Brunei: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 39 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Brunei's risk?

Brunei's highest pressures are governance (55, medium) and climate (49). Its strongest area is nature (23).

How might Brunei's climate change by 2080?

Brunei's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Brunei warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Brunei is on track to warm by +2.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +207 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Brunei's coast?

Coastal sea level along Brunei is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Brunei?

The share of Brunei under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Brunei?

The share of Brunei exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 4.5% today to 9.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Brunei's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Brunei Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Asia
Subregion: South-Eastern Asia
Income: High income, non-OECD
ISO: BRN

Brunei: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Brunei, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 39 / 100

49 Climate Medium
23 Nature +0.1 Low
23 Social Low
55 Governance Medium
46 Adaptation -1.7 Medium

Which hazards threaten Brunei most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

4.8FloodMedium

Brunei in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

South-Eastern Asia

#2 of 11 · median 52

Asia

#9 of 48 · median 47

High income: nonOECD

#14 of 20 · median 36

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Brunei: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Brunei is projected to warm +2.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing +207 mm.

+2.5 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +1.7 °C → +2.5 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.3 °C → +1.7 °C

Hottest month +2.6 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+207 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +104 mm → +207 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +153 mm → +230 mm

Driest month -10 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

9.4%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 9.1% → 9.4%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 8.9% → 4.8%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 4.5% today.

Sea level

Brunei: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 1 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.22 m → +0.76 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.20 m → +0.57 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Renewable Electricity Share	0.02 % of total	2021	100.0	+24.9	+17.0
Renewable Energy Share	0.00 % of total energy	2021	100.0	+24.6	+9.4
Fossil Fuel Consumption	100.0 % of total	2022	100.0	+27.3	+13.2
Coastal Protection Needed	97.3 % coast	2020	96.4	+12.1	+6.1
Drought Index (SPEI)	0.96 index	2021	82.3	+35.9	+45.9
Cooling Degree Days	5674 degree days	2020	77.7	+25.9	+26.7
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	21.4 metric tons	2020	68.3	+60.6	+57.4
Land Surface Temperature	28.4 deg C change	2021	67.2	+2.5	-0.3
Energy Use Per Capita	9537 kg oil eq per capita	2022	57.0	+48.7	+48.1
Energy Imports	-173 % of energy use	2022	55.0	-16.1	-15.7
Flood Risk	4.80 0-10	2026	48.0	-4.0	-17.5
Energy Intensity	6.33 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	29.7	+13.1	+11.3
Methane Emissions Per Capita	3.44 kt CO2e per capita	2020	28.1	+20.0	+21.9
Coal Electricity Share	21.5 % of total	2022	22.4	+5.7	-9.5
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.31 kt CO2e per capita	2020	7.2	+0.2	+1.1
PM2.5 Air Pollution	7.60 ug/m3	2020	3.4	-15.8	-22.8
Heat Index	3.35 index	2020	2.5	+2.5	+0.4
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	-8.7
Heating Degree Days	0.00 degree days	2020	0.0	-1.4	-7.6

		Year		vs world	vs region
Population Below 5m	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+85.3	+82.2
Dam Capacity	0.98 0-1	2023	97.5	+4.2	+3.9
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.97 0-1	2023	96.5	+10.0	+18.7
Disaster Preparedness	0.95 0-1	2023	95.0	+65.0	+70.0
Protected Areas	9.00 % of land	2023	90.9	+2.0	-2.3
Agricultural Capacity	0.88 0-1	2023	88.5	-3.3	0.0
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.88 0-1	2023	88.3	+12.0	+8.1
Urban Concentration	0.78 0-1	2023	77.5	+20.1	+22.1
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.72 0-1	2023	72.4	-11.8	-9.4
Projected Warm Period Change	0.66 0-1	2023	66.1	-1.7	+0.8
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.65 0-1	2023	65.1	+2.9	+4.1
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.63 0-1	2023	63.3	+44.9	+51.2
Food Production Index	119 index	2022	54.7	-12.4	-5.3
Projected Hydropower Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.7	0.0	0.0
Protected Biome Areas	0.43 0-1	2023	43.2	+2.2	-1.7
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.39 0-1	2023	39.4	+2.1	+2.7
Natural Capital Dependency	0.36 0-1	2023	36.2	+14.4	+10.5
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.33 0-1	2023	32.9	-24.7	-22.4
Projected Groundwater Change	0.32 0-1	2023	32.4	+6.2	+3.8
Age Dependency Ratio	0.32 0-1	2023	32.4	-20.4	-13.2
Natural Resource Depletion	16.1 % of GNI	2021	28.1	+26.0	+25.5
Projected Population Change	0.24 0-1	2023	24.2	+1.9	+0.6
Forest Area	72.1 % of land	2022	23.7	-42.6	-61.2
Rural Population	0.22 0-1	2023	22.5	-20.1	-22.1
Tsunami Risk	1.90 0-10	2026	19.0	+8.0	-6.0
Paved Roads	0.18 0-1	2023	17.8	-37.3	-8.9
Threatened Mammal Species	33.0 count	2018	17.3	+12.1	+10.5
Freshwater Withdrawal	1.08 % of internal resources	2021	15.1	-35.2	-60.5
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.13 0-1	2023	13.1	-26.5	-14.5
Food Import Dependency	0.13 0-1	2023	12.6	-9.1	-6.8
Child Malnutrition	0.12 0-1	2023	12.0	-1.8	-5.8
Ecological Footprint	0.09 0-1	2023	9.0	-13.6	-15.9
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.08 0-1	2023	8.3	-5.2	-7.7
Agriculture GDP Share	1.17 % of GDP	2023	3.3	-15.6	-18.8
Agricultural Land	2.54 % of land	2022	1.5	-45.8	-38.8
Earthquake Risk	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-34.0	-66.5
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.01 0-1	2023	0.9	-6.5	-26.7
Forest Depletion	0.05 % of GNI	2021	0.3	+0.2	+0.3
Water Stress	3.47 %	2021	0.1	-0.2	-1.3
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	-7.0
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-30.3	-21.2
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.8	-3.9
Energy Import Dependency	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-25.7	-20.7
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tree Cover Loss	953 hectares	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Overweight Adults	69.6 % adults	2022	73.9	+17.9	+19.2
Hospital Beds	3.87 per 1,000	2021	71.7	-12.2	-13.6
Uprooted People	6.30 0-10	2026	63.0	+4.0	+9.5
Net Migration	0.00 persons	2023	55.0	0.0	+0.1
GDP Growth	1.13 % annual	2023	51.7	+2.8	+3.9
School Gender Parity	1.02 ratio	2020	51.2	-5.6	-5.2
ESG Performance Score	1.99 0-100	2018	45.8	+20.8	+19.4
Primary School Enrollment	93.5 % gross	2023	45.2	+3.2	+4.3
Gender Labor Ratio	73.2 ratio F/M	2023	32.2	+5.2	-7.6
Labor Participation	68.7 % (15+)	2023	30.7	+0.6	-0.5
Life Expectancy	75.3 years	2023	30.1	-9.4	-3.1
Fertility Rate	1.75 births per woman	2023	19.0	-4.3	-4.2
Food Security	1.80 0-10	2026	18.0	0.0	0.0
Unemployment Rate	5.18 %	2023	14.5	+0.3	+2.9
Communicable Disease Deaths	10.3 %	2019	14.2	-1.9	0.0
Aging Population	6.51 % population	2023	14.2	-2.2	+0.4
Development and Deprivation	1.30 0-10	2026	13.0	-17.0	-12.5
Children Under 5	0.80 0-10	2026	8.0	-3.0	-5.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	9.40 per 1,000	2023	7.1	-5.1	-3.4
Health Conditions	0.60 0-10	2026	6.0	-2.0	+2.0
Adult Literacy Rate	97.6 %	2021	3.8	-2.7	-5.6
Internet Users	99.0 % population	2023	1.1	-19.8	-15.3
Population Density	86.4 people/km2	2022	0.5	0.0	-0.1
Aid Dependency	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-25.0	-21.0
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	-3.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	2.00 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	414 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	+0.2
R&D Expenditure	0.28 % of GDP	2018	94.5	+6.8	-0.1
Women in Parliament	11.8 % seats	2023	80.8	+22.6	+11.6
Voice and Accountability	-0.72 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	64.3	+15.4	-1.2
INFORM Governance Index	3.70 0-10	2026	37.0	-19.0	-20.5
Rule of Law	0.89 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	32.3	-20.7	-20.8
Regulatory Quality	0.98 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	30.5	-22.3	-24.1
Control of Corruption	1.28 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	24.4	-31.2	-33.9
Healthcare Access	2.40 0-10	2026	24.0	-13.0	-9.0
Physical Infrastructure	2.40 0-10	2026	24.0	-6.0	-5.5
Political Stability	1.37 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	22.7	-27.1	-32.9
Government Effectiveness	1.40 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	22.0	-29.7	-28.7
Communication Infrastructure	1.30 0-10	2026	13.0	-7.0	-1.5
Legal Rights Strength	12.0 0-12	2019	0.0	-50.0	-50.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.02 0-1	2023	97.9	+3.2	+3.6
Education (Readiness)	0.23 0-1	2023	77.1	+4.0	+4.2
Doing Business Score	0.60 0-1	2023	40.3	-18.1	-10.8
ICT Infrastructure	0.62 0-1	2023	37.8	-9.9	-7.7
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.68 0-1	2023	31.7	-20.3	-20.1
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.70 0-1	2023	30.2	-22.4	-23.3
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.72 0-1	2023	28.1	-36.2	-39.7
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.80 0-1	2023	19.5	-23.6	-28.8

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Brunei?
Brunei: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 39 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Brunei's risk?
Brunei's highest pressures are governance (55, medium) and climate (49). Its strongest area is nature (23).
How might Brunei's climate change by 2080?
Brunei's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Brunei warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Brunei is on track to warm by +2.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +207 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Brunei's coast?
Coastal sea level along Brunei is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Brunei?
The share of Brunei under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Brunei?
The share of Brunei exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 4.5% today to 9.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Brunei's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.