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Zambia

Region Africa Subregion Eastern Africa Income Lower middle income ISO ZMB

Zambia sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

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Standing risk

How risky is Zambia, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
54 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    48 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    32 / 100
    ▼ -0.9 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    57 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    65 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    67 / 100
    ▼ -0.8 5y
Climate futures

Zambia: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Zambia is projected to warm +3.1 °C, with annual rainfall changing +23 mm.

Temperature

+3.1 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.0 °C → +3.1 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.7 °C → +2.3 °C

Hottest month +4.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+23 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+10 mm → +23 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-1 mm → 0 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

8.7%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
9.1% → 8.7%
Current path SSP3-7.0
8.7% → 19%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 6.1% today.

River flooding

3%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
2.6% → 3%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
2.7% → 3%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.7% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Zambia most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Medium
4.8 / 10
DRR capacity
High
7.6 / 10
Peers

Zambia in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Eastern Africa
#9 of 18median 54
  1. 5ZimbabweMedium 51
  2. 6DjiboutiMedium 52
  3. 7TanzaniaMedium 53
  4. 8KenyaMedium 53
  5. 9ZambiaMedium 54
  6. 10EritreaMedium 54
  7. 11MalawiMedium 54
  8. 12BurundiMedium 55
  9. 13UgandaMedium 55
  10. 14EthiopiaMedium 56
region
Africa
#31 of 54median 53
  1. 27SenegalMedium 53
  2. 28KenyaMedium 53
  3. 29Burkina FasoMedium 54
  4. 30GambiaMedium 54
  5. 31ZambiaMedium 54
  6. 32EritreaMedium 54
  7. 33BeninMedium 54
  8. 34MalawiMedium 54
  9. 35Sierra LeoneMedium 54
  10. 36BurundiMedium 55
income group
Lower middle income
#38 of 53median 49
  1. 34LaosMedium 52
  2. 35Côte d'IvoireMedium 53
  3. 36NicaraguaMedium 53
  4. 37SenegalMedium 53
  5. 38ZambiaMedium 54
  6. 39IndonesiaMedium 54
  7. 40GuatemalaMedium 54
  8. 41CameroonMedium 55
  9. 42EgyptMedium 55
  10. 43PhilippinesMedium 56

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Zambia?
Zambia sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 54 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Zambia's risk?
Zambia's highest pressures are adaptation (67, high) and governance (65). Its strongest area is nature (32).
How might Zambia's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 59% of Zambia's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 75 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Zambia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Zambia is on track to warm by +3.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +23 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.3 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Zambia?
The share of Zambia under high water stress is projected to move from 6.1% today to 8.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Zambia?
The share of Zambia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.7% today to 3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Zambia's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.