+4.0 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.7 °C → +4.0 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.1 °C → +2.7 °C
Hottest month +4.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Mali Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Western Africa
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- MLI
Mali: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Mali, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
High 61 / 100
5y
- 60 Climate High
- 31 Nature -2.2 Low
- 60 Social High
- 79 Governance High
- 72 Adaptation +2.2 High
Which hazards threaten Mali most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 7.9FloodHigh
Mali in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
14
Western Africa
#14 of 16 · median 5446
Africa
#46 of 54 · median 5327
Low income
#27 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Mali: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Mali is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing +37 mm.
+37 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +30 mm → +37 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +23 mm → +28 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
15%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 14% → 15%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 16% → 16%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 8.8% today.
1.9%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 1.7% → 1.9%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 1.6% → 1.4%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.2% today.
Sea level
Landlocked, not applicable.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Cooling Degree Days | 7254 degree days | 99.3 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 1.20 % population | 98.8 |
Land Surface Temperature | 39.6 deg C change | 90.2 |
Flood Risk | 7.90 0-10 | 79.0 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 56.8 ug/m3 | 64.7 |
Energy Intensity | 6.26 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 41.2 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 62.3 % of total | 37.7 |
Heat Index | 40.9 index | 30.1 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -1.37 index | 28.9 |
Renewable Energy Share | 71.1 % of total energy | 25.7 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.69 kt CO2e per capita | 16.2 |
Heating Degree Days | 66.5 degree days | 0.5 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.19 metric tons | 0.5 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Agricultural Capacity | 1.00 0-1 | 99.9 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.98 0-1 | 98.5 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.93 0-1 | 93.4 |
Protected Areas | 7.50 % of land | 92.4 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 32.5 % of GDP | 90.4 |
Forest Area | 10.9 % of land | 88.5 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.86 0-1 | 86.4 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.85 0-1 | 85.0 |
Dam Capacity | 0.85 0-1 | 84.9 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.79 0-1 | 78.7 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.77 0-1 | 76.9 |
Paved Roads | 0.76 0-1 | 76.0 |
Projected Population Change | 0.66 0-1 | 66.1 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.63 0-1 | 63.4 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.62 0-1 | 62.3 |
Rural Population | 0.58 0-1 | 58.0 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.57 0-1 | 57.2 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.55 0-1 | 55.3 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 8.64 % of internal resources | 50.0 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.50 0-1 | 50.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.46 0-1 | 46.0 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.44 0-1 | 43.8 |
Slum Population | 0.42 0-1 | 42.3 |
Urban Concentration | 0.42 0-1 | 42.0 |
Agricultural Land | 35.5 % of land | 41.6 |
Food Production Index | 136 index | 39.0 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.35 0-1 | 35.1 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.34 0-1 | 33.6 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.33 0-1 | 33.3 |
Water Bodies Extent | 70.0 % of land | 30.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.29 0-1 | 28.7 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 15.5 % of GNI | 27.0 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.22 0-1 | 21.7 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.18 0-1 | 17.7 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.16 0-1 | 16.2 |
Forest Depletion | 2.34 % of GNI | 13.4 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.07 0-1 | 7.4 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 14.0 count | 7.3 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Water Stress | 8.00 % | 0.2 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Tree Cover Loss | 130 hectares | 0.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | -3.99 % annual | 100.0 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 31.0 % | 100.0 |
Hospital Beds | 0.25 per 1,000 | 99.9 |
School Gender Parity | 0.90 ratio | 96.9 |
Development and Deprivation | 9.60 0-10 | 96.0 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 60.3 % | 92.3 |
Fertility Rate | 5.61 births per woman | 90.4 |
Sanitation Access | 15.9 % population | 86.4 |
Life Expectancy | 60.4 years | 81.3 |
Uprooted People | 8.00 0-10 | 80.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 91.3 per 1,000 | 79.3 |
Internet Users | 35.1 % population | 73.0 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 23.9 % | 64.5 |
ESG Performance Score | 1.75 0-100 | 64.1 |
Primary School Enrollment | 74.4 % gross | 59.7 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 44.6 % population | 58.3 |
Net Migration | -39953 persons | 53.7 |
Access to Electricity | 54.5 % population | 48.1 |
Aid Dependency | 4.80 0-10 | 48.0 |
GDP Growth | 4.72 % annual | 46.0 |
Children Under 5 | 4.50 0-10 | 45.0 |
Health Conditions | 4.00 0-10 | 40.0 |
Gini Coefficient | 35.7 0-100 | 37.4 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 7.60 % | 36.6 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 72.3 ratio F/M | 33.2 |
Overweight Adults | 33.3 % adults | 28.2 |
Food Security | 2.80 0-10 | 28.0 |
Labor Participation | 70.9 % (15+) | 27.4 |
Education Expenditure | 19.1 % of govt | 26.2 |
Undernourishment | 9.60 % population | 14.5 |
Unemployment Rate | 2.96 % | 8.1 |
Recent Shocks | 0.80 0-10 | 8.0 |
Aging Population | 2.41 % population | 2.4 |
Population Density | 18.9 people/km2 | 0.1 |
Political Stability | -2.73 -2.5 to +2.5 | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 118 count | 100.0 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.17 % of GDP | 97.7 |
INFORM Governance Index | 7.50 0-10 | 75.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -1.14 -2.5 to +2.5 | 72.8 |
Voice and Accountability | -1.01 -2.5 to +2.5 | 70.2 |
Rule of Law | -0.98 -2.5 to +2.5 | 69.6 |
Healthcare Access | 6.90 0-10 | 69.0 |
Control of Corruption | -0.86 -2.5 to +2.5 | 67.2 |
Communication Infrastructure | 6.40 0-10 | 64.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.68 -2.5 to +2.5 | 63.6 |
Physical Infrastructure | 5.90 0-10 | 59.0 |
Women in Parliament | 28.6 % seats | 53.4 |
Legal Rights Strength | 6.00 0-12 | 50.0 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.03 0-1 | 97.3 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.10 0-1 | 90.0 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.23 0-1 | 77.3 |
Doing Business Score | 0.26 0-1 | 73.6 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.32 0-1 | 68.3 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.35 0-1 | 64.8 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.37 0-1 | 63.0 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.60 0-1 | 40.3 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Mali →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Mali.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Mali?
Mali: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure. Its overall risk score is 61 out of 100 (high), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Mali's risk?
Mali's highest pressures are governance (79, high) and adaptation (72). Its strongest area is nature (31).
How might Mali's climate change by 2080?
Mali's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 67 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Mali warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Mali is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +37 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Mali?
The share of Mali under high water stress is projected to move from 8.8% today to 15% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Mali?
The share of Mali exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.2% today to 1.9% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Mali's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.