+3.0 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +1.9 °C → +3.0 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.5 °C → +2.0 °C
Hottest month +3.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Tanzania Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Eastern Africa
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- TZA
Tanzania: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Tanzania, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 53 / 100
5y
- 37 Climate Low
- 40 Nature -0.4 Low
- 46 Social Medium
- 73 Governance High
- 69 Adaptation -2.4 High
Which hazards threaten Tanzania most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 4.2FloodMedium
- 5.5DRR capacityMedium
Tanzania in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
7
Eastern Africa
#7 of 18 · median 5426
Africa
#26 of 54 · median 5310
Low income
#10 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Tanzania: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Tanzania is projected to warm +3.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing +111 mm.
+111 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +73 mm → +111 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +48 mm → +59 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
8.1%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 7.4% → 8.1%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 13% → 19%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 4.2% today.
2.5%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 2.2% → 2.5%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 1.3% → 1.8%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.9% today.
Sea level
Tanzania: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.24 m → +0.79 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.22 m → +0.57 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Access to Clean Fuels | 9.20 % population | 90.8 |
Land Surface Temperature | 31.1 deg C change | 72.8 |
Energy Imports | 12.9 % of energy use | 69.8 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 39.4 % of total | 60.6 |
Coastal Protection Needed | 67.7 % coast | 58.1 |
Flood Risk | 4.20 0-10 | 42.0 |
Cooling Degree Days | 3061 degree days | 41.9 |
Energy Intensity | 6.38 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 30.0 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 25.1 ug/m3 | 25.2 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 23.1 % of total | 19.9 |
Renewable Energy Share | 78.3 % of total energy | 18.7 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.45 kt CO2e per capita | 10.5 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 405 kg oil eq per capita | 2.0 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.24 metric tons | 0.7 |
Heating Degree Days | 40.4 degree days | 0.3 |
Heat Index | 0.08 index | 0.1 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.99 0-1 | 99.0 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.98 0-1 | 98.0 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.94 0-1 | 93.6 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.90 0-1 | 90.0 |
Paved Roads | 0.86 0-1 | 85.8 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.79 0-1 | 78.6 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.76 0-1 | 75.7 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.69 0-1 | 69.1 |
Protected Areas | 32.4 % of land | 67.6 |
Rural Population | 0.67 0-1 | 67.5 |
Projected Population Change | 0.67 0-1 | 66.5 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 23.7 % of GDP | 65.9 |
Food Production Index | 110 index | 63.5 |
Dam Capacity | 0.59 0-1 | 59.3 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.59 0-1 | 58.8 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.59 0-1 | 58.6 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.56 0-1 | 56.1 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.56 0-1 | 56.0 |
Agricultural Land | 44.6 % of land | 52.5 |
Electricity Access | 0.52 0-1 | 52.2 |
Forest Area | 50.6 % of land | 46.5 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 6.17 % of internal resources | 44.8 |
Earthquake Risk | 4.40 0-10 | 44.0 |
Slum Population | 0.41 0-1 | 41.3 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.35 0-1 | 35.0 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.35 0-1 | 34.7 |
Urban Concentration | 0.33 0-1 | 32.5 |
Tsunami Risk | 3.10 0-10 | 31.0 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.31 0-1 | 31.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.31 0-1 | 31.0 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 41.0 count | 21.5 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.19 0-1 | 19.1 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.19 0-1 | 18.6 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.13 0-1 | 13.5 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.13 0-1 | 12.9 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.13 0-1 | 12.8 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.13 0-1 | 12.7 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 3.34 % of GNI | 5.8 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.05 0-1 | 5.3 |
Tree Cover Loss | 165077 hectares | 2.5 |
Population Below 5m | 0.02 0-1 | 2.2 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.01 0-1 | 0.8 |
Water Stress | 13.0 % | 0.3 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Hospital Beds | 0.63 per 1,000 | 96.6 |
Safe Drinking Water | 11.3 % population | 94.5 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 54.3 % | 83.0 |
Internet Users | 29.1 % population | 79.8 |
Development and Deprivation | 7.90 0-10 | 79.0 |
Sanitation Access | 25.1 % population | 77.0 |
Fertility Rate | 4.61 births per woman | 71.8 |
Uprooted People | 6.10 0-10 | 61.0 |
Life Expectancy | 67.0 years | 60.7 |
Access to Electricity | 48.3 % population | 54.7 |
Gini Coefficient | 40.5 0-100 | 54.3 |
Net Migration | -39388 persons | 53.7 |
ESG Performance Score | 1.90 0-100 | 52.8 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 21.0 % | 48.7 |
Education Expenditure | 13.7 % of govt | 47.1 |
Food Security | 4.70 0-10 | 47.0 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | 0.92 % annual | 46.8 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 6.90 % | 46.5 |
Primary School Enrollment | 93.1 % gross | 45.5 |
GDP Growth | 5.07 % annual | 45.4 |
Health Conditions | 4.50 0-10 | 45.0 |
Undernourishment | 23.8 % population | 43.6 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 26.4 % population | 41.1 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 38.9 per 1,000 | 33.1 |
School Gender Parity | 1.04 ratio | 31.1 |
Children Under 5 | 2.70 0-10 | 27.0 |
Overweight Adults | 32.2 % adults | 26.9 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 82.0 % | 24.7 |
Aid Dependency | 1.80 0-10 | 18.0 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 91.7 ratio F/M | 13.2 |
Recent Shocks | 1.20 0-10 | 12.0 |
Unemployment Rate | 2.58 % | 7.0 |
Labor Participation | 85.0 % (15+) | 5.8 |
Aging Population | 3.04 % population | 4.2 |
Population Density | 73.1 people/km2 | 0.4 |
Scientific Articles | 1171 count | 99.9 |
Physical Infrastructure | 7.80 0-10 | 78.0 |
Healthcare Access | 6.50 0-10 | 65.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.59 -2.5 to +2.5 | 61.8 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.53 -2.5 to +2.5 | 60.7 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.46 -2.5 to +2.5 | 59.1 |
Legal Rights Strength | 5.00 0-12 | 58.3 |
INFORM Governance Index | 5.80 0-10 | 58.0 |
Rule of Law | -0.37 -2.5 to +2.5 | 57.5 |
Control of Corruption | -0.32 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.4 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 5.50 0-10 | 55.0 |
Political Stability | -0.05 -2.5 to +2.5 | 51.1 |
Communication Infrastructure | 5.00 0-10 | 50.0 |
Women in Parliament | 37.4 % seats | 38.9 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.03 0-1 | 97.0 |
Doing Business Score | 0.27 0-1 | 72.9 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.34 0-1 | 65.8 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.35 0-1 | 64.8 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.39 0-1 | 61.2 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.44 0-1 | 56.4 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.55 0-1 | 44.8 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.56 0-1 | 43.9 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Tanzania →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Tanzania.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Tanzania?
Tanzania: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Tanzania's risk?
Tanzania's highest pressures are governance (73, high) and adaptation (69). Its strongest area is climate (37).
How might Tanzania's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 14% of Tanzania's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 75 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Tanzania warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Tanzania is on track to warm by +3.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +111 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Tanzania's coast?
Coastal sea level along Tanzania is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Tanzania?
The share of Tanzania under high water stress is projected to move from 4.2% today to 8.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Tanzania?
The share of Tanzania exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.9% today to 2.5% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Tanzania's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.