+4.3 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +3.1 °C → +4.3 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.5 °C → +2.9 °C
Hottest month +5.3 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Kyrgyzstan Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Asia
- Subregion
- Central Asia
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- KGZ
Kyrgyzstan: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Kyrgyzstan, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 47 / 100
5y
- 39 Climate Low
- 35 Nature +0.0 Low
- 32 Social Low
- 68 Governance High
- 61 Adaptation -0.1 High
Which hazards threaten Kyrgyzstan most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 4.8FloodMedium
- 2.7DRR capacityLow
Kyrgyzstan in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
2
Central Asia
#2 of 5 · median 5023
Asia
#23 of 48 · median 472
Low income
#2 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Kyrgyzstan: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Kyrgyzstan is projected to warm +4.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +31 mm.
+31 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +31 mm → +31 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +14 mm → +28 mm
Driest month +1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
51%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 40% → 51%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 51% → 51%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 32% today.
0.7%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0.4% → 0.7%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0.5% → 0.7%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.5% today.
Sea level
Landlocked, not applicable.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Heating Degree Days | 11791 degree days | 81.0 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 72.9 % of total | 71.7 |
Energy Imports | 33.8 % of energy use | 71.5 |
Renewable Energy Share | 27.6 % of total energy | 71.3 |
Flood Risk | 4.80 0-10 | 48.0 |
Land Surface Temperature | 10.6 deg C change | 30.6 |
Energy Intensity | 4.69 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 29.0 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 24.4 ug/m3 | 24.3 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 77.0 % population | 23.0 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -1.68 index | 22.9 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 85.6 % of total | 14.4 |
Coal Electricity Share | 12.9 % of total | 13.5 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.30 kt CO2e per capita | 7.0 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 1.35 metric tons | 4.2 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 645 kg oil eq per capita | 3.5 |
Cooling Degree Days | 103 degree days | 1.4 |
Heat Index | 0.00 index | 0.0 |
Protected Areas | 6.70 % of land | 93.2 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.93 0-1 | 92.7 |
Forest Area | 7.05 % of land | 92.5 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.91 0-1 | 90.8 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.82 0-1 | 82.4 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.79 0-1 | 79.0 |
Earthquake Risk | 7.70 0-10 | 77.0 |
Rural Population | 0.67 0-1 | 67.0 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.67 0-1 | 66.7 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Agricultural Land | 55.3 % of land | 65.2 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.65 0-1 | 64.9 |
Food Production Index | 113 index | 60.8 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 15.8 % of internal resources | 59.9 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.59 0-1 | 59.2 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.57 0-1 | 57.4 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.36 0-1 | 36.1 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.35 0-1 | 35.4 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.34 0-1 | 33.8 |
Urban Concentration | 0.33 0-1 | 33.0 |
Projected Population Change | 0.28 0-1 | 27.6 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 9.49 % of GDP | 26.4 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.26 0-1 | 26.1 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.26 0-1 | 25.9 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.24 0-1 | 23.9 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.20 0-1 | 20.4 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 9.24 % of GNI | 16.1 |
Dam Capacity | 0.14 0-1 | 14.4 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.14 0-1 | 14.0 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.13 0-1 | 13.5 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.12 0-1 | 12.4 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.10 0-1 | 10.0 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.09 0-1 | 9.2 |
Paved Roads | 0.09 0-1 | 9.1 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.08 0-1 | 8.5 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.07 0-1 | 7.4 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.06 0-1 | 6.1 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 5.00 count | 2.6 |
Slum Population | 0.02 0-1 | 2.5 |
Water Stress | 50.0 % | 1.3 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.01 0-1 | 1.1 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Tree Cover Loss | 18.0 hectares | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Hospital Beds | 4.23 per 1,000 | 68.8 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | 2.09 % annual | 59.8 |
Overweight Adults | 58.1 % adults | 59.4 |
Net Migration | 5601 persons | 55.2 |
Aid Dependency | 5.50 0-10 | 55.0 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 19.7 % | 49.2 |
Uprooted People | 4.60 0-10 | 46.0 |
Life Expectancy | 72.2 years | 44.3 |
Primary School Enrollment | 96.2 % gross | 43.2 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 33.3 % population | 42.0 |
School Gender Parity | 1.00 ratio | 41.3 |
GDP Growth | 9.01 % annual | 39.2 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 67.5 ratio F/M | 38.1 |
Fertility Rate | 2.70 births per woman | 36.6 |
Education Expenditure | 21.0 % of govt | 33.5 |
Labor Participation | 69.3 % (15+) | 29.9 |
Development and Deprivation | 2.80 0-10 | 28.0 |
Safe Drinking Water | 76.5 % population | 25.0 |
Food Security | 2.20 0-10 | 22.0 |
Health Conditions | 1.60 0-10 | 16.0 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 10.4 % | 14.3 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 17.0 per 1,000 | 13.8 |
Internet Users | 88.5 % population | 12.9 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.44 0-100 | 12.8 |
Aging Population | 5.43 % population | 11.1 |
Unemployment Rate | 3.99 % | 11.0 |
Children Under 5 | 1.00 0-10 | 10.0 |
Recent Shocks | 0.90 0-10 | 9.0 |
Sanitation Access | 92.6 % population | 7.6 |
Gini Coefficient | 26.4 0-100 | 7.5 |
Undernourishment | 6.10 % population | 7.4 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 10.0 % | 5.6 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 99.6 % | 0.6 |
Population Density | 36.4 people/km2 | 0.2 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Scientific Articles | 237 count | 100.0 |
Patent Applications | 83.0 count | 100.0 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.06 % of GDP | 97.9 |
Control of Corruption | -1.22 -2.5 to +2.5 | 74.4 |
Rule of Law | -1.17 -2.5 to +2.5 | 73.5 |
INFORM Governance Index | 7.20 0-10 | 72.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.89 -2.5 to +2.5 | 67.8 |
Women in Parliament | 20.0 % seats | 67.3 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.72 -2.5 to +2.5 | 64.5 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.62 -2.5 to +2.5 | 62.3 |
Political Stability | -0.48 -2.5 to +2.5 | 59.6 |
Healthcare Access | 4.40 0-10 | 44.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 3.10 0-10 | 31.0 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 2.70 0-10 | 27.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 9.00 0-12 | 25.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 1.40 0-10 | 14.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.06 0-1 | 94.2 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.14 0-1 | 85.6 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.28 0-1 | 72.2 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.34 0-1 | 66.5 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.38 0-1 | 61.7 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.49 0-1 | 51.3 |
Doing Business Score | 0.49 0-1 | 51.1 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.51 0-1 | 49.0 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.57 0-1 | 42.5 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
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Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Kyrgyzstan?
Kyrgyzstan: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 47 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Kyrgyzstan's risk?
Kyrgyzstan's highest pressures are governance (68, high) and adaptation (61). Its strongest area is social (32).
How might Kyrgyzstan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 45% of Kyrgyzstan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 59 to 69 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Kyrgyzstan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Kyrgyzstan is on track to warm by +4.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +31 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.9 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Kyrgyzstan?
The share of Kyrgyzstan under high water stress is projected to move from 32% today to 51% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Kyrgyzstan?
The share of Kyrgyzstan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.5% today to 0.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Kyrgyzstan's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.