Criora

Turkmenistan

Region Asia Subregion Central Asia Income Upper middle income ISO TKM

Turkmenistan sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

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Standing risk

How risky is Turkmenistan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
53 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    High
    63 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    34 / 100
    ▲ + 0.0 5y
  3. Social
    Very low
    18 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    76 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    76 / 100
    ▼ -0.1 5y
Climate futures

Turkmenistan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Turkmenistan is projected to warm +4.2 °C, with annual rainfall changing +9 mm.

Temperature

+4.2 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3.2 °C → +4.2 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.5 °C → +3.0 °C

Hottest month +5.0 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+9 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+8 mm → +9 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+4 mm → +5 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

59%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
55% → 59%
Current path SSP3-7.0
40% → 61%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 36% today.

River flooding

0.8%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.8% → 0.8%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1.1% → 1.4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.7% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Turkmenistan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Critical
8.3 / 10
DRR capacity
Medium
5.0 / 10
Peers

Turkmenistan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Central Asia
#5 of 5median 50
  1. 1KazakhstanMedium 45
  2. 2KyrgyzstanMedium 47
  3. 3UzbekistanMedium 50
  4. 4TajikistanMedium 52
  5. 5TurkmenistanMedium 53
region
Asia
#35 of 48median 47
  1. 31TajikistanMedium 52
  2. 32LaosMedium 52
  3. 33LebanonMedium 53
  4. 34NepalMedium 53
  5. 35TurkmenistanMedium 53
  6. 36North KoreaMedium 54
  7. 37IndonesiaMedium 54
  8. 38CambodiaMedium 55
  9. 39PhilippinesMedium 56
  10. 40IranMedium 56
income group
Upper middle income
#50 of 53median 44
  1. 44LibyaMedium 51
  2. 45AngolaMedium 51
  3. 46ColombiaMedium 52
  4. 47PeruMedium 52
  5. 48MexicoMedium 53
  6. 49LebanonMedium 53
  7. 50TurkmenistanMedium 53
  8. 51EcuadorMedium 55
  9. 52IranMedium 56
  10. 53VenezuelaMedium 58

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Turkmenistan?
Turkmenistan sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Turkmenistan's risk?
Turkmenistan's highest pressures are adaptation (76, high) and governance (76). Its strongest area is social (18).
How might Turkmenistan's climate change by 2080?
Turkmenistan's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Turkmenistan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Turkmenistan is on track to warm by +4.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +9 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Turkmenistan?
The share of Turkmenistan under high water stress is projected to move from 36% today to 59% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Turkmenistan?
The share of Turkmenistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.7% today to 0.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Turkmenistan's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.