+3.1 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.0 °C → +3.1 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.7 °C → +2.3 °C
Hottest month +4.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Zambia Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Eastern Africa
- Income
- Lower middle income
- ISO
- ZMB
Zambia: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Zambia, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 54 / 100
5y
- 48 Climate Medium
- 32 Nature -0.9 Low
- 58 Social Medium
- 66 Governance High
- 67 Adaptation -0.8 High
Which hazards threaten Zambia most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 4.8FloodMedium
- 8.2DRR capacityCritical
Zambia in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
9
Eastern Africa
#9 of 18 · median 5431
Africa
#31 of 54 · median 5339
Lower middle income
#39 of 53 · median 49Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Zambia: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Zambia is projected to warm +3.1 °C, with annual rainfall changing +23 mm.
+23 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +10 mm → +23 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- -1 mm → 0 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
8.7%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 9.1% → 8.7%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 8.7% → 19%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 6.1% today.
3%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 2.6% → 3%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 2.7% → 3%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.7% today.
Sea level
Landlocked, not applicable.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Flood Risk | 4.80 0-10 | 48.0 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.94 0-1 | 94.1 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.93 0-1 | 92.5 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.92 0-1 | 92.5 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.82 0-1 | 82.4 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.81 0-1 | 81.0 |
Paved Roads | 0.79 0-1 | 78.6 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.74 0-1 | 73.7 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.70 0-1 | 69.7 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.69 0-1 | 69.3 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.69 0-1 | 69.2 |
Projected Population Change | 0.68 0-1 | 67.7 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.60 0-1 | 60.0 |
Rural Population | 0.58 0-1 | 57.8 |
Electricity Access | 0.49 0-1 | 49.4 |
Slum Population | 0.49 0-1 | 48.7 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.46 0-1 | 45.6 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.44 0-1 | 44.0 |
Urban Concentration | 0.42 0-1 | 42.2 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.38 0-1 | 37.9 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.25 0-1 | 25.3 |
Earthquake Risk | 2.50 0-10 | 25.0 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.23 0-1 | 23.5 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.17 0-1 | 17.4 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.17 0-1 | 17.3 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.16 0-1 | 15.6 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.10 0-1 | 10.3 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.09 0-1 | 9.0 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.02 0-1 | 1.7 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Dam Capacity | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Recent Shocks | 10.0 0-10 | 100.0 |
Food Security | 8.80 0-10 | 88.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 7.70 0-10 | 77.0 |
Health Conditions | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Uprooted People | 5.80 0-10 | 58.0 |
Children Under 5 | 3.20 0-10 | 32.0 |
Aid Dependency | 2.80 0-10 | 28.0 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 8.20 0-10 | 82.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 7.30 0-10 | 73.0 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.10 0-10 | 61.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 5.70 0-10 | 57.0 |
Healthcare Access | 5.40 0-10 | 54.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.00 0-1 | 99.7 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.02 0-1 | 97.7 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.27 0-1 | 73.1 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.32 0-1 | 68.5 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.34 0-1 | 65.6 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.40 0-1 | 59.5 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.41 0-1 | 59.4 |
Doing Business Score | 0.41 0-1 | 58.6 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.60 0-1 | 39.5 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Zambia →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Zambia.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Zambia?
Zambia: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 54 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Zambia's risk?
Zambia's highest pressures are adaptation (67, high) and governance (66). Its strongest area is nature (32).
How might Zambia's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 59% of Zambia's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 75 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Zambia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Zambia is on track to warm by +3.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +23 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.3 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Zambia?
The share of Zambia under high water stress is projected to move from 6.1% today to 8.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Zambia?
The share of Zambia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.7% today to 3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Zambia's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.