Kenya: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 54 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Kenya's risk?

Kenya's highest pressures are adaptation (69, high) and governance (64). Its strongest area is nature (42).

How might Kenya's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 14% of Kenya's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 69 to 70 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Kenya warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Kenya is on track to warm by +2.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +108 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Kenya's coast?

Coastal sea level along Kenya is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Kenya?

The share of Kenya under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 12% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Kenya?

The share of Kenya exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.5% today to 2.9% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Kenya's risk data last updated?

Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Kenya Climate risk profile and hazard map

Name: Kenya country risk profile
Creator: Criora
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Region: Africa
Subregion: Eastern Africa
Income: Low income
ISO: KEN

Kenya: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Kenya, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 54 / 100

44 Climate Medium
42 Nature -0.9 Medium
52 Social Medium
64 Governance High
69 Adaptation -1.2 High

Which hazards threaten Kenya most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

5.2FloodMedium
2.8DRR capacityLow

Kenya in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Eastern Africa

#8 of 18 · median 54

Africa

#28 of 54 · median 54

Low income

#11 of 37 · median 55

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Kenya: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Kenya is projected to warm +2.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing +108 mm.

+2.6 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +1.7 °C → +2.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.3 °C → +1.8 °C

Hottest month +2.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+108 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +64 mm → +108 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +49 mm → +57 mm

Driest month +1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

12%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 11% → 12%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 9.9% → 16%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

2.9%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 2.9% → 2.9%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 1.2% → 2.6%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.5% today.

Sea level

Kenya: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 3 of its largest cities.

Mombasa, Max depth 2.5 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.24 m → +0.79 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.21 m → +0.57 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Drought Index (SPEI)	1.83 index	2023	88.1	+44.0	+47.5
Land Surface Temperature	37.6 deg C change	2021	86.2	+21.5	+11.4
Coastal Protection Needed	77.5 % coast	2024	75.0	+1.3	-10.6
Cooling Degree Days	5191 degree days	2024	69.3	+15.2	+0.1
Access to Clean Fuels	31.6 % population	2023	68.4	+60.1	-19.0
Energy Imports	22.4 % of energy use	2023	65.6	-1.9	0.0
Flood Risk	5.20 0-10	2026	52.0	0.0	+4.5
Fossil Fuel Consumption	0.00 % of total	2024	50.0	0.0	0.0
Renewable Energy Share	67.7 % of total energy	2021	29.7	-45.7	-0.9
PM2.5 Air Pollution	24.4 ug/m3	2020	24.3	+5.1	-9.9
Renewable Electricity Share	78.1 % of total	2021	21.9	-53.2	-54.1
Energy Intensity	4.76 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	20.8	+4.2	-2.1
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.40 kt CO2e per capita	2020	9.4	+2.4	+3.0
Heat Index	4.56 days	2024	3.0	-1.3	-2.5
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.37 metric tons	2020	1.1	-6.6	0.0
Heating Degree Days	78.1 degree days	2024	0.6	-12.4	-0.2
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0
Energy Use Per Capita	539 kg oil eq per capita	2024	0.0	-13.6	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Vector Disease Change	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+34.2	+27.7
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.98 0-1	2023	97.8	+13.6	+1.6
Agricultural Capacity	0.97 0-1	2023	97.5	+5.7	-0.5
Paved Roads	0.94 0-1	2023	93.8	+38.8	+13.1
Forest Area	6.22 % of land	2023	93.4	+27.1	+15.9
Dam Capacity	0.88 0-1	2023	88.5	-4.8	-6.3
Protected Areas	11.8 % of land	2024	88.1	-0.2	-0.3
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.86 0-1	2023	86.4	-0.1	-6.5
Rural Population	0.76 0-1	2023	76.0	+33.4	+18.2
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.72 0-1	2023	72.5	-3.8	-7.7
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.69 0-1	2023	69.3	+30.0	-10.8
Freshwater Withdrawal	19.5 % of internal resources	2022	67.8	+17.5	+26.0
Projected Warm Period Change	0.66 0-1	2023	66.3	-1.5	-2.8
Age Dependency Ratio	0.65 0-1	2023	64.9	+12.2	-6.4
Water Bodies Extent	37.0 % of land	2023	63.0	+30.8	+39.0
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.63 0-1	2023	62.8	+0.6	-6.4
Food Production Index	112 index	2022	61.2	-5.9	+2.2
Dependency Ratio	0.61 0-1	2023	60.7	+53.9	-5.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.60 0-1	2023	60.4	+20.8	+25.2
Projected Groundwater Change	0.60 0-1	2023	59.6	+33.4	+31.4
Agricultural Land	49.5 % of land	2023	57.1	+12.8	+2.8
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.56 0-1	2023	56.5	-1.1	+2.4
Agriculture GDP Share	22.5 % of GDP	2024	53.3	+37.5	+3.8
Ecological Footprint	0.53 0-1	2023	53.2	+30.6	+2.6
Slum Population	0.51 0-1	2023	51.3	+34.8	+2.6
Projected Population Change	0.51 0-1	2023	50.8	+28.5	+3.3
Protected Biome Areas	0.50 0-1	2023	50.5	+9.5	-14.1
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.36 0-1	2023	36.4	+6.1	+3.1
Projected Hydropower Change	0.36 0-1	2023	35.6	-8.1	-8.1
Water Dependency Ratio	0.33 0-1	2023	32.6	+25.7	+12.8
Tsunami Risk	3.20 0-10	2026	32.0	+21.0	+32.0
Food Import Dependency	0.30 0-1	2023	29.6	+7.9	0.0
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.28 0-1	2023	28.3	-8.9	-1.4
Earthquake Risk	2.80 0-10	2026	28.0	-7.0	+27.0
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.28 0-1	2023	27.9	+9.5	+6.1
Urban Concentration	0.24 0-1	2023	24.0	-33.4	-18.2
Electricity Access	0.24 0-1	2023	24.0	+24.0	-17.2
Energy Import Dependency	0.23 0-1	2023	22.6	-3.1	+9.0
Natural Capital Dependency	0.21 0-1	2023	21.1	-0.7	+1.6
Child Malnutrition	0.19 0-1	2023	18.6	+4.8	-2.5
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.17 0-1	2023	16.7	+9.3	+11.8
Threatened Mammal Species	32.0 count	2022	15.1	+9.9	+6.6
Disaster Preparedness	0.10 0-1	2023	10.0	-20.0	-25.0
Forest Depletion	1.24 % of GNI	2021	7.1	+7.0	-2.1
Population Below 5m	0.02 0-1	2023	2.5	-12.3	-7.8
Natural Resource Depletion	1.25 % of GNI	2021	2.2	+0.1	-5.3
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.02 0-1	2023	1.9	-11.6	-3.3
Water Stress	33.2 %	2022	0.9	+0.6	+0.7
Tree Cover Loss	14102 hectares	2024	0.3	+0.2	+0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	1.33 per 1,000	2019	90.8	+10.4	-3.3
Shared Prosperity Growth	-3.09 % annual	2021	90.2	+40.0	+10.2
Food Security	8.80 0-10	2026	88.0	+70.0	+41.0
Uprooted People	8.00 0-10	2026	80.0	+21.0	+22.0
ESG Performance Score	1.21 0-100	2020	75.9	+59.4	+15.5
Communicable Disease Deaths	50.3 %	2021	74.8	+38.1	-1.1
Life Expectancy	63.8 years	2024	71.1	+31.3	+5.8
Internet Users	35.0 % population	2024	71.1	+51.6	+6.5
Sanitation Access	35.8 % population	2024	69.8	+27.9	-13.3
Undernourishment	36.8 % population	2023	66.3	+61.1	+38.0
Development and Deprivation	6.60 0-10	2026	66.0	+36.0	-11.5
Poverty Rate (National)	39.8 % population	2022	58.8	+31.7	-17.8
Net Migration	-19781 persons	2024	51.4	-0.7	-0.5
Gini Coefficient	38.5 0-100	2022	46.9	+15.1	0.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	7.10 %	2022	45.8	+0.7	-2.8
Fertility Rate	3.17 births per woman	2024	45.8	+22.8	-13.2
GDP Growth	5.56 % annual	2023	44.7	-4.2	-2.1
Primary School Enrollment	98.2 % gross	2023	44.2	+1.4	0.0
Recent Shocks	4.40 0-10	2026	44.0	+43.0	+38.0
Aid Dependency	4.10 0-10	2026	41.0	+16.0	+0.5
Under-5 Mortality Rate	38.8 per 1,000	2024	32.8	+20.9	-8.7
Labor Participation	68.1 % (15+)	2024	32.1	+3.2	-5.9
Health Conditions	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	+21.0	-7.0
Overweight Adults	33.7 % adults	2022	28.7	-27.3	0.0
Children Under 5	2.60 0-10	2026	26.0	+15.0	-10.5
Unmet Contraception Need	13.9 %	2022	25.7	-21.7	-24.3
Access to Electricity	76.2 % population	2023	25.2	+25.2	-19.9
Gender Labor Ratio	87.6 ratio F/M	2024	16.3	-9.1	-3.5
Unemployment Rate	5.49 %	2024	15.5	+1.4	-0.1
Education Expenditure	27.9 % of govt	2024	12.4	-45.6	-40.2
Aging Population	2.97 % population	2024	3.7	-13.3	-0.8
Population Density	95.3 people/km2	2023	0.5	0.0	+0.1

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	160 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	2007 count	2022	99.8	-0.1	-0.2
Physical Infrastructure	7.50 0-10	2026	75.0	+45.0	+8.0
Political Stability	-0.94 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	68.8	+19.0	+8.5
Control of Corruption	-0.77 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	65.4	+9.8	+0.4
Women in Parliament	23.3 % seats	2024	63.5	+4.4	0.0
INFORM Governance Index	6.20 0-10	2026	62.0	+6.0	-4.5
Regulatory Quality	-0.39 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	57.8	+5.0	-7.6
Rule of Law	-0.33 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	56.5	+3.5	-7.7
R&D Expenditure	0.81 % of GDP	2024	56.4	-31.5	-26.4
Government Effectiveness	-0.30 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	56.1	+4.4	-10.4
Healthcare Access	5.60 0-10	2026	56.0	+19.0	-9.0
Voice and Accountability	-0.12 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	52.5	+3.6	-11.4
Communication Infrastructure	4.00 0-10	2026	40.0	+20.0	-10.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	2.80 0-10	2026	28.0	-13.5	-27.0
Legal Rights Strength	11.0 0-12	2019	8.3	-41.7	-41.7

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.01 0-1	2023	98.6	+3.9	-0.9
Education (Readiness)	0.06 0-1	2023	93.8	+20.8	-0.5
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.25 0-1	2023	75.2	+10.9	+2.2
Doing Business Score	0.34 0-1	2023	66.3	+7.9	-3.1
ICT Infrastructure	0.36 0-1	2023	64.4	+16.7	+0.1
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.36 0-1	2023	64.2	+12.7	+7.9
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.41 0-1	2023	59.1	+16.0	+7.3
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.43 0-1	2023	57.3	+4.7	-6.9
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.44 0-1	2023	55.5	+3.5	-7.1

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Kenya: ask your AI assistant

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Kenya: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
Eastern Africa: which countries are most at risk?

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Kenya?
Kenya: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 54 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Kenya's risk?
Kenya's highest pressures are adaptation (69, high) and governance (64). Its strongest area is nature (42).
How might Kenya's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 14% of Kenya's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 69 to 70 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Kenya warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Kenya is on track to warm by +2.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +108 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Kenya's coast?
Coastal sea level along Kenya is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Kenya?
The share of Kenya under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 12% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Kenya?
The share of Kenya exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.5% today to 2.9% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Kenya's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.