+3.2 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +1.9 °C → +3.2 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.6 °C → +2.1 °C
Hottest month +2.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Guinea-Bissau Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Western Africa
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- GNB
Guinea-Bissau: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Guinea-Bissau, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 53 / 100
5y
- 35 Climate Low
- 29 Nature -1.6 Low
- 46 Social Medium
- 82 Governance Critical
- 72 Adaptation -1.8 High
Which hazards threaten Guinea-Bissau most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 2.8FloodLow
Guinea-Bissau in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
6
Western Africa
#6 of 16 · median 5425
Africa
#25 of 54 · median 539
Low income
#9 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Guinea-Bissau: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Guinea-Bissau is projected to warm +3.2 °C, with annual rainfall changing -297 mm.
-297 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -65 mm → -297 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +51 mm → +33 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
2.8%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 2.8%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 0% → 2.8%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.
12%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 10% → 12%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 10% → 10%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 7.2% today.
Sea level
Guinea-Bissau: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 4 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.24 m → +0.78 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.22 m → +0.58 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Access to Clean Fuels | 0.90 % population | 99.1 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 7.09 % of total | 92.9 |
Cooling Degree Days | 6588 degree days | 90.2 |
Land Surface Temperature | 30.7 deg C change | 71.9 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 50.2 ug/m3 | 56.5 |
Energy Intensity | 6.95 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 46.6 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -0.92 index | 37.9 |
Flood Risk | 2.80 0-10 | 28.0 |
Heat Index | 23.3 index | 17.1 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.38 kt CO2e per capita | 8.9 |
Renewable Energy Share | 87.4 % of total energy | 8.5 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.16 metric tons | 0.4 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Heating Degree Days | 0.00 degree days | 0.0 |
Dam Capacity | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Ecological Footprint | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.99 0-1 | 99.4 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.97 0-1 | 97.3 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.96 0-1 | 96.4 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 34.0 % of GDP | 94.6 |
Protected Areas | 13.4 % of land | 86.5 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.86 0-1 | 85.5 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.77 0-1 | 77.2 |
Paved Roads | 0.73 0-1 | 72.7 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.70 0-1 | 70.0 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.70 0-1 | 69.7 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.67 0-1 | 66.7 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.67 0-1 | 66.6 |
Slum Population | 0.61 0-1 | 61.4 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.60 0-1 | 60.3 |
Electricity Access | 0.60 0-1 | 60.1 |
Forest Depletion | 10.4 % of GNI | 59.4 |
Rural Population | 0.59 0-1 | 58.8 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.56 0-1 | 55.7 |
Food Production Index | 122 index | 51.9 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.51 0-1 | 50.6 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.49 0-1 | 49.0 |
Projected Population Change | 0.46 0-1 | 45.8 |
Urban Concentration | 0.41 0-1 | 41.2 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.37 0-1 | 37.1 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.37 0-1 | 37.0 |
Agricultural Land | 30.0 % of land | 35.2 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.34 0-1 | 33.9 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.33 0-1 | 33.3 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.33 0-1 | 33.1 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.32 0-1 | 32.2 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.32 0-1 | 31.7 |
Population Below 5m | 0.27 0-1 | 27.4 |
Forest Area | 69.8 % of land | 26.1 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 10.4 % of GNI | 18.2 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 1.09 % of internal resources | 15.7 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.12 0-1 | 12.1 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 14.0 count | 7.3 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.01 0-1 | 0.9 |
Tree Cover Loss | 13685 hectares | 0.2 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Water Stress | 1.50 % | 0.0 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 57.6 % | 88.1 |
Development and Deprivation | 8.70 0-10 | 87.0 |
Sanitation Access | 15.4 % population | 86.9 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | -2.35 % annual | 82.1 |
Safe Drinking Water | 23.9 % population | 81.1 |
Internet Users | 32.5 % population | 75.9 |
Life Expectancy | 64.1 years | 69.8 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 50.5 % population | 66.8 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 53.9 % | 63.4 |
Access to Electricity | 40.5 % population | 62.9 |
Undernourishment | 32.2 % population | 60.9 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 69.3 per 1,000 | 59.9 |
ESG Performance Score | 1.81 0-100 | 59.7 |
Fertility Rate | 3.84 births per woman | 57.6 |
Net Migration | -1400 persons | 55.0 |
Food Security | 4.90 0-10 | 49.0 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 21.1 % | 47.7 |
Children Under 5 | 4.70 0-10 | 47.0 |
GDP Growth | 4.46 % annual | 46.4 |
Aid Dependency | 4.20 0-10 | 42.0 |
Labor Participation | 62.6 % (15+) | 40.2 |
Health Conditions | 3.30 0-10 | 33.0 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 7.90 % | 32.4 |
Gini Coefficient | 33.4 0-100 | 30.0 |
Overweight Adults | 32.1 % adults | 26.7 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 81.3 ratio F/M | 23.9 |
Unemployment Rate | 2.65 % | 7.2 |
Aging Population | 3.14 % population | 4.5 |
Recent Shocks | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Population Density | 74.9 people/km2 | 0.4 |
Uprooted People | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Scientific Articles | 14.8 count | 100.0 |
Women in Parliament | 9.80 % seats | 84.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 8.10 0-10 | 81.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -1.43 -2.5 to +2.5 | 78.7 |
Rule of Law | -1.44 -2.5 to +2.5 | 78.7 |
INFORM Governance Index | 7.80 0-10 | 78.0 |
Healthcare Access | 7.60 0-10 | 76.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -1.25 -2.5 to +2.5 | 75.0 |
Control of Corruption | -1.18 -2.5 to +2.5 | 73.6 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.44 -2.5 to +2.5 | 58.7 |
Political Stability | -0.33 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.6 |
Communication Infrastructure | 5.50 0-10 | 55.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 6.00 0-12 | 50.0 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.01 0-1 | 98.6 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.15 0-1 | 84.6 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.23 0-1 | 77.3 |
Doing Business Score | 0.24 0-1 | 75.8 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.26 0-1 | 74.3 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.34 0-1 | 65.9 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.51 0-1 | 48.6 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.54 0-1 | 45.5 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Guinea-Bissau →But what about your location?
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Where exactly?
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Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Guinea-Bissau?
Guinea-Bissau: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Guinea-Bissau's risk?
Guinea-Bissau's highest pressures are governance (82, critical) and adaptation (72). Its strongest area is nature (29).
How might Guinea-Bissau's climate change by 2080?
Guinea-Bissau's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Guinea-Bissau warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Guinea-Bissau is on track to warm by +3.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -297 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Guinea-Bissau's coast?
Coastal sea level along Guinea-Bissau is projected to rise by +0.78 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.58 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Guinea-Bissau?
The share of Guinea-Bissau under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 2.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Guinea-Bissau?
The share of Guinea-Bissau exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 7.2% today to 12% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Guinea-Bissau's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.