Mexico: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Mexico's risk?

Mexico's highest pressures are adaptation (64, high) and climate (61). Its strongest area is social (34).

How might Mexico's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 16% of Mexico's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 70 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Mexico warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Mexico is on track to warm by +3.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -39 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Mexico's coast?

Coastal sea level along Mexico is projected to rise by +0.94 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.73 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Mexico?

The share of Mexico under high water stress is projected to move from 46% today to 53% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Mexico?

The share of Mexico exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.2% today to 3.5% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Mexico's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Mexico Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Americas
Subregion: Central America
Income: Upper middle income
ISO: MEX

Mexico: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Mexico, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 53 / 100

61 Climate High
47 Nature +0.2 Medium
34 Social Low
61 Governance High
64 Adaptation +0.2 High

Which hazards threaten Mexico most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

7.9FloodHigh
1.9DRR capacityVery low

Mexico in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Central America

#6 of 8 · median 52

Americas

#30 of 35 · median 44

Upper middle income

#50 of 53 · median 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Mexico: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Mexico is projected to warm +3.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing -39 mm.

+3.6 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.5 °C → +3.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.1 °C → +2.5 °C

Hottest month +3.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-39 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: -13 mm → -39 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -7 mm → -15 mm

Driest month -1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

53%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 51% → 53%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 50% → 58%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 46% today.

3.5%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 2.9% → 3.5%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 2.7% → 1.8%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.2% today.

Sea level

Mexico: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 3 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.32 m → +0.94 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.30 m → +0.73 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Fossil Fuel Consumption	88.7 % of total	2023	90.9	+24.9	+15.6
Energy Imports	13.9 % of energy use	2023	89.1	-4.1	+2.6
Renewable Energy Share	13.0 % of total energy	2021	86.5	+11.1	+6.1
Coastal Protection Needed	87.9 % coast	2020	84.3	0.0	+15.0
Flood Risk	7.90 0-10	2026	79.0	+27.0	+37.0
Renewable Electricity Share	21.5 % of total	2021	78.5	+3.4	+10.4
Land Surface Temperature	31.9 deg C change	2021	74.4	+9.7	+9.1
Drought Index (SPEI)	0.46 index	2021	65.0	+18.6	+22.0
Cooling Degree Days	2977 degree days	2020	40.8	-11.0	-25.3
Energy Intensity	3.00 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	15.8	-3.4	+0.2
Access to Clean Fuels	85.7 % population	2022	14.3	+4.1	+8.8
Coal Electricity Share	6.56 % of total	2023	14.1	-0.5	-4.5
PM2.5 Air Pollution	15.0 ug/m3	2020	12.6	-6.6	-6.0
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	3.02 metric tons	2020	9.5	+1.8	+2.6
Energy Use Per Capita	1401 kg oil eq per capita	2023	8.8	-7.9	-0.5
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.34 kt CO2e per capita	2020	8.0	+1.0	+0.8
Heat Index	10.3 index	2020	7.6	+7.5	+7.4
Heating Degree Days	830 degree days	2020	5.7	+4.3	+5.7

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+62.8	+53.2
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.92 0-1	2023	91.9	+5.4	-2.2
Agricultural Capacity	0.92 0-1	2023	91.8	0.0	+0.8
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.82 0-1	2023	82.3	-1.9	0.0
Earthquake Risk	8.20 0-10	2026	82.0	+47.0	+23.0
Protected Areas	19.0 % of land	2023	80.8	-8.1	-9.2
Urban Concentration	0.80 0-1	2023	80.2	+22.8	+13.1
Dam Capacity	0.70 0-1	2023	70.1	-23.2	-16.5
Freshwater Withdrawal	22.0 % of internal resources	2021	69.8	+19.5	+33.2
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Forest Area	33.7 % of land	2022	64.4	-1.9	+11.8
Paved Roads	0.63 0-1	2023	62.7	+7.7	-4.3
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.61 0-1	2023	60.8	+21.2	+11.4
Agricultural Land	49.4 % of land	2022	58.2	+10.9	+23.8
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.58 0-1	2023	57.8	+37.4	+23.4
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.58 0-1	2023	57.6	0.0	+1.7
Food Production Index	117 index	2022	56.8	-10.3	-13.5
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.56 0-1	2023	56.4	-5.8	-5.1
Tsunami Risk	5.50 0-10	2026	55.0	+44.0	+18.0
Projected Warm Period Change	0.53 0-1	2023	53.1	-14.6	+1.1
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.53 0-1	2023	53.0	-23.3	-21.9
Threatened Mammal Species	96.0 count	2018	50.3	+45.1	+45.1
Age Dependency Ratio	0.46 0-1	2023	46.0	-6.8	-0.8
Water Bodies Extent	54.9 % of land	2020	45.1	+23.5	+13.3
Projected Hydropower Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.5	-0.2	+0.3
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.38 0-1	2023	37.9	-1.4	-16.5
Protected Biome Areas	0.36 0-1	2023	35.5	-5.5	-0.3
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.30 0-1	2023	30.3	0.0	0.0
Natural Capital Dependency	0.26 0-1	2023	25.5	+3.7	+5.3
Projected Population Change	0.24 0-1	2023	23.6	+1.3	+3.6
Disaster Preparedness	0.23 0-1	2023	22.5	-7.5	-2.5
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.22 0-1	2023	21.5	+8.0	+3.6
Projected Groundwater Change	0.20 0-1	2023	20.0	-6.2	-1.9
Rural Population	0.20 0-1	2023	19.8	-22.8	-13.1
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.19 0-1	2023	18.8	+11.4	+15.4
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.17 0-1	2023	16.7	-1.7	-17.0
Energy Import Dependency	0.14 0-1	2023	13.9	-11.8	-1.6
Water Dependency Ratio	0.12 0-1	2023	11.5	+4.6	+9.6
Agriculture GDP Share	3.84 % of GDP	2023	10.7	-8.2	-5.8
Food Import Dependency	0.09 0-1	2023	9.4	-12.3	-15.7
Population Below 5m	0.06 0-1	2023	6.3	-8.4	-7.8
Ecological Footprint	0.05 0-1	2023	4.9	-17.7	-17.0
Natural Resource Depletion	2.76 % of GNI	2021	4.8	+2.7	+2.4
Tree Cover Loss	189079 hectares	2021	2.9	+2.8	+2.6
Water Stress	45.0 %	2021	1.2	+0.9	+1.0
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	-0.1
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	-7.9
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.8	-1.5
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	-15.6
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	-0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	1.02 per 1,000	2021	94.7	+10.8	+7.6
Overweight Adults	73.4 % adults	2022	78.6	+22.6	+12.1
Uprooted People	7.40 0-10	2026	74.0	+15.0	+14.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	5.60 %	2022	66.7	+22.3	-2.7
Poverty Rate (National)	36.3 % population	2022	64.2	+31.7	+19.2
Gini Coefficient	43.5 0-100	2022	63.2	+32.5	+5.9
Primary School Enrollment	102 % gross	2022	61.2	-2.4	-1.8
Shared Prosperity Growth	1.95 % annual	2022	61.0	+1.2	-7.0
Safe Drinking Water	43.0 % population	2022	60.7	+39.2	+24.6
Education Expenditure	15.9 % of govt	2021	59.3	-10.7	-3.5
Net Migration	-101044 persons	2023	51.6	-3.4	-3.4
GDP Growth	3.30 % annual	2023	48.2	-0.7	-0.5
Gender Labor Ratio	61.0 ratio F/M	2023	44.8	+17.8	+10.7
Sanitation Access	62.5 % population	2022	38.5	-1.5	-16.0
School Gender Parity	1.05 ratio	2020	37.8	-19.1	-19.5
Development and Deprivation	3.60 0-10	2026	36.0	+6.0	+7.0
Life Expectancy	75.1 years	2023	35.4	-4.1	-0.4
Labor Participation	66.0 % (15+)	2023	34.9	+4.8	+4.7
ESG Performance Score	2.28 0-100	2018	24.5	-0.5	0.0
Fertility Rate	1.91 births per woman	2023	22.0	-1.3	+3.8
Internet Users	81.2 % population	2023	21.1	+0.2	-3.2
Aging Population	7.99 % population	2023	18.4	+2.0	-3.9
Aid Dependency	1.70 0-10	2026	17.0	-8.0	-8.0
Unmet Contraception Need	10.8 %	2018	16.5	-33.0	0.0
Communicable Disease Deaths	9.09 %	2019	12.2	-3.9	-4.3
Children Under 5	1.00 0-10	2026	10.0	-1.0	0.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	12.5 per 1,000	2023	9.8	-2.4	-0.8
Food Security	0.90 0-10	2026	9.0	-9.0	-9.0
Unemployment Rate	2.77 %	2023	7.5	-6.7	-9.5
Adult Literacy Rate	95.0 %	2020	7.2	-1.5	-1.5
Health Conditions	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	-4.0	-4.0
Recent Shocks	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	+3.0	-2.0
Undernourishment	3.10 % population	2022	1.2	-4.6	-3.3
Access to Electricity	99.7 % population	2023	0.3	+0.3	+0.1
Population Density	66.2 people/km2	2022	0.3	-0.2	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	1117 count	2021	99.9	-0.1	-0.1
Scientific Articles	21027 count	2022	97.7	-2.2	-2.3
R&D Expenditure	0.27 % of GDP	2023	85.4	-0.9	0.0
Control of Corruption	-1.02 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	70.4	+14.8	+13.2
Rule of Law	-0.81 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	66.1	+13.1	+9.9
INFORM Governance Index	6.40 0-10	2026	64.0	+8.0	+8.0
Political Stability	-0.63 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	62.6	+12.8	+16.9
Government Effectiveness	-0.20 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	54.0	+2.3	+2.5
Regulatory Quality	-0.17 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	53.4	+0.6	+3.5
Voice and Accountability	-0.12 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	52.3	+3.4	+13.0
Healthcare Access	3.40 0-10	2026	34.0	-3.0	+5.0
Physical Infrastructure	3.00 0-10	2026	30.0	0.0	+1.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	1.90 0-10	2026	19.0	-22.5	-18.0
Women in Parliament	50.0 % seats	2023	18.4	-39.8	-34.5
Communication Infrastructure	1.70 0-10	2026	17.0	-3.0	-3.0
Legal Rights Strength	10.0 0-12	2019	16.7	-33.3	-41.6

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.04 0-1	2023	95.8	+1.1	-2.0
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.19 0-1	2023	81.0	+16.7	+15.2
Education (Readiness)	0.28 0-1	2023	72.2	-0.8	+3.2
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.35 0-1	2023	64.9	+13.0	+9.7
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.37 0-1	2023	63.4	+11.9	-4.9
Doing Business Score	0.40 0-1	2023	59.8	+1.4	-1.6
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.46 0-1	2023	53.9	+10.8	+14.6
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.47 0-1	2023	52.9	+0.3	+3.5
ICT Infrastructure	0.57 0-1	2023	43.0	-4.7	-1.9

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Mexico?
Mexico: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Mexico's risk?
Mexico's highest pressures are adaptation (64, high) and climate (61). Its strongest area is social (34).
How might Mexico's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 16% of Mexico's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 70 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Mexico warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Mexico is on track to warm by +3.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -39 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Mexico's coast?
Coastal sea level along Mexico is projected to rise by +0.94 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.73 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Mexico?
The share of Mexico under high water stress is projected to move from 46% today to 53% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Mexico?
The share of Mexico exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.2% today to 3.5% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Mexico's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.