+4.5 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +3.2 °C → +4.5 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.6 °C → +3.0 °C
Hottest month +5.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Syria Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Asia
- Subregion
- Western Asia
- Income
- Lower middle income
- ISO
- SYR
Syria: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Syria, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
High 65 / 100
5y
- 51 Climate Medium
- 49 Nature +1.1 Medium
- 60 Social Medium
- 85 Governance Critical
- 78 Adaptation +0.5 High
Which hazards threaten Syria most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 6.3FloodHigh
Syria in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
17
Western Asia
#17 of 18 · median 4345
Asia
#45 of 48 · median 4751
Lower middle income
#51 of 53 · median 49Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Syria: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Syria is projected to warm +4.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing -11 mm.
-11 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -7 mm → -11 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- -6 mm → -9 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
69%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 52% → 69%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 52% → 69%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 48% today.
0.4%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0.4% → 0.4%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0.2% → 0.2%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1% today.
Sea level
Syria: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 1 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.24 m → +0.74 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.21 m → +0.52 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 99.5 % of total | 99.5 |
Renewable Energy Share | 1.10 % of total energy | 98.9 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 3.91 % of total | 96.1 |
Land Surface Temperature | 35.7 deg C change | 82.2 |
Energy Imports | 61.3 % of energy use | 73.7 |
Flood Risk | 6.30 0-10 | 63.0 |
Cooling Degree Days | 3292 degree days | 45.1 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 24.7 ug/m3 | 24.7 |
Heating Degree Days | 2109 degree days | 14.5 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 90.5 % population | 9.5 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 1.20 metric tons | 3.7 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.16 kt CO2e per capita | 3.6 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 455 kg oil eq per capita | 2.3 |
Heat Index | 2.90 index | 2.1 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 43.1 % of GDP | 100.0 |
Protected Areas | 0.70 % of land | 99.3 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.97 0-1 | 97.0 |
Forest Area | 2.82 % of land | 97.0 |
Agricultural Land | 80.2 % of land | 94.8 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 196 % of internal resources | 93.0 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.92 0-1 | 91.8 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.79 0-1 | 78.5 |
Dam Capacity | 0.78 0-1 | 77.9 |
Food Production Index | 97.0 index | 75.7 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.72 0-1 | 72.4 |
Earthquake Risk | 7.20 0-10 | 72.0 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.72 0-1 | 71.8 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.68 0-1 | 68.2 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.67 0-1 | 67.4 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.65 0-1 | 65.1 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.61 0-1 | 61.3 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.58 0-1 | 58.1 |
Urban Concentration | 0.54 0-1 | 54.1 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.51 0-1 | 51.4 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.48 0-1 | 47.5 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.47 0-1 | 47.2 |
Rural Population | 0.46 0-1 | 45.9 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.45 0-1 | 44.5 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.42 0-1 | 41.6 |
Paved Roads | 0.35 0-1 | 35.4 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.33 0-1 | 33.2 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.33 0-1 | 33.1 |
Projected Population Change | 0.32 0-1 | 31.7 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.25 0-1 | 24.9 |
Tsunami Risk | 2.30 0-10 | 23.0 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.22 0-1 | 21.8 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.21 0-1 | 21.2 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.13 0-1 | 13.3 |
Electricity Access | 0.12 0-1 | 11.7 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.09 0-1 | 9.2 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 14.0 count | 7.3 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 1.40 % of GNI | 5.1 |
Water Stress | 124 % | 3.2 |
Population Below 5m | 0.02 0-1 | 2.4 |
Forest Depletion | 0.03 % of GNI | 0.2 |
Tree Cover Loss | 2856 hectares | 0.0 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Recent Shocks | 10.0 0-10 | 100.0 |
Uprooted People | 10.0 0-10 | 100.0 |
Hospital Beds | 1.43 per 1,000 | 91.4 |
Food Security | 8.80 0-10 | 88.0 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 21.3 ratio F/M | 85.6 |
Net Migration | 757309 persons | 80.8 |
Overweight Adults | 71.1 % adults | 75.8 |
Labor Participation | 39.9 % (15+) | 75.0 |
Internet Users | 34.7 % population | 69.4 |
Development and Deprivation | 6.70 0-10 | 67.0 |
Undernourishment | 34.0 % population | 64.5 |
Aid Dependency | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Primary School Enrollment | 79.6 % gross | 55.7 |
GDP Growth | -1.21 % annual | 55.4 |
Life Expectancy | 72.1 years | 44.7 |
Unemployment Rate | 13.2 % | 37.4 |
Fertility Rate | 2.71 births per woman | 36.8 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 20.6 per 1,000 | 16.9 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 9.20 % | 16.7 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 10.7 % | 14.7 |
Children Under 5 | 1.40 0-10 | 14.0 |
Access to Electricity | 88.4 % population | 12.3 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 94.0 % | 9.5 |
Aging Population | 4.69 % population | 9.0 |
Gini Coefficient | 26.6 0-100 | 8.1 |
Health Conditions | 0.50 0-10 | 5.0 |
Population Density | 121 people/km2 | 0.6 |
Political Stability | -2.75 -2.5 to +2.5 | 100.0 |
Patent Applications | 102 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 584 count | 99.9 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.07 % of GDP | 99.4 |
Legal Rights Strength | 1.00 0-12 | 91.7 |
Rule of Law | -2.04 -2.5 to +2.5 | 90.7 |
Voice and Accountability | -1.85 -2.5 to +2.5 | 87.1 |
Regulatory Quality | -1.81 -2.5 to +2.5 | 86.2 |
INFORM Governance Index | 8.60 0-10 | 86.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -1.79 -2.5 to +2.5 | 85.8 |
Control of Corruption | -1.75 -2.5 to +2.5 | 85.0 |
Women in Parliament | 10.8 % seats | 82.4 |
Healthcare Access | 5.10 0-10 | 51.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 3.80 0-10 | 38.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 2.70 0-10 | 27.0 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.02 0-1 | 97.7 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.02 0-1 | 97.7 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.10 0-1 | 90.3 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.11 0-1 | 89.1 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.15 0-1 | 85.4 |
Doing Business Score | 0.26 0-1 | 73.8 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.28 0-1 | 72.1 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.39 0-1 | 61.1 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.57 0-1 | 42.5 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Syria →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Syria.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Syria?
Syria: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure. Its overall risk score is 65 out of 100 (high), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Syria's risk?
Syria's highest pressures are governance (85, critical) and adaptation (78). Its strongest area is nature (49).
How might Syria's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 9% of Syria's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 67 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Syria warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Syria is on track to warm by +4.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -11 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Syria's coast?
Coastal sea level along Syria is projected to rise by +0.74 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.52 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Syria?
The share of Syria under high water stress is projected to move from 48% today to 69% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Syria?
The share of Syria exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1% today to 0.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Syria's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.