+3.3 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.2 °C → +3.3 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.8 °C → +2.2 °C
Hottest month +3.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Eritrea Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Eastern Africa
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- ERI
Eritrea: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Eritrea, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 55 / 100
5y
- 27 Climate Low
- 42 Nature -1.3 Medium
- 38 Social Low
- 87 Governance Critical
- 79 Adaptation +1.1 High
Which hazards threaten Eritrea most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 1.3FloodVery low
Eritrea in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
12
Eastern Africa
#12 of 18 · median 5435
Africa
#35 of 54 · median 5318
Low income
#18 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Eritrea: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Eritrea is projected to warm +3.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +77 mm.
+77 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +68 mm → +77 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +35 mm → +59 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
15%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 25% → 15%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 16% → 25%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 34% today.
0.6%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0.6% → 0.6%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0.4% → 0.4%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.3% today.
Sea level
Eritrea: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 1 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.23 m → +0.77 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.20 m → +0.53 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Coastal Protection Needed | 96.0 % coast | 94.9 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 5.79 % of total | 94.2 |
Land Surface Temperature | 41.4 deg C change | 94.1 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 10.5 % population | 89.5 |
Cooling Degree Days | 5750 degree days | 78.7 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | 0.45 index | 64.7 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 32.4 ug/m3 | 34.2 |
Energy Intensity | 6.37 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 29.9 |
Heat Index | 28.8 index | 21.2 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 22.4 % of total | 19.2 |
Renewable Energy Share | 80.7 % of total energy | 16.2 |
Flood Risk | 1.30 0-10 | 13.0 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.53 kt CO2e per capita | 12.3 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 290 kg oil eq per capita | 1.3 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.21 metric tons | 0.6 |
Heating Degree Days | 29.0 degree days | 0.2 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Protected Areas | 0.00 % of land | 100.0 |
Dam Capacity | 1.00 0-1 | 99.7 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.99 0-1 | 99.5 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.96 0-1 | 95.6 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.94 0-1 | 93.5 |
Population Below 5m | 0.94 0-1 | 93.5 |
Forest Area | 8.67 % of land | 90.8 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.85 0-1 | 85.1 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.81 0-1 | 80.7 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.81 0-1 | 80.5 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.80 0-1 | 80.0 |
Paved Roads | 0.79 0-1 | 78.6 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.74 0-1 | 74.2 |
Agricultural Land | 62.7 % of land | 74.0 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.73 0-1 | 72.8 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.72 0-1 | 72.3 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.71 0-1 | 71.1 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.69 0-1 | 69.4 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 20.8 % of internal resources | 68.6 |
Food Production Index | 106 index | 67.1 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.62 0-1 | 61.7 |
Rural Population | 0.61 0-1 | 61.1 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.60 0-1 | 60.3 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.53 0-1 | 53.4 |
Electricity Access | 0.46 0-1 | 46.1 |
Urban Concentration | 0.39 0-1 | 38.9 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Earthquake Risk | 3.50 0-10 | 35.0 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.35 0-1 | 34.9 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.25 0-1 | 25.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.23 0-1 | 23.1 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.18 0-1 | 17.8 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.11 0-1 | 11.2 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.09 0-1 | 9.1 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 15.0 count | 7.9 |
Water Stress | 11.2 % | 0.3 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Tree Cover Loss | 0.00 hectares | 0.0 |
Hospital Beds | 1.00 per 1,000 | 93.6 |
Internet Users | 20.0 % population | 90.0 |
Primary School Enrollment | 83.0 % gross | 82.4 |
Development and Deprivation | 7.90 0-10 | 79.0 |
School Gender Parity | 0.88 ratio | 61.9 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 38.6 % | 58.4 |
Life Expectancy | 68.6 years | 55.6 |
Fertility Rate | 3.71 births per woman | 55.3 |
Net Migration | -15284 persons | 54.5 |
Food Security | 5.00 0-10 | 50.0 |
Access to Electricity | 54.4 % population | 48.2 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 76.6 % | 35.8 |
Aid Dependency | 3.40 0-10 | 34.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 35.4 per 1,000 | 30.0 |
Children Under 5 | 2.60 0-10 | 26.0 |
Health Conditions | 2.00 0-10 | 20.0 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 85.9 ratio F/M | 19.2 |
Unemployment Rate | 5.59 % | 15.6 |
Labor Participation | 80.5 % (15+) | 12.6 |
Overweight Adults | 17.2 % adults | 8.0 |
Aging Population | 4.15 % population | 7.4 |
Population Density | 28.2 people/km2 | 0.1 |
Uprooted People | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Recent Shocks | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 0.00 0-12 | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 34.3 count | 100.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -2.36 -2.5 to +2.5 | 97.3 |
Physical Infrastructure | 9.60 0-10 | 96.0 |
Voice and Accountability | -1.86 -2.5 to +2.5 | 87.2 |
Government Effectiveness | -1.79 -2.5 to +2.5 | 85.9 |
Rule of Law | -1.76 -2.5 to +2.5 | 85.2 |
INFORM Governance Index | 8.30 0-10 | 83.0 |
Control of Corruption | -1.48 -2.5 to +2.5 | 79.5 |
Political Stability | -0.79 -2.5 to +2.5 | 65.9 |
Women in Parliament | 22.0 % seats | 64.1 |
Healthcare Access | 6.10 0-10 | 61.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 6.10 0-10 | 61.0 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.02 0-1 | 98.3 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.04 0-1 | 96.3 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.09 0-1 | 91.4 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.16 0-1 | 83.7 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.30 0-1 | 69.9 |
Doing Business Score | 0.30 0-1 | 69.8 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.43 0-1 | 56.6 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Eritrea →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Eritrea.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Eritrea?
Eritrea: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 55 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Eritrea's risk?
Eritrea's highest pressures are governance (87, critical) and adaptation (79). Its strongest area is climate (27).
How might Eritrea's climate change by 2080?
Eritrea's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Eritrea warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Eritrea is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +77 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.2 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Eritrea's coast?
Coastal sea level along Eritrea is projected to rise by +0.77 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.53 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Eritrea?
The share of Eritrea under high water stress is projected to move from 34% today to 15% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Eritrea?
The share of Eritrea exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.3% today to 0.6% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Eritrea's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.