Criora

Gambia

Region Africa Subregion Western Africa Income Low income ISO GMB

Gambia sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Gambia, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
54 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    47 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    32 / 100
    ▼ -1.7 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    48 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    74 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    67 / 100
    ▼ -1.9 5y
Climate futures

Gambia: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Gambia is projected to warm +3.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing -183 mm.

Temperature

+3.5 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.2 °C → +3.5 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.7 °C → +2.3 °C

Hottest month +3.1 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-183 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-79 mm → -183 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+21 mm → -17 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Gambia: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 3 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.24 m → +0.78 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.22 m → +0.57 m

Water stress

0.3%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 0.3%
Current path SSP3-7.0
0% → 7.2%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

River flooding

21%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
18% → 21%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
12% → 13%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 11% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Gambia.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Gambia most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Medium
4.6 / 10
DRR capacity
High
6.9 / 10
Peers

Gambia in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Western Africa
#9 of 16median 54
  1. 5GuineaMedium 53
  2. 6Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  3. 7SenegalMedium 53
  4. 8Burkina FasoMedium 54
  5. 9GambiaMedium 54
  6. 10BeninMedium 54
  7. 11Sierra LeoneMedium 54
  8. 12MauritaniaMedium 57
  9. 13LiberiaMedium 59
  10. 14MaliMedium 60
region
Africa
#30 of 54median 53
  1. 26Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  2. 27SenegalMedium 53
  3. 28KenyaMedium 53
  4. 29Burkina FasoMedium 54
  5. 30GambiaMedium 54
  6. 31ZambiaMedium 54
  7. 32EritreaMedium 54
  8. 33BeninMedium 54
  9. 34MalawiMedium 54
  10. 35Sierra LeoneMedium 54
income group
Low income
#14 of 37median 55
  1. 10KenyaMedium 53
  2. 11NepalMedium 53
  3. 12North KoreaMedium 54
  4. 13Burkina FasoMedium 54
  5. 14GambiaMedium 54
  6. 15EritreaMedium 54
  7. 16BeninMedium 54
  8. 17MalawiMedium 54
  9. 18Sierra LeoneMedium 54
  10. 19BurundiMedium 55

Put two countries head to head

Compare Gambia against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Gambia?
Gambia sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 54 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Gambia's risk?
Gambia's highest pressures are governance (74, high) and adaptation (67). Its strongest area is nature (32).
How might Gambia's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 21% of Gambia's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 68 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Gambia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Gambia is on track to warm by +3.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -183 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.3 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Gambia's coast?
Coastal sea level along Gambia is projected to rise by +0.78 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Gambia?
The share of Gambia under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Gambia?
The share of Gambia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 11% today to 21% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Gambia's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.