+2.2 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +1.5 °C → +2.2 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.2 °C → +1.5 °C
Hottest month +2.3 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Vanuatu Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Oceania
- Subregion
- Melanesia
- Income
- Lower middle income
- ISO
- VUT
Vanuatu: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Vanuatu, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 49 / 100
5y
- 21 Climate Low
- 50 Nature -1.6 Medium
- 41 Social Medium
- 70 Governance High
- 63 Adaptation -1.1 High
Which hazards threaten Vanuatu most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 0.0FloodVery low
- 6.9DRR capacityHigh
Vanuatu in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
3
Melanesia
#3 of 4 · median 4813
Oceania
#13 of 14 · median 4327
Lower middle income
#27 of 53 · median 49Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Vanuatu: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Vanuatu is projected to warm +2.2 °C, with annual rainfall changing -60 mm.
-60 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -91 mm → -60 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- -24 mm → -65 mm
Driest month -28 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
0%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 0%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 0% → 0%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.
0%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 0%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0% → 0%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.
Sea level
Vanuatu: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 2 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.24 m → +0.83 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.21 m → +0.57 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Access to Clean Fuels | 6.40 % population | 93.6 |
Coastal Protection Needed | 94.8 % coast | 93.3 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 25.2 % of total | 74.8 |
Renewable Energy Share | 25.0 % of total energy | 74.5 |
Cooling Degree Days | 4482 degree days | 61.3 |
Land Surface Temperature | 24.5 deg C change | 59.1 |
Energy Intensity | 5.04 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 31.7 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 14.1 ug/m3 | 11.5 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.29 kt CO2e per capita | 6.7 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.41 metric tons | 1.2 |
Flood Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Heating Degree Days | 0.00 degree days | 0.0 |
Heat Index | 0.00 index | 0.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Protected Areas | 0.10 % of land | 99.9 |
Agricultural Capacity | 1.00 0-1 | 99.5 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.95 0-1 | 95.2 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.91 0-1 | 90.9 |
Food Production Index | 83.0 index | 88.8 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.81 0-1 | 81.4 |
Rural Population | 0.80 0-1 | 79.8 |
Paved Roads | 0.77 0-1 | 76.6 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.71 0-1 | 71.1 |
Tsunami Risk | 7.00 0-10 | 70.0 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.70 0-1 | 69.8 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.67 0-1 | 67.5 |
Earthquake Risk | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Forest Area | 36.3 % of land | 61.6 |
Population Below 5m | 0.61 0-1 | 61.1 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 24.9 % of GDP | 57.8 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.57 0-1 | 57.3 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.57 0-1 | 56.8 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.50 0-1 | 49.9 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.46 0-1 | 46.1 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.46 0-1 | 45.9 |
Projected Population Change | 0.41 0-1 | 41.5 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.40 0-1 | 40.0 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.40 0-1 | 39.5 |
Electricity Access | 0.39 0-1 | 38.8 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.33 0-1 | 32.5 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.26 0-1 | 26.1 |
Urban Concentration | 0.20 0-1 | 20.2 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.19 0-1 | 19.4 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.18 0-1 | 18.3 |
Agricultural Land | 15.3 % of land | 17.7 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.09 0-1 | 9.1 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 8.00 count | 4.2 |
Forest Depletion | 0.52 % of GNI | 3.0 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 0.52 % of GNI | 0.9 |
Tree Cover Loss | 58.0 hectares | 0.0 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Recent Shocks | 10.0 0-10 | 100.0 |
Aid Dependency | 8.10 0-10 | 81.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 6.80 0-10 | 68.0 |
Internet Users | 45.7 % population | 61.1 |
GDP Growth | -0.96 % annual | 55.0 |
Net Migration | 0.00 persons | 55.0 |
Fertility Rate | 3.60 births per woman | 53.1 |
Overweight Adults | 51.3 % adults | 50.9 |
School Gender Parity | 1.03 ratio | 48.6 |
Life Expectancy | 71.5 years | 46.7 |
Labor Participation | 60.5 % (15+) | 43.4 |
Access to Electricity | 61.6 % population | 40.6 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 7.60 % | 35.7 |
Primary School Enrollment | 107 % gross | 35.3 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.19 0-100 | 31.0 |
Gini Coefficient | 32.3 0-100 | 30.0 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 15.9 % population | 24.6 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 16.9 % | 24.4 |
Children Under 5 | 2.00 0-10 | 20.0 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 85.1 ratio F/M | 20.0 |
Education Expenditure | 20.9 % of govt | 19.3 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 89.1 % | 17.3 |
Unemployment Rate | 5.08 % | 14.2 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 16.8 per 1,000 | 13.6 |
Health Conditions | 1.30 0-10 | 13.0 |
Undernourishment | 7.90 % population | 11.1 |
Food Security | 1.00 0-10 | 10.0 |
Aging Population | 4.22 % population | 7.6 |
Population Density | 25.7 people/km2 | 0.1 |
Uprooted People | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Scientific Articles | 14.7 count | 100.0 |
Women in Parliament | 1.92 % seats | 96.9 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 6.90 0-10 | 69.0 |
Healthcare Access | 6.50 0-10 | 65.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.57 -2.5 to +2.5 | 61.4 |
Physical Infrastructure | 5.90 0-10 | 59.0 |
INFORM Governance Index | 5.80 0-10 | 58.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.12 -2.5 to +2.5 | 52.4 |
Control of Corruption | -0.01 -2.5 to +2.5 | 50.3 |
Rule of Law | 0.14 -2.5 to +2.5 | 47.2 |
Communication Infrastructure | 4.30 0-10 | 43.0 |
Voice and Accountability | 0.63 -2.5 to +2.5 | 37.5 |
Political Stability | 0.93 -2.5 to +2.5 | 31.4 |
Legal Rights Strength | 11.0 0-12 | 8.3 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.03 0-1 | 97.2 |
Doing Business Score | 0.37 0-1 | 62.8 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.38 0-1 | 62.1 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.42 0-1 | 57.8 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.48 0-1 | 51.9 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.54 0-1 | 46.3 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.73 0-1 | 27.0 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Vanuatu →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Vanuatu.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Vanuatu?
Vanuatu: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 49 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Vanuatu's risk?
Vanuatu's highest pressures are governance (70, high) and adaptation (63). Its strongest area is climate (21).
How might Vanuatu's climate change by 2080?
Vanuatu's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Vanuatu warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Vanuatu is on track to warm by +2.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -60 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Vanuatu's coast?
Coastal sea level along Vanuatu is projected to rise by +0.83 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Vanuatu?
The share of Vanuatu under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Vanuatu?
The share of Vanuatu exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Vanuatu's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.