Criora

Pakistan

Region Asia Subregion Southern Asia Income Lower middle income ISO PAK

Pakistan carries high governance pressure, led by flood exposure and hazard and exposure.

Live events

In real time

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Standing risk

How risky is Pakistan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
High
64 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    High
    67 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    57 / 100
    ▼ -0.3 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    50 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    75 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    70 / 100
    ▼ -0.5 5y
Climate futures

Pakistan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Pakistan is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing +25 mm.

Temperature

+4.0 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.7 °C → +4.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.0 °C → +2.7 °C

Hottest month +3.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+25 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+20 mm → +25 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+17 mm → +23 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Pakistan: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 2 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.19 m → +0.66 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.16 m → +0.42 m

Water stress

57%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
57% → 57%
Current path SSP3-7.0
48% → 58%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 54% today.

River flooding

2.1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
5.3% → 2.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
2.9% → 3.6%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3.9% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Pakistan.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Pakistan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Critical
9.5 / 10
DRR capacity
Medium
5.0 / 10
Peers

Pakistan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Southern Asia
#8 of 9median 56
  1. 1MaldivesMedium 41
  2. 2BhutanMedium 41
  3. 3Sri LankaMedium 46
  4. 4NepalMedium 53
  5. 5IranMedium 56
  6. 6IndiaMedium 57
  7. 7BangladeshHigh 64
  8. 8PakistanHigh 64
  9. 9AfghanistanHigh 64
region
Asia
#45 of 48median 47
  1. 39PhilippinesMedium 56
  2. 40IranMedium 56
  3. 41IndiaMedium 57
  4. 42IraqMedium 59
  5. 43MyanmarHigh 63
  6. 44BangladeshHigh 64
  7. 45PakistanHigh 64
  8. 46AfghanistanHigh 64
  9. 47SyriaHigh 65
  10. 48YemenHigh 66
income group
Lower middle income
#51 of 53median 49
  1. 44CongoMedium 56
  2. 45HondurasMedium 57
  3. 46IndiaMedium 57
  4. 47Papua New GuineaMedium 58
  5. 48IraqMedium 59
  6. 49NigeriaHigh 60
  7. 50SudanHigh 64
  8. 51PakistanHigh 64
  9. 52SyriaHigh 65
  10. 53YemenHigh 66

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Pakistan?
Pakistan carries high governance pressure, led by flood exposure and hazard and exposure. Its overall risk score is 64 out of 100 (high), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Pakistan's risk?
Pakistan's highest pressures are governance (75, high) and adaptation (70). Its strongest area is social (50).
How might Pakistan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 7% of Pakistan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 65 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Pakistan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Pakistan is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +25 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Pakistan's coast?
Coastal sea level along Pakistan is projected to rise by +0.66 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.42 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Pakistan?
The share of Pakistan under high water stress is projected to move from 54% today to 57% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Pakistan?
The share of Pakistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3.9% today to 2.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Pakistan's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.