Criora

Malawi

Region Africa Subregion Eastern Africa Income Low income ISO MWI

Malawi sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Malawi, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
54 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    37 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    40 / 100
    ▲ + 1.8 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    52 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    71 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    71 / 100
    ▼ -1.8 5y
Climate futures

Malawi: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Malawi is projected to warm +3.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +2 mm.

Temperature

+3.3 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.2 °C → +3.3 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.7 °C → +2.3 °C

Hottest month +4.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+2 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-1 mm → +2 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-23 mm → -25 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

13%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
8.2% → 13%
Current path SSP3-7.0
10% → 20%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0.1% today.

River flooding

1.2%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.8% → 1.2%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0.8% → 1.1%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.9% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Malawi most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Medium
4.7 / 10
DRR capacity
Low
3.0 / 10
Peers

Malawi in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Eastern Africa
#11 of 18median 54
  1. 7TanzaniaMedium 53
  2. 8KenyaMedium 53
  3. 9ZambiaMedium 54
  4. 10EritreaMedium 54
  5. 11MalawiMedium 54
  6. 12BurundiMedium 55
  7. 13UgandaMedium 55
  8. 14EthiopiaMedium 56
  9. 15MadagascarMedium 57
  10. 16MozambiqueMedium 59
region
Africa
#34 of 54median 53
  1. 30GambiaMedium 54
  2. 31ZambiaMedium 54
  3. 32EritreaMedium 54
  4. 33BeninMedium 54
  5. 34MalawiMedium 54
  6. 35Sierra LeoneMedium 54
  7. 36BurundiMedium 55
  8. 37UgandaMedium 55
  9. 38CameroonMedium 55
  10. 39EgyptMedium 55
income group
Low income
#17 of 37median 55
  1. 13Burkina FasoMedium 54
  2. 14GambiaMedium 54
  3. 15EritreaMedium 54
  4. 16BeninMedium 54
  5. 17MalawiMedium 54
  6. 18Sierra LeoneMedium 54
  7. 19BurundiMedium 55
  8. 20UgandaMedium 55
  9. 21CambodiaMedium 55
  10. 22EthiopiaMedium 56

Put two countries head to head

Compare Malawi against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Malawi?
Malawi sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 54 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Malawi's risk?
Malawi's highest pressures are adaptation (71, high) and governance (71). Its strongest area is climate (37).
How might Malawi's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 57% of Malawi's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Malawi warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Malawi is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +2 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.3 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Malawi?
The share of Malawi under high water stress is projected to move from 0.1% today to 13% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Malawi?
The share of Malawi exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.9% today to 1.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Malawi's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.