+3.5 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.3 °C → +3.5 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.7 °C → +2.3 °C
Hottest month +3.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Senegal Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Western Africa
- Income
- Lower middle income
- ISO
- SEN
Senegal: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Senegal, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 53 / 100
5y
- 53 Climate Medium
- 36 Nature -0.3 Low
- 44 Social Medium
- 67 Governance High
- 65 Adaptation -0.9 High
Which hazards threaten Senegal most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 6.3FloodHigh
Senegal in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
7
Western Africa
#7 of 16 · median 5427
Africa
#27 of 54 · median 5337
Lower middle income
#37 of 53 · median 49Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Senegal: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Senegal is projected to warm +3.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing -93 mm.
-93 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -36 mm → -93 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +29 mm → +20 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
41%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 31% → 41%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 35% → 47%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 2.5% today.
5.3%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 4.6% → 5.3%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 3.9% → 4%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3.5% today.
Sea level
Senegal: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 4 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.24 m → +0.77 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.22 m → +0.57 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Cooling Degree Days | 7305 degree days | 100.0 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 13.3 % of total | 86.7 |
Land Surface Temperature | 37.4 deg C change | 85.8 |
Energy Imports | 69.4 % of energy use | 74.4 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 63.7 ug/m3 | 73.3 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 32.3 % population | 67.7 |
Renewable Energy Share | 35.4 % of total energy | 63.2 |
Flood Risk | 6.30 0-10 | 63.0 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 63.2 % of total | 61.7 |
Heat Index | 61.5 index | 45.2 |
Energy Intensity | 3.58 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 14.1 |
Coastal Protection Needed | 30.6 % coast | 9.9 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.36 kt CO2e per capita | 8.4 |
Coal Electricity Share | 7.90 % of total | 8.2 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.64 metric tons | 1.9 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 316 kg oil eq per capita | 1.5 |
Heating Degree Days | 0.00 degree days | 0.0 |
Dam Capacity | 1.00 0-1 | 99.6 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.99 0-1 | 99.2 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.98 0-1 | 98.4 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.98 0-1 | 98.2 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.88 0-1 | 88.2 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.87 0-1 | 86.9 |
Protected Areas | 15.5 % of land | 84.5 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.74 0-1 | 74.4 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.71 0-1 | 71.3 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.70 0-1 | 70.2 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.70 0-1 | 69.6 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.69 0-1 | 69.4 |
Paved Roads | 0.65 0-1 | 65.0 |
Projected Population Change | 0.62 0-1 | 61.6 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.60 0-1 | 60.0 |
Agricultural Land | 49.4 % of land | 58.2 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.57 0-1 | 56.7 |
Forest Area | 41.5 % of land | 56.1 |
Water Bodies Extent | 44.4 % of land | 55.6 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 11.9 % of internal resources | 54.7 |
Rural Population | 0.54 0-1 | 54.3 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.49 0-1 | 48.8 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 17.4 % of GDP | 48.4 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.48 0-1 | 48.2 |
Urban Concentration | 0.46 0-1 | 45.7 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.44 0-1 | 44.2 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.44 0-1 | 43.6 |
Population Below 5m | 0.42 0-1 | 42.4 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.42 0-1 | 42.1 |
Tsunami Risk | 3.90 0-10 | 39.0 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.38 0-1 | 38.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.34 0-1 | 34.3 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.34 0-1 | 33.8 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.33 0-1 | 33.3 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.32 0-1 | 32.5 |
Slum Population | 0.32 0-1 | 31.9 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.31 0-1 | 31.4 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.29 0-1 | 29.1 |
Electricity Access | 0.26 0-1 | 26.1 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.25 0-1 | 24.5 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.20 0-1 | 19.8 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.10 0-1 | 10.2 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 19.0 count | 9.9 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 2.29 % of GNI | 4.0 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Water Stress | 16.3 % | 0.4 |
Tree Cover Loss | 177 hectares | 0.0 |
Food Production Index | 177 index | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Hospital Beds | 0.73 per 1,000 | 95.6 |
Sanitation Access | 14.1 % population | 88.3 |
Development and Deprivation | 8.10 0-10 | 81.0 |
Safe Drinking Water | 26.7 % population | 78.1 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | -1.09 % annual | 68.4 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 43.8 % | 66.4 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 57.7 % | 58.2 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 19.1 % | 57.6 |
Fertility Rate | 3.82 births per woman | 57.2 |
Labor Participation | 51.7 % (15+) | 56.9 |
Life Expectancy | 68.7 years | 55.4 |
Net Migration | -9999 persons | 54.7 |
Primary School Enrollment | 82.6 % gross | 53.5 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 58.5 ratio F/M | 47.3 |
GDP Growth | 4.26 % annual | 46.7 |
Internet Users | 60.6 % population | 44.3 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.05 0-100 | 41.2 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 7.30 % | 40.8 |
Aid Dependency | 4.00 0-10 | 40.0 |
Gini Coefficient | 36.2 0-100 | 39.0 |
Uprooted People | 3.80 0-10 | 38.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 38.5 per 1,000 | 32.7 |
Children Under 5 | 3.20 0-10 | 32.0 |
Access to Electricity | 74.2 % population | 27.3 |
Overweight Adults | 30.2 % adults | 24.3 |
Food Security | 1.90 0-10 | 19.0 |
Health Conditions | 1.60 0-10 | 16.0 |
Education Expenditure | 22.5 % of govt | 12.9 |
Unemployment Rate | 2.80 % | 7.6 |
Aging Population | 3.59 % population | 5.8 |
Undernourishment | 4.60 % population | 4.3 |
Recent Shocks | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Population Density | 91.7 people/km2 | 0.5 |
School Gender Parity | 1.18 ratio | 0.0 |
Scientific Articles | 451 count | 99.9 |
Healthcare Access | 6.00 0-10 | 60.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.35 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.9 |
Rule of Law | -0.27 -2.5 to +2.5 | 55.5 |
Political Stability | -0.14 -2.5 to +2.5 | 52.8 |
Physical Infrastructure | 5.20 0-10 | 52.0 |
INFORM Governance Index | 5.00 0-10 | 50.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 6.00 0-12 | 50.0 |
Control of Corruption | 0.06 -2.5 to +2.5 | 48.8 |
Government Effectiveness | 0.07 -2.5 to +2.5 | 48.6 |
Voice and Accountability | 0.13 -2.5 to +2.5 | 47.3 |
Communication Infrastructure | 4.50 0-10 | 45.0 |
Women in Parliament | 46.1 % seats | 24.8 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.10 0-1 | 89.7 |
Doing Business Score | 0.27 0-1 | 73.5 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.42 0-1 | 57.9 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.44 0-1 | 56.4 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.44 0-1 | 56.2 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.45 0-1 | 55.2 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.46 0-1 | 54.5 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.55 0-1 | 45.4 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Senegal →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Senegal.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Senegal?
Senegal: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Senegal's risk?
Senegal's highest pressures are governance (67, high) and adaptation (65). Its strongest area is nature (36).
How might Senegal's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 17% of Senegal's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 68 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Senegal warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Senegal is on track to warm by +3.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -93 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.3 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Senegal's coast?
Coastal sea level along Senegal is projected to rise by +0.77 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Senegal?
The share of Senegal under high water stress is projected to move from 2.5% today to 41% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Senegal?
The share of Senegal exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3.5% today to 5.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Senegal's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.