+3.3 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.2 °C → +3.3 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.7 °C → +2.3 °C
Hottest month +4.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Malawi Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Eastern Africa
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- MWI
Malawi: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Malawi, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 55 / 100
5y
- 37 Climate Low
- 40 Nature +1.8 Medium
- 53 Social Medium
- 71 Governance High
- 71 Adaptation -1.8 High
Which hazards threaten Malawi most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 4.7FloodMedium
- 3.4DRR capacityLow
Malawi in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
10
Eastern Africa
#10 of 18 · median 5433
Africa
#33 of 54 · median 5316
Low income
#16 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Malawi: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Malawi is projected to warm +3.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +2 mm.
+2 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -1 mm → +2 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- -23 mm → -25 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
13%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 8.2% → 13%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 10% → 20%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0.1% today.
1.2%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0.8% → 1.2%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0.8% → 1.1%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.9% today.
Sea level
Landlocked, not applicable.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Access to Clean Fuels | 1.40 % population | 98.6 |
Land Surface Temperature | 31.7 deg C change | 74.0 |
Flood Risk | 4.70 0-10 | 47.0 |
Cooling Degree Days | 2872 degree days | 39.3 |
Renewable Energy Share | 62.9 % of total energy | 34.4 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 23.7 ug/m3 | 23.4 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 80.1 % of total | 19.9 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -1.91 index | 18.4 |
Energy Intensity | 3.33 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 18.4 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.26 kt CO2e per capita | 6.0 |
Heating Degree Days | 147 degree days | 1.0 |
Heat Index | 0.40 index | 0.3 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.08 metric tons | 0.2 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Dam Capacity | 1.00 0-1 | 99.9 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.98 0-1 | 98.5 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.94 0-1 | 94.3 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.93 0-1 | 92.9 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.90 0-1 | 90.0 |
Rural Population | 0.88 0-1 | 88.1 |
Electricity Access | 0.85 0-1 | 85.3 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 30.4 % of GDP | 84.5 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.83 0-1 | 83.4 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.78 0-1 | 77.7 |
Protected Areas | 22.9 % of land | 76.9 |
Agricultural Land | 64.2 % of land | 75.8 |
Forest Area | 22.9 % of land | 75.8 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.74 0-1 | 74.1 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.74 0-1 | 73.9 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.72 0-1 | 72.3 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.70 0-1 | 70.0 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.69 0-1 | 68.7 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.68 0-1 | 67.7 |
Projected Population Change | 0.65 0-1 | 64.8 |
Earthquake Risk | 6.10 0-10 | 61.0 |
Paved Roads | 0.55 0-1 | 55.4 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.54 0-1 | 54.4 |
Slum Population | 0.50 0-1 | 50.2 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 8.41 % of internal resources | 48.8 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Food Production Index | 146 index | 29.5 |
Forest Depletion | 4.28 % of GNI | 24.4 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.24 0-1 | 24.0 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.21 0-1 | 20.6 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.19 0-1 | 19.3 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.14 0-1 | 13.7 |
Urban Concentration | 0.12 0-1 | 11.9 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.11 0-1 | 10.7 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.10 0-1 | 10.4 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 4.29 % of GNI | 7.5 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.07 0-1 | 7.2 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.07 0-1 | 6.6 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 10.0 count | 5.2 |
Water Stress | 17.5 % | 0.5 |
Tree Cover Loss | 16564 hectares | 0.3 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Recent Shocks | 10.0 0-10 | 100.0 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | -6.11 % annual | 100.0 |
Internet Users | 18.0 % population | 92.2 |
Access to Electricity | 15.6 % population | 89.2 |
Safe Drinking Water | 17.8 % population | 87.6 |
Development and Deprivation | 8.30 0-10 | 83.0 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 50.7 % population | 80.5 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 49.6 % | 75.7 |
Life Expectancy | 67.4 years | 59.6 |
Food Security | 5.70 0-10 | 57.0 |
Education Expenditure | 15.8 % of govt | 56.8 |
Sanitation Access | 46.2 % population | 55.3 |
Health Conditions | 5.50 0-10 | 55.0 |
Net Migration | -5811 persons | 54.8 |
Fertility Rate | 3.65 births per woman | 54.1 |
Gini Coefficient | 38.5 0-100 | 50.5 |
GDP Growth | 1.89 % annual | 50.5 |
Uprooted People | 5.00 0-10 | 50.0 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 7.00 % | 44.3 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 68.1 % | 43.9 |
School Gender Parity | 0.99 ratio | 36.4 |
Aid Dependency | 3.60 0-10 | 36.0 |
Undernourishment | 19.9 % population | 35.7 |
Children Under 5 | 3.30 0-10 | 33.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 38.3 per 1,000 | 32.5 |
Labor Participation | 67.8 % (15+) | 32.1 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 15.4 % | 28.4 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.27 0-100 | 25.0 |
Overweight Adults | 24.3 % adults | 16.9 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 88.9 ratio F/M | 16.1 |
Unemployment Rate | 5.03 % | 14.0 |
Primary School Enrollment | 135 % gross | 13.4 |
Aging Population | 2.59 % population | 2.9 |
Population Density | 218 people/km2 | 1.2 |
Scientific Articles | 362 count | 100.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 7.30 0-10 | 73.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.86 -2.5 to +2.5 | 67.2 |
Women in Parliament | 20.7 % seats | 66.2 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.60 0-10 | 66.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.77 -2.5 to +2.5 | 65.4 |
Physical Infrastructure | 6.40 0-10 | 64.0 |
Control of Corruption | -0.60 -2.5 to +2.5 | 62.1 |
Healthcare Access | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Political Stability | -0.24 -2.5 to +2.5 | 54.7 |
Rule of Law | -0.16 -2.5 to +2.5 | 53.1 |
Voice and Accountability | 0.08 -2.5 to +2.5 | 48.5 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 3.40 0-10 | 34.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 11.0 0-12 | 8.3 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.00 0-1 | 99.9 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.00 0-1 | 99.6 |
Doing Business Score | 0.27 0-1 | 72.9 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.29 0-1 | 71.3 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.30 0-1 | 69.6 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.35 0-1 | 64.8 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.40 0-1 | 59.7 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.48 0-1 | 52.2 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.53 0-1 | 47.1 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Malawi →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Malawi.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Malawi?
Malawi: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 55 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Malawi's risk?
Malawi's highest pressures are adaptation (71, high) and governance (71). Its strongest area is climate (37).
How might Malawi's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 57% of Malawi's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Malawi warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Malawi is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +2 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.3 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Malawi?
The share of Malawi under high water stress is projected to move from 0.1% today to 13% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Malawi?
The share of Malawi exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.9% today to 1.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Malawi's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.