What drives Pakistan's risk?

Pakistan's highest pressures are governance (76, high) and adaptation (70). Its strongest area is social (53).

How might Pakistan's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 7% of Pakistan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 65 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Pakistan warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Pakistan is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +25 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Pakistan's coast?

Coastal sea level along Pakistan is projected to rise by +0.66 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.42 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Pakistan?

The share of Pakistan under high water stress is projected to move from 54% today to 57% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Pakistan?

The share of Pakistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3.9% today to 2.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Pakistan's risk data last updated?

Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Pakistan Climate risk profile and hazard map

Name: Pakistan country risk profile
Creator: Criora
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Region: Asia
Subregion: Southern Asia
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: PAK

Pakistan: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Pakistan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

High 65 / 100

67 Climate High
56 Nature -0.3 Medium
53 Social Medium
76 Governance High
70 Adaptation -0.5 High

Which hazards threaten Pakistan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

9.5FloodCritical
5.2DRR capacityMedium

Pakistan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Southern Asia

#8 of 9 · median 56

Asia

#45 of 48 · median 47

Lower middle income

#51 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Pakistan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Pakistan is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing +25 mm.

+4.0 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.7 °C → +4.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.0 °C → +2.7 °C

Hottest month +3.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+25 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +20 mm → +25 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +17 mm → +23 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

57%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 57% → 57%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 48% → 58%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 54% today.

2.1%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 5.3% → 2.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 2.9% → 3.6%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3.9% today.

Sea level

Pakistan: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 2 of its largest cities.

Karachi, Max depth 2.4 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.19 m → +0.66 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.16 m → +0.42 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Flood Risk	9.50 0-10	2026	95.0	+43.0	+29.5
Land Surface Temperature	32.7 deg C change	2021	76.2	+11.5	+8.7
Energy Imports	39.8 % of energy use	2022	72.0	+0.9	+1.3
Renewable Electricity Share	28.3 % of total	2021	71.7	-3.4	-13.2
Drought Index (SPEI)	0.89 index	2023	69.0	+24.9	+33.9
Cooling Degree Days	4515 degree days	2024	60.2	+6.1	+7.3
Renewable Energy Share	41.6 % of total energy	2021	56.8	-18.6	-33.8
Fossil Fuel Consumption	0.00 % of total	2023	50.0	0.0	0.0
Heat Index	74.0 days	2024	49.0	+44.8	+39.8
PM2.5 Air Pollution	43.0 ug/m3	2020	47.5	+28.3	+21.3
Access to Clean Fuels	54.9 % population	2023	45.1	+36.8	+37.5
Heating Degree Days	2562 degree days	2024	18.7	+5.7	+6.7
Energy Intensity	4.21 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	17.7	+1.1	-0.8
Coastal Protection Needed	22.4 % coast	2024	13.7	-60.0	-59.2
Coal Electricity Share	12.8 % of total	2023	12.9	-1.2	-13.5
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.29 kt CO2e per capita	2020	6.9	-0.1	+0.8
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.78 metric tons	2020	2.4	-5.3	-8.5
Energy Use Per Capita	415 kg oil eq per capita	2023	2.1	-6.5	-6.9

		Year		vs world	vs region
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+92.5	+72.5
Dam Capacity	0.97 0-1	2023	97.1	+3.8	+3.5
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.95 0-1	2023	95.2	+11.0	+13.4
Forest Area	4.67 % of land	2023	95.1	+28.8	+10.1
Freshwater Withdrawal	326 % of internal resources	2022	94.7	+44.4	+19.8
Earthquake Risk	9.20 0-10	2026	92.0	+57.0	+24.5
Agricultural Capacity	0.90 0-1	2023	90.1	-1.7	+1.6
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.86 0-1	2023	86.5	0.0	+8.7
Protected Areas	15.3 % of land	2024	84.6	-3.7	-7.7
Water Dependency Ratio	0.78 0-1	2023	77.7	+70.8	+70.7
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.75 0-1	2023	74.9	+9.1	+9.1
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.74 0-1	2023	73.8	+36.5	+37.1
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.72 0-1	2023	71.8	+9.6	+10.8
Age Dependency Ratio	0.67 0-1	2023	67.1	+14.3	+21.5
Rural Population	0.67 0-1	2023	66.8	+24.2	+22.2
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.67 0-1	2023	66.7	+36.4	+45.5
Protected Biome Areas	0.65 0-1	2023	65.3	+24.3	+20.4
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.63 0-1	2023	62.7	-13.6	-17.5
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.62 0-1	2023	62.4	+4.8	+7.1
Tsunami Risk	6.10 0-10	2026	61.0	+50.0	+36.0
Slum Population	0.56 0-1	2023	56.5	+40.0	+37.7
Agriculture GDP Share	23.7 % of GDP	2024	56.3	+40.5	+39.1
Projected Warm Period Change	0.56 0-1	2023	55.6	-12.1	-9.7
Agricultural Land	46.7 % of land	2023	53.8	+9.5	+20.5
Food Production Index	122 index	2022	51.7	-15.4	-8.3
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.50 0-1	2023	50.1	+29.7	+22.2
Ecological Footprint	0.49 0-1	2023	49.1	+26.5	+24.2
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.9	+4.3	+16.3
Dependency Ratio	0.44 0-1	2023	43.5	+36.7	+39.6
Projected Hydropower Change	0.40 0-1	2023	39.9	-3.8	-3.8
Energy Import Dependency	0.40 0-1	2023	39.8	+14.1	+19.1
Projected Population Change	0.37 0-1	2023	36.7	+14.4	+13.1
Urban Concentration	0.33 0-1	2023	33.2	-24.2	-22.2
Child Malnutrition	0.29 0-1	2023	29.3	+15.5	+11.5
Projected Groundwater Change	0.28 0-1	2023	28.2	+2.0	-0.4
Paved Roads	0.28 0-1	2023	27.6	-27.4	+0.9
Food Import Dependency	0.25 0-1	2023	25.2	+3.5	+5.8
Natural Capital Dependency	0.20 0-1	2023	20.3	-1.5	-5.4
Disaster Preparedness	0.20 0-1	2023	20.0	-10.0	-5.0
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.12 0-1	2023	12.4	-1.1	-3.6
Threatened Mammal Species	24.0 count	2022	11.3	+6.1	+5.2
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.10 0-1	2023	10.4	-8.0	-1.7
Electricity Access	0.04 0-1	2023	4.4	+4.4	+4.4
Water Stress	110 %	2022	2.9	+2.6	+1.6
Population Below 5m	0.03 0-1	2023	2.7	-12.1	-15.1
Natural Resource Depletion	1.07 % of GNI	2021	1.9	-0.2	-0.7
Forest Depletion	0.13 % of GNI	2021	0.7	+0.6	+0.7
Tree Cover Loss	115 hectares	2024	0.0	-0.1	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	0.63 per 1,000	2020	96.2	+17.0	+14.5
Primary School Enrollment	83.7 % gross	2024	80.4	+16.1	+15.2
Development and Deprivation	7.90 0-10	2026	79.0	+49.0	+53.5
Uprooted People	7.90 0-10	2026	79.0	+20.0	+25.5
Gender Labor Ratio	30.0 ratio F/M	2024	76.4	+51.0	+36.3
Adult Literacy Rate	58.9 %	2021	65.3	+47.9	+53.3
School Gender Parity	0.88 ratio	2019	63.5	+30.5	+29.5
Education Expenditure	9.76 % of govt	2023	61.0	+13.9	+13.0
Life Expectancy	67.8 years	2024	58.7	+19.0	+21.8
Safe Drinking Water	45.0 % population	2024	58.7	+33.5	+30.8
Overweight Adults	54.8 % adults	2022	55.3	-0.7	+0.6
Communicable Disease Deaths	37.3 %	2021	54.4	+17.8	+19.2
GDP Growth	-0.04 % annual	2023	53.5	+4.6	+5.7
Fertility Rate	3.55 births per woman	2024	53.0	+30.0	+30.0
Labor Participation	54.7 % (15+)	2024	52.5	+23.6	+20.6
Under-5 Mortality Rate	56.0 per 1,000	2024	47.9	+36.0	+37.3
Children Under 5	4.70 0-10	2026	47.0	+36.0	+34.0
Internet Users	57.3 % population	2024	46.8	+27.3	+32.9
Food Security	4.30 0-10	2026	43.0	+25.0	+25.0
Unmet Contraception Need	17.3 %	2018	40.3	-9.2	+6.7
Shared Prosperity Growth	1.25 % annual	2018	39.7	0.0	+38.8
ESG Performance Score	3.12 0-100	2020	37.6	+21.1	+32.3
Poverty Rate (National)	21.9 % population	2018	36.7	+0.2	+13.1
Aid Dependency	3.50 0-10	2026	35.0	+10.0	+14.0
Recent Shocks	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	+28.0	+26.0
Undernourishment	16.5 % population	2023	27.1	+21.9	+22.1
Gini Coefficient	33.5 0-100	2024	22.6	-24.4	-1.5
Income Share Bottom 20%	8.20 %	2024	21.9	-39.0	-4.7
Health Conditions	1.70 0-10	2026	17.0	+9.0	+13.0
Unemployment Rate	5.49 %	2024	15.5	+1.4	+4.4
Aging Population	4.28 % population	2024	7.6	-9.3	-6.4
Access to Electricity	95.6 % population	2023	4.7	+4.7	+4.7
Population Density	321 people/km2	2023	1.7	+1.2	+1.0
Net Migration	-1401173 persons	2024	0.0	-52.1	-52.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	426 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	22643 count	2022	97.5	-2.4	-2.3
R&D Expenditure	0.16 % of GDP	2023	97.5	+10.3	+1.4
Political Stability	-1.93 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	88.7	+38.9	+33.1
Legal Rights Strength	2.00 0-12	2019	83.3	+33.3	+33.3
Women in Parliament	17.0 % seats	2024	73.3	+14.2	+4.5
Control of Corruption	-1.00 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	70.0	+14.4	+11.7
Voice and Accountability	-0.96 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	69.2	+20.4	+3.7
INFORM Governance Index	6.80 0-10	2026	68.0	+12.0	+10.5
Regulatory Quality	-0.90 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	68.0	+15.3	+13.4
Rule of Law	-0.86 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	67.2	+14.3	+14.1
Government Effectiveness	-0.58 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	61.6	+9.9	+10.9
Healthcare Access	5.20 0-10	2026	52.0	+15.0	+19.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	5.20 0-10	2026	52.0	+10.5	+16.0
Communication Infrastructure	4.60 0-10	2026	46.0	+26.0	+31.5
Physical Infrastructure	4.60 0-10	2026	46.0	+16.0	+16.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.01 0-1	2023	99.2	+4.5	+4.9
Education (Readiness)	0.07 0-1	2023	93.4	+20.4	+20.5
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.20 0-1	2023	80.5	+16.2	+12.7
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.24 0-1	2023	76.3	+33.2	+28.0
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.33 0-1	2023	67.4	+14.8	+13.9
ICT Infrastructure	0.33 0-1	2023	66.6	+18.9	+21.1
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.34 0-1	2023	66.0	+14.0	+14.2
Doing Business Score	0.34 0-1	2023	65.8	+7.4	+14.7
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.72 0-1	2023	28.4	-23.1	-14.5

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Pakistan: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Pakistan?
Pakistan: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure. Its overall risk score is 65 out of 100 (high), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Pakistan's risk?
Pakistan's highest pressures are governance (76, high) and adaptation (70). Its strongest area is social (53).
How might Pakistan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 7% of Pakistan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 65 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Pakistan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Pakistan is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +25 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Pakistan's coast?
Coastal sea level along Pakistan is projected to rise by +0.66 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.42 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Pakistan?
The share of Pakistan under high water stress is projected to move from 54% today to 57% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Pakistan?
The share of Pakistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3.9% today to 2.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Pakistan's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.