+2.7 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +1.8 °C → +2.7 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.4 °C → +1.8 °C
Hottest month +3.3 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Madagascar Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Eastern Africa
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- MDG
Madagascar: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Madagascar, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 58 / 100
5y
- 47 Climate Medium
- 42 Nature +0.1 Medium
- 45 Social Medium
- 81 Governance Critical
- 74 Adaptation +0.0 High
Which hazards threaten Madagascar most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 6.1FloodHigh
Madagascar in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
15
Eastern Africa
#15 of 18 · median 5443
Africa
#43 of 54 · median 5324
Low income
#24 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Madagascar: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Madagascar is projected to warm +2.7 °C, with annual rainfall changing -11 mm.
-11 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -11 mm → -11 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- -18 mm → -28 mm
Driest month -3 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
17%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 16% → 17%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 17% → 19%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 8.3% today.
3.7%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 3.6% → 3.7%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 3.2% → 3.2%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3% today.
Sea level
Madagascar: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.24 m → +0.79 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.21 m → +0.57 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Access to Clean Fuels | 1.50 % population | 98.5 |
Land Surface Temperature | 32.2 deg C change | 75.0 |
Coastal Protection Needed | 80.5 % coast | 74.7 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 34.0 % of total | 66.0 |
Energy Intensity | 9.00 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 62.6 |
Flood Risk | 6.10 0-10 | 61.0 |
Cooling Degree Days | 3279 degree days | 44.9 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -1.01 index | 36.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 19.5 % of total | 20.3 |
Renewable Energy Share | 83.1 % of total energy | 13.0 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 14.0 % of total | 10.4 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 12.8 ug/m3 | 9.8 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.26 kt CO2e per capita | 6.2 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 309 kg oil eq per capita | 1.4 |
Heating Degree Days | 191 degree days | 1.3 |
Heat Index | 0.38 index | 0.3 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.09 metric tons | 0.2 |
Dependency Ratio | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Ecological Footprint | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Dam Capacity | 1.00 0-1 | 99.6 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.99 0-1 | 98.9 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.99 0-1 | 98.7 |
Protected Areas | 3.10 % of land | 96.9 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.93 0-1 | 93.3 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.89 0-1 | 88.7 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.86 0-1 | 85.7 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.85 0-1 | 84.6 |
Paved Roads | 0.84 0-1 | 84.4 |
Agricultural Land | 70.3 % of land | 83.0 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.83 0-1 | 82.5 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.82 0-1 | 82.1 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.79 0-1 | 78.9 |
Forest Area | 21.3 % of land | 77.4 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.74 0-1 | 73.7 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.71 0-1 | 71.3 |
Slum Population | 0.68 0-1 | 68.0 |
Food Production Index | 106 index | 67.3 |
Rural Population | 0.64 0-1 | 64.1 |
Tsunami Risk | 6.40 0-10 | 64.0 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 121 count | 63.4 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 22.4 % of GDP | 62.3 |
Electricity Access | 0.61 0-1 | 61.2 |
Projected Population Change | 0.57 0-1 | 57.3 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.55 0-1 | 54.9 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.54 0-1 | 54.1 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.42 0-1 | 41.9 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 3.99 % of internal resources | 36.6 |
Urban Concentration | 0.36 0-1 | 35.9 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.33 0-1 | 33.3 |
Forest Depletion | 5.56 % of GNI | 31.7 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.30 0-1 | 29.8 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.28 0-1 | 28.4 |
Population Below 5m | 0.26 0-1 | 25.9 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.22 0-1 | 21.7 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.18 0-1 | 18.1 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.14 0-1 | 14.5 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.11 0-1 | 11.2 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 5.61 % of GNI | 9.8 |
Water Bodies Extent | 90.7 % of land | 9.3 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.07 0-1 | 6.7 |
Tree Cover Loss | 234880 hectares | 3.6 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.03 0-1 | 3.4 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Water Stress | 11.3 % | 0.3 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 9.10 0-10 | 91.0 |
Food Security | 9.10 0-10 | 91.0 |
Sanitation Access | 12.3 % population | 90.1 |
Internet Users | 20.4 % population | 89.5 |
Safe Drinking Water | 22.2 % population | 82.8 |
Undernourishment | 39.7 % population | 76.2 |
Life Expectancy | 63.6 years | 71.3 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 45.5 % | 69.1 |
Access to Electricity | 39.4 % population | 64.1 |
Fertility Rate | 3.97 births per woman | 60.1 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 64.8 per 1,000 | 55.9 |
Net Migration | -1487 persons | 55.0 |
Education Expenditure | 18.0 % of govt | 52.6 |
Children Under 5 | 4.90 0-10 | 49.0 |
Health Conditions | 4.80 0-10 | 48.0 |
Recent Shocks | 4.70 0-10 | 47.0 |
GDP Growth | 4.20 % annual | 46.8 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.05 0-100 | 41.2 |
Aid Dependency | 3.60 0-10 | 36.0 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 14.6 % | 32.6 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 77.5 % | 31.0 |
School Gender Parity | 1.02 ratio | 28.9 |
Primary School Enrollment | 136 % gross | 13.1 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 94.3 ratio F/M | 10.6 |
Unemployment Rate | 3.07 % | 8.4 |
Overweight Adults | 17.0 % adults | 7.7 |
Aging Population | 3.34 % population | 5.1 |
Labor Participation | 86.3 % (15+) | 3.7 |
Uprooted People | 0.20 0-10 | 2.0 |
Population Density | 52.3 people/km2 | 0.3 |
Patent Applications | 6.00 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 157 count | 100.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 9.20 0-10 | 92.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 2.00 0-12 | 83.3 |
Healthcare Access | 7.90 0-10 | 79.0 |
INFORM Governance Index | 7.10 0-10 | 71.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -1.02 -2.5 to +2.5 | 70.5 |
Control of Corruption | -1.00 -2.5 to +2.5 | 70.0 |
Women in Parliament | 18.5 % seats | 69.7 |
Rule of Law | -0.97 -2.5 to +2.5 | 69.5 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.80 -2.5 to +2.5 | 66.0 |
Political Stability | -0.69 -2.5 to +2.5 | 63.8 |
Communication Infrastructure | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.32 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.4 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.00 0-1 | 99.9 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.04 0-1 | 96.3 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.20 0-1 | 80.5 |
Doing Business Score | 0.25 0-1 | 75.3 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.31 0-1 | 69.0 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.32 0-1 | 68.3 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.35 0-1 | 65.4 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.45 0-1 | 54.9 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.49 0-1 | 51.5 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Madagascar →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Madagascar.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Madagascar?
Madagascar: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 58 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Madagascar's risk?
Madagascar's highest pressures are governance (81, critical) and adaptation (74). Its strongest area is nature (42).
How might Madagascar's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 29% of Madagascar's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 75 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Madagascar warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Madagascar is on track to warm by +2.7 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -11 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Madagascar's coast?
Coastal sea level along Madagascar is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Madagascar?
The share of Madagascar under high water stress is projected to move from 8.3% today to 17% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Madagascar?
The share of Madagascar exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3% today to 3.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Madagascar's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.