+3.5 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.2 °C → +3.5 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.7 °C → +2.3 °C
Hottest month +3.1 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Gambia Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Western Africa
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- GMB
Gambia: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Gambia, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 54 / 100
5y
- 47 Climate Medium
- 32 Nature -1.7 Low
- 49 Social Medium
- 74 Governance High
- 67 Adaptation -1.9 High
Which hazards threaten Gambia most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 4.6FloodMedium
- 6.9DRR capacityHigh
Gambia in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
8
Western Africa
#8 of 16 · median 5429
Africa
#29 of 54 · median 5312
Low income
#12 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Gambia: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Gambia is projected to warm +3.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing -183 mm.
-183 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -79 mm → -183 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +21 mm → -17 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
0.3%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 0.3%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 0% → 7.2%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.
21%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 18% → 21%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 12% → 13%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 11% today.
Sea level
Gambia: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 3 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.24 m → +0.78 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.22 m → +0.57 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Renewable Electricity Share | 1.60 % of total | 98.4 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 1.70 % population | 98.3 |
Cooling Degree Days | 6627 degree days | 90.7 |
Land Surface Temperature | 34.8 deg C change | 80.4 |
Coastal Protection Needed | 83.0 % coast | 77.9 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 58.4 ug/m3 | 66.6 |
Renewable Energy Share | 47.7 % of total energy | 50.5 |
Flood Risk | 4.60 0-10 | 46.0 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -0.79 index | 40.3 |
Heat Index | 36.0 index | 26.5 |
Energy Intensity | 3.16 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 17.1 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.14 kt CO2e per capita | 3.3 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.24 metric tons | 0.7 |
Heating Degree Days | 0.00 degree days | 0.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Food Production Index | 71.1 index | 100.0 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.98 0-1 | 97.7 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.98 0-1 | 97.7 |
Protected Areas | 2.90 % of land | 97.1 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.95 0-1 | 95.0 |
Paved Roads | 0.81 0-1 | 81.4 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.80 0-1 | 80.0 |
Forest Area | 22.8 % of land | 75.8 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.75 0-1 | 75.3 |
Agricultural Land | 62.6 % of land | 74.0 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.73 0-1 | 73.4 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.73 0-1 | 72.8 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.69 0-1 | 69.2 |
Projected Population Change | 0.66 0-1 | 66.5 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 23.2 % of GDP | 64.6 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.64 0-1 | 64.4 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.63 0-1 | 62.5 |
Urban Concentration | 0.62 0-1 | 61.7 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.58 0-1 | 57.7 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.56 0-1 | 56.5 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.55 0-1 | 54.7 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.53 0-1 | 53.1 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.44 0-1 | 44.2 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.44 0-1 | 43.8 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.41 0-1 | 41.3 |
Slum Population | 0.39 0-1 | 39.2 |
Rural Population | 0.38 0-1 | 38.3 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 3.39 % of internal resources | 34.9 |
Electricity Access | 0.33 0-1 | 33.4 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.33 0-1 | 33.3 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.32 0-1 | 31.9 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.29 0-1 | 28.5 |
Population Below 5m | 0.26 0-1 | 26.0 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.21 0-1 | 21.1 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.21 0-1 | 20.8 |
Forest Depletion | 2.93 % of GNI | 16.7 |
Tsunami Risk | 1.10 0-10 | 11.0 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.11 0-1 | 11.0 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.07 0-1 | 7.1 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 10.0 count | 5.2 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 2.93 % of GNI | 5.1 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.03 0-1 | 2.9 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Water Stress | 2.21 % | 0.1 |
Tree Cover Loss | 19.0 hectares | 0.0 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 53.4 % population | 95.0 |
Hospital Beds | 1.15 per 1,000 | 93.6 |
Development and Deprivation | 8.00 0-10 | 80.0 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 52.2 % | 79.6 |
Sanitation Access | 28.0 % population | 74.0 |
Aid Dependency | 6.70 0-10 | 67.0 |
Life Expectancy | 65.9 years | 64.3 |
Labor Participation | 48.7 % (15+) | 61.5 |
Internet Users | 45.9 % population | 60.9 |
Fertility Rate | 4.01 births per woman | 60.7 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 58.7 % | 56.8 |
Safe Drinking Water | 47.7 % population | 55.7 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 24.2 % | 55.2 |
Net Migration | -3000 persons | 54.9 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | -0.06 % annual | 53.0 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 6.60 % | 51.4 |
Food Security | 5.10 0-10 | 51.0 |
Gini Coefficient | 38.8 0-100 | 50.2 |
GDP Growth | 4.80 % annual | 45.9 |
Primary School Enrollment | 93.7 % gross | 45.0 |
Overweight Adults | 40.9 % adults | 37.8 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 44.1 per 1,000 | 37.7 |
Undernourishment | 20.5 % population | 36.9 |
Access to Electricity | 66.9 % population | 35.0 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.16 0-100 | 33.2 |
Education Expenditure | 17.5 % of govt | 32.4 |
Children Under 5 | 3.00 0-10 | 30.0 |
Uprooted People | 2.90 0-10 | 29.0 |
Health Conditions | 2.40 0-10 | 24.0 |
Unemployment Rate | 6.48 % | 18.2 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 90.6 ratio F/M | 14.3 |
Recent Shocks | 0.70 0-10 | 7.0 |
School Gender Parity | 1.15 ratio | 5.2 |
Aging Population | 2.98 % population | 4.0 |
Population Density | 261 people/km2 | 1.4 |
Scientific Articles | 78.5 count | 100.0 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.07 % of GDP | 98.8 |
Women in Parliament | 8.62 % seats | 85.9 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 6.90 0-10 | 69.0 |
Healthcare Access | 6.70 0-10 | 67.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.64 -2.5 to +2.5 | 62.8 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.59 -2.5 to +2.5 | 61.8 |
Rule of Law | -0.37 -2.5 to +2.5 | 57.5 |
Control of Corruption | -0.28 -2.5 to +2.5 | 55.6 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.04 -2.5 to +2.5 | 50.8 |
Political Stability | -0.01 -2.5 to +2.5 | 50.2 |
Legal Rights Strength | 6.00 0-12 | 50.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 4.80 0-10 | 48.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 4.80 0-10 | 48.0 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.01 0-1 | 98.5 |
Doing Business Score | 0.30 0-1 | 69.9 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.36 0-1 | 64.2 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.36 0-1 | 64.0 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.38 0-1 | 62.2 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.38 0-1 | 62.2 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.44 0-1 | 56.5 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.57 0-1 | 43.2 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Gambia →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Gambia.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Gambia?
Gambia: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 54 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Gambia's risk?
Gambia's highest pressures are governance (74, high) and adaptation (67). Its strongest area is nature (32).
How might Gambia's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 21% of Gambia's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 68 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Gambia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Gambia is on track to warm by +3.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -183 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.3 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Gambia's coast?
Coastal sea level along Gambia is projected to rise by +0.78 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Gambia?
The share of Gambia under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Gambia?
The share of Gambia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 11% today to 21% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Gambia's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.