What drives Indonesia's risk?

Indonesia's highest pressures are climate (64, high) and governance (64). Its strongest area is social (29).

How might Indonesia's climate change by 2080?

Indonesia's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Indonesia warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Indonesia is on track to warm by +2.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +116 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Indonesia's coast?

Coastal sea level along Indonesia is projected to rise by +0.78 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Indonesia?

The share of Indonesia under high water stress is projected to move from 8.1% today to 7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Indonesia?

The share of Indonesia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3% today to 6% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Indonesia's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Indonesia Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Asia
Subregion: South-Eastern Asia
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: IDN

Indonesia: mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure, easing recently.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Indonesia, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 54 / 100

64 Climate High
55 Nature -3.2 Medium
29 Social Low
64 Governance High
60 Adaptation -2.3 High

Which hazards threaten Indonesia most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

8.4FloodCritical
1.9DRR capacityVery low

Indonesia in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

South-Eastern Asia

#8 of 11 · median 52

Asia

#37 of 48 · median 47

Lower middle income

#38 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indonesia: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Indonesia is projected to warm +2.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing +116 mm.

+2.6 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +1.8 °C → +2.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.4 °C → +1.8 °C

Hottest month +2.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+116 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +36 mm → +116 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +39 mm → +71 mm

Driest month -10 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 6.8% → 7%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 7.1% → 5.9%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 8.1% today.

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 4.6% → 6%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 3.1% → 4.2%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3% today.

Sea level

Indonesia: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.23 m → +0.78 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.20 m → +0.57 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Drought Index (SPEI)	1.70 index	2021	89.3	+42.9	+52.9
Coastal Protection Needed	89.2 % coast	2020	86.0	+1.7	-4.3
Flood Risk	8.40 0-10	2026	84.0	+32.0	+18.5
Renewable Electricity Share	18.1 % of total	2021	81.9	+6.8	-1.1
Renewable Energy Share	20.2 % of total energy	2021	79.0	+3.6	-11.6
Fossil Fuel Consumption	77.2 % of total	2022	76.2	+3.5	-10.6
Coal Electricity Share	66.0 % of total	2022	68.6	+51.9	+36.7
Cooling Degree Days	4859 degree days	2020	66.5	+14.7	+15.5
Land Surface Temperature	27.6 deg C change	2021	65.6	+0.9	-1.9
Energy Imports	-84.9 % of energy use	2022	62.0	-9.1	-8.7
PM2.5 Air Pollution	17.9 ug/m3	2020	16.2	-3.0	-10.0
Energy Intensity	3.04 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	11.1	-5.5	-7.3
Access to Clean Fuels	89.1 % population	2022	10.9	+0.7	+2.3
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.28 kt CO2e per capita	2020	6.4	-0.6	+0.3
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	2.05 metric tons	2020	6.4	-1.3	-4.5
Energy Use Per Capita	936 kg oil eq per capita	2022	5.2	-3.1	-3.7
Heat Index	2.28 index	2020	1.7	+1.6	-0.4
Heating Degree Days	27.5 degree days	2020	0.2	-1.3	-7.4

		Year		vs world	vs region
Threatened Mammal Species	191 count	2018	100.0	+94.8	+93.2
Dam Capacity	0.98 0-1	2023	97.8	+4.5	+4.2
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.96 0-1	2023	96.3	+9.8	+18.5
Protected Areas	5.30 % of land	2023	94.7	+5.8	+1.5
Tsunami Risk	9.30 0-10	2026	93.0	+82.0	+68.0
Earthquake Risk	8.90 0-10	2026	89.0	+54.0	+21.5
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.85 0-1	2023	84.5	+0.3	+2.7
Agricultural Capacity	0.82 0-1	2023	82.3	-9.5	-6.2
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.77 0-1	2023	77.3	+37.7	+49.6
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.71 0-1	2023	70.7	+50.3	+42.8
Projected Warm Period Change	0.69 0-1	2023	69.4	+1.7	+4.1
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.68 0-1	2023	67.6	+30.3	+30.9
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	66.5	+0.7	+0.7
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.66 0-1	2023	66.4	-9.9	-13.8
Food Production Index	117 index	2022	56.7	-10.4	-3.3
Urban Concentration	0.55 0-1	2023	55.4	-2.0	0.0
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.55 0-1	2023	54.5	+36.1	+42.4
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.54 0-1	2023	53.8	-8.4	-7.2
Freshwater Withdrawal	11.0 % of internal resources	2021	53.5	+3.2	-22.1
Population Below 5m	0.53 0-1	2023	53.3	+38.5	+35.5
Forest Area	48.0 % of land	2022	49.2	-17.1	-35.7
Protected Biome Areas	0.46 0-1	2023	45.9	+4.9	+1.0
Rural Population	0.45 0-1	2023	44.6	+2.0	0.0
Age Dependency Ratio	0.44 0-1	2023	43.7	-9.0	-1.9
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.5	-14.1	-11.8
Paved Roads	0.43 0-1	2023	43.3	-11.8	+16.5
Projected Hydropower Change	0.41 0-1	2023	41.4	-2.3	-2.3
Ecological Footprint	0.36 0-1	2023	36.2	+13.6	+11.3
Agricultural Land	29.8 % of land	2022	34.9	-12.4	-5.4
Agriculture GDP Share	12.5 % of GDP	2023	34.9	+16.0	+12.8
Child Malnutrition	0.35 0-1	2023	34.7	+20.9	+16.9
Projected Groundwater Change	0.31 0-1	2023	30.6	+4.4	+2.0
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.30 0-1	2023	30.3	0.0	+9.1
Projected Population Change	0.22 0-1	2023	22.1	-0.2	-1.5
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.22 0-1	2023	22.0	+8.5	+6.0
Natural Capital Dependency	0.21 0-1	2023	20.8	-1.0	-4.9
Slum Population	0.20 0-1	2023	19.6	+3.1	+0.8
Food Import Dependency	0.18 0-1	2023	18.4	-3.3	-1.1
Tree Cover Loss	841391 hectares	2021	12.9	+12.8	+12.9
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.09 0-1	2023	9.4	+2.0	-18.1
Natural Resource Depletion	3.23 % of GNI	2021	5.6	+3.5	+3.0
Dependency Ratio	0.03 0-1	2023	3.3	-3.5	-0.6
Disaster Preparedness	0.03 0-1	2023	2.5	-27.5	-22.5
Water Stress	29.7 %	2021	0.8	+0.5	-0.6
Electricity Access	0.01 0-1	2023	0.6	+0.6	+0.6
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	-7.0
Energy Import Dependency	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-25.7	-20.7

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	1.36 per 1,000	2021	91.9	+8.0	+6.6
Safe Drinking Water	30.3 % population	2022	74.3	+52.8	+44.1
Education Expenditure	13.9 % of govt	2022	61.6	-3.3	-6.8
Net Migration	-37501 persons	2023	53.8	-1.2	-1.1
Life Expectancy	71.1 years	2023	47.7	+8.3	+14.5
GDP Growth	5.05 % annual	2023	45.5	-3.4	-2.3
Gender Labor Ratio	64.5 ratio F/M	2023	41.2	+14.2	+1.4
Primary School Enrollment	100 % gross	2023	40.1	-1.9	-0.9
Uprooted People	3.90 0-10	2026	39.0	-20.0	-14.5
Development and Deprivation	3.80 0-10	2026	38.0	+8.0	+12.5
ESG Performance Score	2.12 0-100	2018	36.5	+11.5	+10.1
Internet Users	69.2 % population	2023	34.6	+13.7	+18.2
Overweight Adults	38.1 % adults	2022	34.2	-21.8	-20.5
Gini Coefficient	36.1 0-100	2023	33.3	-18.0	+5.4
Recent Shocks	3.20 0-10	2026	32.0	+31.0	+29.0
Labor Participation	69.1 % (15+)	2023	30.2	+0.1	-1.0
Communicable Disease Deaths	18.9 %	2019	27.6	+11.5	+13.4
Income Share Bottom 20%	7.90 %	2023	26.2	-39.4	-7.4
Health Conditions	2.60 0-10	2026	26.0	+18.0	+22.0
Fertility Rate	2.13 births per woman	2023	26.0	+2.7	+2.8
Children Under 5	2.50 0-10	2026	25.0	+14.0	+12.0
School Gender Parity	0.99 ratio	2018	23.6	+1.6	+3.9
Food Security	1.80 0-10	2026	18.0	0.0	0.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	20.6 per 1,000	2023	16.9	+4.7	+6.4
Aging Population	7.05 % population	2023	15.7	-0.7	+1.9
Undernourishment	7.20 % population	2022	9.6	+3.8	+4.0
Unemployment Rate	3.31 %	2023	9.1	-5.1	-2.5
Poverty Rate (National)	9.40 % population	2023	7.1	-18.7	-3.4
Adult Literacy Rate	96.0 %	2020	5.8	-2.9	+1.5
Aid Dependency	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-23.0	-19.0
Population Density	147 people/km2	2022	0.8	+0.3	+0.2
Access to Electricity	99.4 % population	2023	0.6	+0.6	+0.6

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	1397 count	2021	99.9	-0.1	-0.1
Scientific Articles	31947 count	2022	96.4	-3.5	-3.4
R&D Expenditure	0.28 % of GDP	2020	95.8	+9.8	+0.3
Women in Parliament	21.6 % seats	2023	64.8	+6.6	-4.4
Control of Corruption	-0.49 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	59.7	+4.1	+1.4
Political Stability	-0.40 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	58.1	+8.3	+2.5
Healthcare Access	5.70 0-10	2026	57.0	+20.0	+24.0
INFORM Governance Index	5.50 0-10	2026	55.0	-1.0	-2.5
Rule of Law	-0.15 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	53.1	+0.1	0.0
Legal Rights Strength	6.00 0-12	2019	50.0	0.0	0.0
Voice and Accountability	0.14 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	47.2	-1.6	-18.3
Regulatory Quality	0.30 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	44.0	-8.8	-10.6
Physical Infrastructure	4.20 0-10	2026	42.0	+12.0	+12.5
Government Effectiveness	0.58 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	38.4	-13.3	-12.3
Communication Infrastructure	1.90 0-10	2026	19.0	-1.0	+4.5
Disaster Risk Reduction	1.90 0-10	2026	19.0	-22.5	-17.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.02 0-1	2023	97.6	+2.9	+3.3
Education (Readiness)	0.27 0-1	2023	73.0	-0.0	+0.1
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.31 0-1	2023	68.7	+4.4	+0.9
Doing Business Score	0.40 0-1	2023	59.9	+1.5	+8.8
ICT Infrastructure	0.46 0-1	2023	54.4	+6.7	+8.9
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.48 0-1	2023	52.1	+0.1	+0.3
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.50 0-1	2023	50.0	+6.9	+1.7
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.56 0-1	2023	43.6	-9.0	-9.9
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.57 0-1	2023	43.3	-8.2	+0.4

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Indonesia?
Indonesia: mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 54 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Indonesia's risk?
Indonesia's highest pressures are climate (64, high) and governance (64). Its strongest area is social (29).
How might Indonesia's climate change by 2080?
Indonesia's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Indonesia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Indonesia is on track to warm by +2.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +116 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Indonesia's coast?
Coastal sea level along Indonesia is projected to rise by +0.78 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Indonesia?
The share of Indonesia under high water stress is projected to move from 8.1% today to 7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Indonesia?
The share of Indonesia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3% today to 6% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Indonesia's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.