count	2018	1.0	-4.2	-1.1
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.00 0-1	2023	0.3	-20.1	-1.8
Tree Cover Loss	9143 hectares	2021	0.3	+0.2	+0.1
Natural Resource Depletion	0.03 % of GNI	2021	0.1	-2.0	-0.2
Tsunami Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-11.0	0.0
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-86.5	-30.8
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	0.0
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.8	0.0
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	0.0
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Forest Depletion	0.01 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Shared Prosperity Growth	1.14 % annual	2022	90.7	+30.9	+33.1
Education Expenditure	11.3 % of govt	2021	74.8	+4.8	-2.0
Uprooted People	7.40 0-10	2026	74.0	+15.0	+4.5
Primary School Enrollment	102 % gross	2022	61.0	-2.6	-2.1
Hospital Beds	5.48 per 1,000	2021	58.7	-25.2	-8.4
Net Migration	41679 persons	2023	56.5	+1.5	+1.3
Aging Population	20.1 % population	2023	53.4	+37.0	0.0
GDP Growth	1.20 % annual	2023	51.5	+2.6	+1.2
Overweight Adults	51.1 % adults	2022	50.6	-5.4	-6.8
Labor Participation	70.6 % (15+)	2023	27.9	-2.2	+9.3
School Gender Parity	1.08 ratio	2020	27.4	-29.5	-32.0
Gender Labor Ratio	84.2 ratio F/M	2023	20.9	-6.1	-0.4
Poverty Rate (National)	12.3 % population	2022	16.6	-15.9	-11.6
Unemployment Rate	5.53 %	2023	15.4	+1.2	+0.3
Income Share Bottom 20%	9.40 %	2022	13.9	-30.5	-22.2
Fertility Rate	1.47 births per woman	2023	13.8	-9.5	+0.5
Communicable Disease Deaths	7.90 %	2019	10.3	-5.8	+4.9
ESG Performance Score	2.49 0-100	2018	8.9	-16.1	-4.3
Gini Coefficient	26.4 0-100	2022	7.5	-23.3	-15.6
Internet Users	94.6 % population	2023	6.1	-14.8	-3.5
Life Expectancy	82.4 years	2023	5.7	-33.8	-9.5
Sanitation Access	94.9 % population	2022	5.2	-34.8	-5.1
Aid Dependency	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-21.0	-2.0
Children Under 5	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-9.0	-1.0
Population Density	383 people/km2	2022	2.0	+1.5	+1.5
Under-5 Mortality Rate	3.60 per 1,000	2023	1.9	-10.3	+0.0
Health Conditions	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-7.0	-1.0
Safe Drinking Water	99.7 % population	2022	0.3	-21.2	-1.7
Development and Deprivation	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	0.0
Food Security	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-18.0	-7.5
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	0.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	0.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	799 count	2021	99.9	-0.1	-0.1
Scientific Articles	17612 count	2022	98.0	-1.9	-1.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	6.90 0-10	2026	69.0	+27.5	+34.0
R&D Expenditure	3.41 % of GDP	2022	43.7	-44.3	-33.4
Political Stability	0.40 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	41.9	-7.9	+3.9
Legal Rights Strength	8.00 0-12	2019	33.3	-16.7	-16.7
Women in Parliament	42.7 % seats	2023	30.3	-27.9	-13.2
Government Effectiveness	1.04 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	29.3	-22.4	0.0
INFORM Governance Index	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	-27.0	-7.5
Regulatory Quality	1.17 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	26.6	-26.1	-4.8
Rule of Law	1.30 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	24.1	-28.9	-4.5
Voice and Accountability	1.33 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	23.5	-25.4	-5.0
Control of Corruption	1.34 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	23.3	-32.3	-11.3
Communication Infrastructure	1.80 0-10	2026	18.0	-2.0	+4.0
Healthcare Access	0.60 0-10	2026	6.0	-31.0	+0.5
Physical Infrastructure	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	-1.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.33 0-1	2023	67.0	-27.7	-7.5
Education (Readiness)	0.50 0-1	2023	49.9	-23.1	-5.0
Doing Business Score	0.50 0-1	2023	49.7	-8.7	+5.5
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.63 0-1	2023	37.3	-14.2	-0.8
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.64 0-1	2023	36.1	-7.0	+3.4
ICT Infrastructure	0.70 0-1	2023	29.9	-17.8	-3.3
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.73 0-1	2023	26.7	-37.6	-13.1
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.74 0-1	2023	26.4	-26.2	-4.7
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.76 0-1	2023	23.7	-28.3	-4.4

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Belgium?
Belgium: low across the board; strong social keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 38 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Belgium's risk?
Belgium's highest pressures are climate (50, medium) and governance (47). Its strongest area is social (22).
How might Belgium's climate change by 2080?
Belgium's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Belgium warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Belgium is on track to warm by +3.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +16 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Belgium's coast?
Coastal sea level along Belgium is projected to rise by +0.84 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.63 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Belgium?
The share of Belgium under high water stress is projected to move from 94% today to 96% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Belgium?
The share of Belgium exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.1% today to 0.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Belgium's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.