Criora

Burkina Faso

Region Africa Subregion Western Africa Income Low income ISO BFA

Burkina Faso sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

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Standing risk

How risky is Burkina Faso, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
54 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    29 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    28 / 100
    ▲ + 0.1 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    60 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    78 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    73 / 100
    ▲ + 2.5 5y
Climate futures

Burkina Faso: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Burkina Faso is projected to warm +2.8 °C, with annual rainfall changing +202 mm.

Temperature

+2.8 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+1.9 °C → +2.8 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.6 °C → +2.1 °C

Hottest month +3.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+202 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+141 mm → +202 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+91 mm → +104 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

33%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
22% → 33%
Current path SSP3-7.0
24% → 40%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 4.6% today.

River flooding

0.2%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.6% → 0.2%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0.8% → 0.4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Burkina Faso most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Low
2.2 / 10
DRR capacity
High
6.6 / 10
Peers

Burkina Faso in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Western Africa
#8 of 16median 54
  1. 4Côte d'IvoireMedium 53
  2. 5GuineaMedium 53
  3. 6Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  4. 7SenegalMedium 53
  5. 8Burkina FasoMedium 54
  6. 9GambiaMedium 54
  7. 10BeninMedium 54
  8. 11Sierra LeoneMedium 54
  9. 12MauritaniaMedium 57
  10. 13LiberiaMedium 59
region
Africa
#29 of 54median 53
  1. 25GuineaMedium 53
  2. 26Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  3. 27SenegalMedium 53
  4. 28KenyaMedium 53
  5. 29Burkina FasoMedium 54
  6. 30GambiaMedium 54
  7. 31ZambiaMedium 54
  8. 32EritreaMedium 54
  9. 33BeninMedium 54
  10. 34MalawiMedium 54
income group
Low income
#13 of 37median 55
  1. 9Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  2. 10KenyaMedium 53
  3. 11NepalMedium 53
  4. 12North KoreaMedium 54
  5. 13Burkina FasoMedium 54
  6. 14GambiaMedium 54
  7. 15EritreaMedium 54
  8. 16BeninMedium 54
  9. 17MalawiMedium 54
  10. 18Sierra LeoneMedium 54

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Burkina Faso?
Burkina Faso sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 54 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Burkina Faso's risk?
Burkina Faso's highest pressures are governance (78, high) and adaptation (73). Its strongest area is nature (28).
How might Burkina Faso's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 5% of Burkina Faso's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 70 to 70 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Burkina Faso warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Burkina Faso is on track to warm by +2.8 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +202 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Burkina Faso?
The share of Burkina Faso under high water stress is projected to move from 4.6% today to 33% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Burkina Faso?
The share of Burkina Faso exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1% today to 0.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Burkina Faso's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.