Criora

Guinea-Bissau

Region Africa Subregion Western Africa Income Low income ISO GNB

Guinea-Bissau sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Guinea-Bissau, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
53 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    35 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    29 / 100
    ▼ -1.6 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    47 / 100
  4. Governance
    Critical
    82 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    72 / 100
    ▼ -1.8 5y
Climate futures

Guinea-Bissau: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Guinea-Bissau is projected to warm +3.2 °C, with annual rainfall changing -297 mm.

Temperature

+3.2 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+1.9 °C → +3.2 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.6 °C → +2.1 °C

Hottest month +2.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-297 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-65 mm → -297 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+51 mm → +33 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Guinea-Bissau: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 4 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.24 m → +0.78 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.22 m → +0.58 m

Water stress

2.8%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 2.8%
Current path SSP3-7.0
0% → 2.8%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

River flooding

12%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
10% → 12%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
10% → 10%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 7.2% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Guinea-Bissau most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Low
2.8 / 10
Peers

Guinea-Bissau in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Western Africa
#6 of 16median 54
  1. 2GhanaMedium 49
  2. 3TogoMedium 50
  3. 4Côte d'IvoireMedium 53
  4. 5GuineaMedium 53
  5. 6Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  6. 7SenegalMedium 53
  7. 8Burkina FasoMedium 54
  8. 9GambiaMedium 54
  9. 10BeninMedium 54
  10. 11Sierra LeoneMedium 54
region
Africa
#26 of 54median 53
  1. 22DjiboutiMedium 52
  2. 23Côte d'IvoireMedium 53
  3. 24TanzaniaMedium 53
  4. 25GuineaMedium 53
  5. 26Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  6. 27SenegalMedium 53
  7. 28KenyaMedium 53
  8. 29Burkina FasoMedium 54
  9. 30GambiaMedium 54
  10. 31ZambiaMedium 54
income group
Low income
#9 of 37median 55
  1. 5ZimbabweMedium 51
  2. 6TajikistanMedium 52
  3. 7TanzaniaMedium 53
  4. 8GuineaMedium 53
  5. 9Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  6. 10KenyaMedium 53
  7. 11NepalMedium 53
  8. 12North KoreaMedium 54
  9. 13Burkina FasoMedium 54
  10. 14GambiaMedium 54

Put two countries head to head

Compare Guinea-Bissau against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Guinea-Bissau?
Guinea-Bissau sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Guinea-Bissau's risk?
Guinea-Bissau's highest pressures are governance (82, critical) and adaptation (72). Its strongest area is nature (29).
How might Guinea-Bissau's climate change by 2080?
Guinea-Bissau's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Guinea-Bissau warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Guinea-Bissau is on track to warm by +3.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -297 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Guinea-Bissau's coast?
Coastal sea level along Guinea-Bissau is projected to rise by +0.78 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.58 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Guinea-Bissau?
The share of Guinea-Bissau under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 2.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Guinea-Bissau?
The share of Guinea-Bissau exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 7.2% today to 12% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Guinea-Bissau's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.