Criora

Mexico

Region Americas Subregion Central America Income Upper middle income ISO MEX

Mexico sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Mexico, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
53 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    High
    61 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    47 / 100
    ▲ + 0.2 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    32 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    60 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    64 / 100
    ▲ + 0.2 5y
Climate futures

Mexico: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Mexico is projected to warm +3.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing -39 mm.

Temperature

+3.6 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.5 °C → +3.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.1 °C → +2.5 °C

Hottest month +3.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-39 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-13 mm → -39 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-7 mm → -15 mm

Driest month -1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Mexico: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 3 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.32 m → +0.94 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.30 m → +0.73 m

Water stress

53%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
51% → 53%
Current path SSP3-7.0
50% → 58%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 46% today.

River flooding

3.5%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
2.9% → 3.5%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
2.7% → 1.8%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.2% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Mexico.

Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Mexico most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
7.9 / 10
DRR capacity
Very low
1.7 / 10
Peers

Mexico in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Central America
#6 of 8median 52
  1. 1Costa RicaMedium 43
  2. 2BelizeMedium 43
  3. 3PanamaMedium 44
  4. 4El SalvadorMedium 51
  5. 5NicaraguaMedium 53
  6. 6MexicoMedium 53
  7. 7GuatemalaMedium 54
  8. 8HondurasMedium 57
region
Americas
#30 of 35median 44
  1. 26BoliviaMedium 51
  2. 27ColombiaMedium 52
  3. 28PeruMedium 52
  4. 29NicaraguaMedium 53
  5. 30MexicoMedium 53
  6. 31GuatemalaMedium 54
  7. 32EcuadorMedium 55
  8. 33HondurasMedium 57
  9. 34VenezuelaMedium 58
  10. 35HaitiHigh 62
income group
Upper middle income
#48 of 53median 44
  1. 44LibyaMedium 51
  2. 45AngolaMedium 51
  3. 46ColombiaMedium 52
  4. 47PeruMedium 52
  5. 48MexicoMedium 53
  6. 49LebanonMedium 53
  7. 50TurkmenistanMedium 53
  8. 51EcuadorMedium 55
  9. 52IranMedium 56
  10. 53VenezuelaMedium 58

Put two countries head to head

Compare Mexico against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Mexico?
Mexico sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Mexico's risk?
Mexico's highest pressures are adaptation (64, high) and climate (61). Its strongest area is social (32).
How might Mexico's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 16% of Mexico's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 70 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Mexico warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Mexico is on track to warm by +3.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -39 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Mexico's coast?
Coastal sea level along Mexico is projected to rise by +0.94 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.73 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Mexico?
The share of Mexico under high water stress is projected to move from 46% today to 53% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Mexico?
The share of Mexico exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.2% today to 3.5% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Mexico's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.