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Papua New Guinea

Region Oceania Subregion Melanesia Income Lower middle income ISO PNG

Papua New Guinea sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

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Standing risk

How risky is Papua New Guinea, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
58 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    42 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    50 / 100
    ▲ + 0.7 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    50 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    77 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    71 / 100
    ▼ -1.1 5y
Climate futures

Papua New Guinea: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Papua New Guinea is projected to warm +2.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +124 mm.

Temperature

+2.4 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+1.6 °C → +2.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.3 °C → +1.6 °C

Hottest month +2.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+124 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+71 mm → +124 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+54 mm → +109 mm

Driest month -8 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Papua New Guinea: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.20 m → +0.73 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.17 m → +0.51 m

Water stress

0%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0
0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

River flooding

6.8%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
4.6% → 6.8%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
3.5% → 4.8%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.1% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Papua New Guinea most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Medium
4.6 / 10
DRR capacity
Low
3.8 / 10
Peers

Papua New Guinea in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Melanesia
#4 of 4median 48
  1. 1FijiMedium 40
  2. 2Solomon Is.Medium 48
  3. 3VanuatuMedium 48
  4. 4Papua New GuineaMedium 58
region
Oceania
#14 of 14median 44
  1. 5SamoaMedium 42
  2. 6NauruMedium 42
  3. 7TuvaluMedium 43
  4. 8TongaMedium 46
  5. 9KiribatiMedium 46
  6. 10Marshall Is.Medium 47
  7. 11MicronesiaMedium 47
  8. 12Solomon Is.Medium 48
  9. 13VanuatuMedium 48
  10. 14Papua New GuineaMedium 58
income group
Lower middle income
#47 of 53median 49
  1. 43PhilippinesMedium 56
  2. 44CongoMedium 56
  3. 45HondurasMedium 57
  4. 46IndiaMedium 57
  5. 47Papua New GuineaMedium 58
  6. 48IraqMedium 59
  7. 49NigeriaHigh 60
  8. 50SudanHigh 64
  9. 51PakistanHigh 64
  10. 52SyriaHigh 65

Put two countries head to head

Compare Papua New Guinea against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Papua New Guinea?
Papua New Guinea sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 58 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Papua New Guinea's risk?
Papua New Guinea's highest pressures are governance (77, high) and adaptation (71). Its strongest area is climate (42).
How might Papua New Guinea's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 9% of Papua New Guinea's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Papua New Guinea warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Papua New Guinea is on track to warm by +2.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +124 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Papua New Guinea's coast?
Coastal sea level along Papua New Guinea is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.51 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Papua New Guinea?
The share of Papua New Guinea under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Papua New Guinea?
The share of Papua New Guinea exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.1% today to 6.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Papua New Guinea's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.