What drives Papua New Guinea's risk?

Papua New Guinea's highest pressures are governance (76, high) and adaptation (71). Its strongest area is climate (42).

How might Papua New Guinea's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 9% of Papua New Guinea's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Papua New Guinea warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Papua New Guinea is on track to warm by +2.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +124 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Papua New Guinea's coast?

Coastal sea level along Papua New Guinea is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.51 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Papua New Guinea?

The share of Papua New Guinea under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Papua New Guinea?

The share of Papua New Guinea exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.1% today to 6.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Papua New Guinea's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Papua New Guinea Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Oceania
Subregion: Melanesia
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: PNG

Papua New Guinea: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Papua New Guinea, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 58 / 100

42 Climate Medium
50 Nature +0.7 Medium
51 Social Medium
76 Governance High
71 Adaptation -1.1 High

Which hazards threaten Papua New Guinea most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

4.6FloodMedium
3.8DRR capacityLow

Papua New Guinea in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Melanesia

#4 of 4 · median 48

Oceania

#14 of 14 · median 43

Lower middle income

#47 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Papua New Guinea: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Papua New Guinea is projected to warm +2.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +124 mm.

+2.4 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +1.6 °C → +2.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.3 °C → +1.6 °C

Hottest month +2.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+124 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +71 mm → +124 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +54 mm → +109 mm

Driest month -8 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

6.8%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 4.6% → 6.8%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 3.5% → 4.8%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.1% today.

Sea level

Papua New Guinea: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.20 m → +0.73 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.17 m → +0.51 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Access to Clean Fuels	10.0 % population	2022	90.0	+79.8	+37.9
Coastal Protection Needed	89.1 % coast	2020	85.9	+1.6	-8.4
Land Surface Temperature	26.6 deg C change	2021	63.5	-1.2	+0.6
Renewable Electricity Share	40.0 % of total	2021	60.0	-15.1	-23.9
Cooling Degree Days	3786 degree days	2020	51.8	0.0	-19.0
Flood Risk	4.60 0-10	2026	46.0	-6.0	+46.0
Renewable Energy Share	54.6 % of total energy	2022	43.2	-25.2	-38.0
Energy Intensity	6.47 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	42.9	+23.7	+9.3
PM2.5 Air Pollution	17.3 ug/m3	2020	15.5	-3.7	+7.1
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.17 kt CO2e per capita	2020	4.1	-2.9	-0.4
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.56 metric tons	2020	1.7	-6.0	-1.6
Heating Degree Days	113 degree days	2020	0.8	-0.6	+0.8
Heat Index	0.90 index	2020	0.7	+0.6	+0.7
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Dam Capacity	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+6.7	+3.7
Dependency Ratio	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+93.2	+10.5
Ecological Footprint	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+77.4	+48.0
Protected Areas	0.70 % of land	2023	99.3	+10.4	-0.4
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.98 0-1	2023	98.4	+14.2	+13.3
Paved Roads	0.97 0-1	2023	96.8	+41.8	+20.2
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.95 0-1	2023	95.1	+8.6	+4.6
Agricultural Capacity	0.93 0-1	2023	93.1	+1.3	0.0
Rural Population	0.93 0-1	2023	93.0	+50.4	+48.0
Earthquake Risk	9.20 0-10	2026	92.0	+57.0	+76.5
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.81 0-1	2023	80.7	+43.5	-6.8
Electricity Access	0.80 0-1	2023	80.3	+80.3	+80.3
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.78 0-1	2023	77.8	+12.0	+12.0
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.75 0-1	2023	74.9	-1.4	-10.7
Food Production Index	101 index	2022	72.3	+5.2	-0.1
Tsunami Risk	7.10 0-10	2026	71.0	+60.0	+11.5
Protected Biome Areas	0.70 0-1	2023	69.9	+28.9	+25.3
Projected Warm Period Change	0.69 0-1	2023	68.6	+0.8	-0.4
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.67 0-1	2023	66.7	+4.6	+5.2
Child Malnutrition	0.58 0-1	2023	58.3	+44.5	+44.6
Age Dependency Ratio	0.57 0-1	2023	56.8	+4.0	-4.6
Agriculture GDP Share	17.0 % of GDP	2023	47.2	+28.3	+7.3
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.46 0-1	2023	45.9	-11.7	-2.3
Population Below 5m	0.46 0-1	2023	45.7	+31.0	-54.3
Projected Population Change	0.39 0-1	2023	39.3	+17.0	+19.1
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.37 0-1	2023	37.2	+18.9	+7.5
Natural Resource Depletion	20.6 % of GNI	2021	35.9	+33.8	+35.3
Projected Groundwater Change	0.31 0-1	2023	30.6	+4.4	+3.6
Food Import Dependency	0.30 0-1	2023	30.3	+8.6	-5.4
Disaster Preparedness	0.23 0-1	2023	22.5	-7.5	-17.5
Threatened Mammal Species	41.0 count	2018	21.5	+16.3	+19.1
Forest Area	79.0 % of land	2022	16.4	-49.9	-36.1
Forest Depletion	2.04 % of GNI	2021	11.6	+11.5	+11.2
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.09 0-1	2023	9.1	-21.2	0.0
Natural Capital Dependency	0.09 0-1	2023	8.5	-13.3	-4.9
Urban Concentration	0.07 0-1	2023	7.0	-50.4	-48.0
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.07 0-1	2023	6.5	-7.0	-81.3
Agricultural Land	3.10 % of land	2022	3.2	-44.1	-18.7
Tree Cover Loss	76613 hectares	2021	1.2	+1.1	+1.2
Freshwater Withdrawal	0.05 % of internal resources	2021	1.2	-49.1	-15.4
Water Stress	0.13 %	2021	0.0	-0.3	-0.1
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-7.5	-1.1
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	0.17 per 1,000	2019	100.0	+19.1	+9.3
Education Expenditure	3.86 % of govt	2021	100.0	+30.0	+32.8
Internet Users	24.1 % population	2023	85.4	+64.5	+46.8
Access to Electricity	20.5 % population	2023	84.0	+84.0	+84.0
Development and Deprivation	8.00 0-10	2026	80.0	+50.0	+38.5
Food Security	7.90 0-10	2026	79.0	+61.0	+69.0
Unmet Contraception Need	25.9 %	2018	71.8	+22.3	0.0
ESG Performance Score	1.75 0-100	2018	63.6	+38.6	+40.0
Life Expectancy	66.1 years	2023	63.4	+23.9	+6.8
Health Conditions	6.10 0-10	2026	61.0	+53.0	+21.0
Uprooted People	5.90 0-10	2026	59.0	0.0	+59.0
Labor Participation	52.7 % (15+)	2023	55.3	+25.2	+11.8
Net Migration	-787 persons	2023	55.0	0.0	0.0
Undernourishment	27.7 % population	2022	51.6	+45.8	+43.2
Overweight Adults	51.4 % adults	2022	50.9	-5.1	-25.4
GDP Growth	3.81 % annual	2023	47.4	-1.5	-2.4
Communicable Disease Deaths	30.3 %	2019	45.3	+29.2	+28.7
School Gender Parity	0.89 ratio	2018	44.8	+22.8	+25.7
Fertility Rate	3.10 births per woman	2023	43.9	+20.6	-0.3
Under-5 Mortality Rate	40.3 per 1,000	2023	34.3	+22.1	+17.7
Primary School Enrollment	110 % gross	2018	32.2	-10.3	-6.9
Children Under 5	3.00 0-10	2026	30.0	+19.0	+14.0
Aid Dependency	1.80 0-10	2026	18.0	-7.0	-42.5
Gender Labor Ratio	95.1 ratio F/M	2023	9.7	-17.3	-9.1
Unemployment Rate	2.66 %	2023	7.2	-7.0	-3.0
Aging Population	3.35 % population	2023	5.1	-11.3	-6.8
Recent Shocks	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	0.0	0.0
Population Density	22.5 people/km2	2022	0.1	-0.4	-0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Scientific Articles	83.3 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
Women in Parliament	2.70 % seats	2023	95.6	+37.4	+10.8
Physical Infrastructure	9.20 0-10	2026	92.0	+62.0	+69.0
Healthcare Access	7.90 0-10	2026	79.0	+42.0	+34.0
INFORM Governance Index	6.90 0-10	2026	69.0	+13.0	+16.5
Government Effectiveness	-0.80 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	66.0	+14.3	+16.0
Control of Corruption	-0.66 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	63.1	+7.5	+24.1
Regulatory Quality	-0.64 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	62.9	+10.1	+8.3
Communication Infrastructure	6.20 0-10	2026	62.0	+42.0	+37.5
Rule of Law	-0.54 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	60.8	+7.8	+23.1
Political Stability	-0.48 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	59.6	+9.8	+31.2
Voice and Accountability	0.01 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	49.9	+1.0	+20.9
Disaster Risk Reduction	3.80 0-10	2026	38.0	-3.5	-6.0
Legal Rights Strength	9.00 0-12	2019	25.0	-25.0	+8.3

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+5.3	+16.5
Education (Readiness)	0.01 0-1	2023	99.0	+26.0	+24.7
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.27 0-1	2023	72.6	+8.3	+27.7
ICT Infrastructure	0.31 0-1	2023	69.1	+21.4	+11.9
Doing Business Score	0.32 0-1	2023	67.5	+9.1	+6.7
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.34 0-1	2023	66.4	+14.9	0.0
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.38 0-1	2023	62.3	+9.7	+8.2
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.40 0-1	2023	59.7	+7.8	+22.7
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.49 0-1	2023	51.2	+8.1	+26.8

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

Score a site in Papua New Guinea →

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Papua New Guinea.

Where exactly?

Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.

orpinpoint it on the map →

Map of Papua New Guinea — Pinpoint on the map Open the map

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Papua New Guinea?
Papua New Guinea: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 58 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Papua New Guinea's risk?
Papua New Guinea's highest pressures are governance (76, high) and adaptation (71). Its strongest area is climate (42).
How might Papua New Guinea's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 9% of Papua New Guinea's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Papua New Guinea warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Papua New Guinea is on track to warm by +2.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +124 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Papua New Guinea's coast?
Coastal sea level along Papua New Guinea is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.51 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Papua New Guinea?
The share of Papua New Guinea under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Papua New Guinea?
The share of Papua New Guinea exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.1% today to 6.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Papua New Guinea's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.