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Tanzania

Region Africa Subregion Eastern Africa Income Low income ISO TZA

Tanzania sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Tanzania, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
53 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    37 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    40 / 100
    ▼ -0.4 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    47 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    73 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    69 / 100
    ▼ -2.4 5y
Climate futures

Tanzania: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Tanzania is projected to warm +3.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing +111 mm.

Temperature

+3.0 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+1.9 °C → +3.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.5 °C → +2.0 °C

Hottest month +3.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+111 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+73 mm → +111 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+48 mm → +59 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Tanzania: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.24 m → +0.79 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.22 m → +0.57 m

Water stress

8.1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
7.4% → 8.1%
Current path SSP3-7.0
13% → 19%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 4.2% today.

River flooding

2.5%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
2.2% → 2.5%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1.3% → 1.8%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.9% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Tanzania.

Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Tanzania most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Medium
4.2 / 10
DRR capacity
Medium
5.4 / 10
Peers

Tanzania in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Eastern Africa
#7 of 18median 54
  1. 3RwandaMedium 45
  2. 4ComorosMedium 49
  3. 5ZimbabweMedium 51
  4. 6DjiboutiMedium 52
  5. 7TanzaniaMedium 53
  6. 8KenyaMedium 53
  7. 9ZambiaMedium 54
  8. 10EritreaMedium 54
  9. 11MalawiMedium 54
  10. 12BurundiMedium 55
region
Africa
#24 of 54median 53
  1. 20LibyaMedium 51
  2. 21AngolaMedium 51
  3. 22DjiboutiMedium 52
  4. 23Côte d'IvoireMedium 53
  5. 24TanzaniaMedium 53
  6. 25GuineaMedium 53
  7. 26Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  8. 27SenegalMedium 53
  9. 28KenyaMedium 53
  10. 29Burkina FasoMedium 54
income group
Low income
#7 of 37median 55
  1. 3ComorosMedium 49
  2. 4TogoMedium 50
  3. 5ZimbabweMedium 51
  4. 6TajikistanMedium 52
  5. 7TanzaniaMedium 53
  6. 8GuineaMedium 53
  7. 9Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  8. 10KenyaMedium 53
  9. 11NepalMedium 53
  10. 12North KoreaMedium 54

Put two countries head to head

Compare Tanzania against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Tanzania?
Tanzania sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Tanzania's risk?
Tanzania's highest pressures are governance (73, high) and adaptation (69). Its strongest area is climate (37).
How might Tanzania's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 14% of Tanzania's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 75 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Tanzania warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Tanzania is on track to warm by +3.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +111 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Tanzania's coast?
Coastal sea level along Tanzania is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Tanzania?
The share of Tanzania under high water stress is projected to move from 4.2% today to 8.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Tanzania?
The share of Tanzania exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.9% today to 2.5% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Tanzania's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.