+2.6 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +1.7 °C → +2.6 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.3 °C → +1.8 °C
Hottest month +2.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Kenya Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Eastern Africa
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- KEN
Kenya: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Kenya, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 54 / 100
5y
- 43 Climate Medium
- 39 Nature -0.9 Low
- 53 Social Medium
- 64 Governance High
- 69 Adaptation -1.2 High
Which hazards threaten Kenya most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 5.2FloodMedium
- 2.8DRR capacityLow
Kenya in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
8
Eastern Africa
#8 of 18 · median 5428
Africa
#28 of 54 · median 5311
Low income
#11 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Kenya: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Kenya is projected to warm +2.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing +108 mm.
+108 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +64 mm → +108 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +49 mm → +57 mm
Driest month +1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
12%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 11% → 12%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 9.9% → 16%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.
2.9%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 2.9% → 2.9%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 1.2% → 2.6%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.5% today.
Sea level
Kenya: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 3 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.24 m → +0.79 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.21 m → +0.57 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Drought Index (SPEI) | 1.80 index | 91.3 |
Energy Imports | 22.6 % of energy use | 90.1 |
Land Surface Temperature | 37.6 deg C change | 86.2 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 30.0 % population | 70.0 |
Cooling Degree Days | 4838 degree days | 66.2 |
Coastal Protection Needed | 70.7 % coast | 61.9 |
Flood Risk | 5.20 0-10 | 52.0 |
Renewable Energy Share | 67.7 % of total energy | 29.7 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 24.4 ug/m3 | 24.3 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 78.1 % of total | 21.9 |
Energy Intensity | 4.76 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 20.8 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 19.8 % of total | 11.0 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.40 kt CO2e per capita | 9.4 |
Heat Index | 5.01 index | 3.7 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 544 kg oil eq per capita | 3.4 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.37 metric tons | 1.1 |
Heating Degree Days | 99.0 degree days | 0.7 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.98 0-1 | 97.8 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.97 0-1 | 97.5 |
Paved Roads | 0.94 0-1 | 93.8 |
Forest Area | 6.34 % of land | 93.3 |
Protected Areas | 10.3 % of land | 89.6 |
Dam Capacity | 0.88 0-1 | 88.5 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.86 0-1 | 86.4 |
Rural Population | 0.76 0-1 | 76.0 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.72 0-1 | 72.5 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.69 0-1 | 69.3 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 19.5 % of internal resources | 67.4 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.66 0-1 | 66.3 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.65 0-1 | 64.9 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.63 0-1 | 62.8 |
Food Production Index | 112 index | 61.2 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 21.8 % of GDP | 60.7 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.61 0-1 | 60.7 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.60 0-1 | 60.4 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.60 0-1 | 59.6 |
Agricultural Land | 49.7 % of land | 58.6 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.56 0-1 | 56.5 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.53 0-1 | 53.2 |
Slum Population | 0.51 0-1 | 51.3 |
Projected Population Change | 0.51 0-1 | 50.8 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.50 0-1 | 50.5 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.36 0-1 | 35.6 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.33 0-1 | 32.6 |
Tsunami Risk | 3.20 0-10 | 32.0 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.30 0-1 | 29.6 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.28 0-1 | 28.3 |
Earthquake Risk | 2.80 0-10 | 28.0 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.28 0-1 | 27.9 |
Urban Concentration | 0.24 0-1 | 24.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.24 0-1 | 24.0 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.23 0-1 | 22.6 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.21 0-1 | 21.1 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.19 0-1 | 18.6 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.17 0-1 | 16.7 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 30.0 count | 15.7 |
Water Bodies Extent | 86.5 % of land | 13.5 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.10 0-1 | 10.0 |
Forest Depletion | 1.24 % of GNI | 7.1 |
Population Below 5m | 0.02 0-1 | 2.5 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 1.25 % of GNI | 2.2 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.02 0-1 | 1.9 |
Water Stress | 33.2 % | 0.9 |
Tree Cover Loss | 7564 hectares | 0.1 |
Hospital Beds | 1.33 per 1,000 | 90.9 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | -3.09 % annual | 90.2 |
Food Security | 8.80 0-10 | 88.0 |
Uprooted People | 8.00 0-10 | 80.0 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 48.3 % | 73.5 |
Internet Users | 35.0 % population | 73.1 |
Life Expectancy | 63.6 years | 71.2 |
Sanitation Access | 31.5 % population | 70.4 |
Primary School Enrollment | 78.8 % gross | 69.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 6.60 0-10 | 66.0 |
Undernourishment | 34.5 % population | 65.6 |
Net Migration | -10003 persons | 54.7 |
Education Expenditure | 17.9 % of govt | 54.2 |
ESG Performance Score | 1.90 0-100 | 53.0 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 38.6 % population | 49.6 |
Gini Coefficient | 38.7 0-100 | 47.1 |
Fertility Rate | 3.21 births per woman | 46.0 |
GDP Growth | 5.56 % annual | 44.7 |
Recent Shocks | 4.40 0-10 | 44.0 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 7.20 % | 42.3 |
Aid Dependency | 4.10 0-10 | 41.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 39.9 per 1,000 | 34.0 |
Labor Participation | 67.5 % (15+) | 32.7 |
Health Conditions | 2.90 0-10 | 29.0 |
Overweight Adults | 33.7 % adults | 28.7 |
Children Under 5 | 2.60 0-10 | 26.0 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 13.9 % | 25.7 |
Access to Electricity | 76.2 % population | 25.2 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 82.9 % | 23.5 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 87.2 ratio F/M | 17.9 |
Unemployment Rate | 5.57 % | 15.6 |
Aging Population | 2.91 % population | 3.9 |
Population Density | 95.3 people/km2 | 0.5 |
Patent Applications | 160 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 2007 count | 99.8 |
Physical Infrastructure | 7.50 0-10 | 75.0 |
Political Stability | -0.94 -2.5 to +2.5 | 68.8 |
Control of Corruption | -0.77 -2.5 to +2.5 | 65.4 |
Women in Parliament | 23.3 % seats | 62.0 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.39 -2.5 to +2.5 | 57.8 |
Rule of Law | -0.33 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.5 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.30 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.1 |
Healthcare Access | 5.60 0-10 | 56.0 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.81 % of GDP | 53.2 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.12 -2.5 to +2.5 | 52.5 |
Communication Infrastructure | 4.00 0-10 | 40.0 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 2.80 0-10 | 28.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 11.0 0-12 | 8.3 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.01 0-1 | 98.6 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.06 0-1 | 93.8 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.25 0-1 | 75.2 |
Doing Business Score | 0.34 0-1 | 66.3 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.36 0-1 | 64.4 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.36 0-1 | 64.2 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.41 0-1 | 59.1 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.43 0-1 | 57.3 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.44 0-1 | 55.5 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Kenya →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Kenya.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Kenya?
Kenya: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 54 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Kenya's risk?
Kenya's highest pressures are adaptation (69, high) and governance (64). Its strongest area is nature (39).
How might Kenya's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 14% of Kenya's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 69 to 70 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Kenya warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Kenya is on track to warm by +2.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +108 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Kenya's coast?
Coastal sea level along Kenya is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Kenya?
The share of Kenya under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 12% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Kenya?
The share of Kenya exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.5% today to 2.9% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Kenya's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.