Criora

Mali

Region Africa Subregion Western Africa Income Low income ISO MLI

Mali sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Mali, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
60 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    High
    60 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    31 / 100
    ▼ -2.2 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    57 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    79 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    72 / 100
    ▲ + 2.2 5y
Climate futures

Mali: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Mali is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing +37 mm.

Temperature

+4.0 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.7 °C → +4.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.1 °C → +2.7 °C

Hottest month +4.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+37 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+30 mm → +37 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+23 mm → +28 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

15%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
14% → 15%
Current path SSP3-7.0
16% → 16%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 8.8% today.

River flooding

1.9%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
1.7% → 1.9%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1.6% → 1.4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.2% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Mali most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
7.9 / 10
Peers

Mali in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Western Africa
#14 of 16median 54
  1. 7SenegalMedium 53
  2. 8Burkina FasoMedium 54
  3. 9GambiaMedium 54
  4. 10BeninMedium 54
  5. 11Sierra LeoneMedium 54
  6. 12MauritaniaMedium 57
  7. 13LiberiaMedium 59
  8. 14MaliMedium 60
  9. 15NigeriaHigh 60
  10. 16NigerHigh 61
region
Africa
#46 of 54median 53
  1. 42MauritaniaMedium 57
  2. 43MadagascarMedium 57
  3. 44LiberiaMedium 59
  4. 45MozambiqueMedium 59
  5. 46MaliMedium 60
  6. 47NigeriaHigh 60
  7. 48NigerHigh 61
  8. 49Dem. Rep. CongoHigh 61
  9. 50S. SudanHigh 63
  10. 51SudanHigh 64
income group
Low income
#27 of 37median 55
  1. 23MauritaniaMedium 57
  2. 24MadagascarMedium 57
  3. 25LiberiaMedium 59
  4. 26MozambiqueMedium 59
  5. 27MaliMedium 60
  6. 28NigerHigh 61
  7. 29Dem. Rep. CongoHigh 61
  8. 30HaitiHigh 62
  9. 31S. SudanHigh 63
  10. 32MyanmarHigh 63

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Mali?
Mali sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 60 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Mali's risk?
Mali's highest pressures are governance (79, high) and adaptation (72). Its strongest area is nature (31).
How might Mali's climate change by 2080?
Mali's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 67 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Mali warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Mali is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +37 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Mali?
The share of Mali under high water stress is projected to move from 8.8% today to 15% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Mali?
The share of Mali exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.2% today to 1.9% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Mali's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.