+4.0 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.9 °C → +4.0 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.3 °C → +2.6 °C
Hottest month +4.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Lebanon Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Asia
- Subregion
- Western Asia
- Income
- Upper middle income
- ISO
- LBN
Lebanon: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Lebanon, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 53 / 100
5y
- 19 Climate Very low
- 46 Nature -0.4 Medium
- 54 Social Medium
- 77 Governance High
- 71 Adaptation +1.8 High
Which hazards threaten Lebanon most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 0.0FloodVery low
- 7.3DRR capacityHigh
Lebanon in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
15
Western Asia
#15 of 18 · median 4335
Asia
#35 of 48 · median 4749
Upper middle income
#49 of 53 · median 44Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Lebanon: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Lebanon is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing -68 mm.
-68 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -30 mm → -68 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- -32 mm → -36 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
100%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 100% → 100%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 100% → 100%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 100% today.
0%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 0%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0% → 0%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.
Sea level
Lebanon: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 4 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.26 m → +0.79 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.22 m → +0.55 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Renewable Electricity Share | 5.07 % of total | 94.9 |
Renewable Energy Share | 6.80 % of total energy | 92.9 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 89.2 % of total | 88.7 |
Energy Imports | 96.9 % of energy use | 76.6 |
Land Surface Temperature | 26.1 deg C change | 62.4 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -1.00 index | 36.3 |
Cooling Degree Days | 1573 degree days | 21.5 |
Heating Degree Days | 2766 degree days | 19.0 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 19.2 ug/m3 | 17.9 |
Energy Intensity | 3.55 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 14.0 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 3.77 metric tons | 11.9 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.15 kt CO2e per capita | 3.5 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 617 kg oil eq per capita | 3.3 |
Heat Index | 0.25 index | 0.2 |
Flood Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Protected Areas | 0.80 % of land | 99.2 |
Dam Capacity | 0.99 0-1 | 99.0 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.97 0-1 | 96.9 |
Urban Concentration | 0.89 0-1 | 88.6 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.86 0-1 | 85.6 |
Forest Area | 14.1 % of land | 85.1 |
Earthquake Risk | 8.20 0-10 | 82.0 |
Agricultural Land | 66.4 % of land | 78.4 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 37.8 % of internal resources | 77.9 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.75 0-1 | 75.2 |
Food Production Index | 104 index | 68.9 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.67 0-1 | 67.2 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.62 0-1 | 61.9 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.61 0-1 | 61.4 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.61 0-1 | 60.5 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.55 0-1 | 55.2 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.55 0-1 | 55.0 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.53 0-1 | 53.1 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.48 0-1 | 48.2 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.46 0-1 | 45.9 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.42 0-1 | 42.0 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.42 0-1 | 41.5 |
Tsunami Risk | 3.90 0-10 | 39.0 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.35 0-1 | 35.0 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.35 0-1 | 34.7 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.32 0-1 | 32.3 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.25 0-1 | 25.5 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.24 0-1 | 24.1 |
Projected Population Change | 0.23 0-1 | 22.6 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.21 0-1 | 21.2 |
Population Below 5m | 0.18 0-1 | 17.8 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.15 0-1 | 15.4 |
Paved Roads | 0.15 0-1 | 15.2 |
Rural Population | 0.11 0-1 | 11.4 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.11 0-1 | 11.1 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.08 0-1 | 8.2 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.05 0-1 | 5.4 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 10.0 count | 5.2 |
Slum Population | 0.05 0-1 | 4.5 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 0.97 % of GDP | 2.7 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.02 0-1 | 1.8 |
Water Stress | 58.8 % | 1.5 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.01 0-1 | 0.8 |
Tree Cover Loss | 673 hectares | 0.0 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Recent Shocks | 10.0 0-10 | 100.0 |
Uprooted People | 10.0 0-10 | 100.0 |
Aid Dependency | 8.50 0-10 | 85.0 |
Hospital Beds | 2.73 per 1,000 | 80.9 |
Education Expenditure | 9.90 % of govt | 80.8 |
Sanitation Access | 25.7 % population | 76.4 |
Overweight Adults | 65.0 % adults | 68.1 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 41.8 ratio F/M | 64.6 |
Labor Participation | 50.7 % (15+) | 58.4 |
Safe Drinking Water | 47.7 % population | 55.7 |
Primary School Enrollment | 79.8 % gross | 55.6 |
GDP Growth | -0.76 % annual | 54.7 |
Net Migration | -34193 persons | 53.9 |
Unemployment Rate | 11.5 % | 32.6 |
Food Security | 3.10 0-10 | 31.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 3.00 0-10 | 30.0 |
Fertility Rate | 2.24 births per woman | 28.1 |
Life Expectancy | 77.8 years | 26.8 |
Aging Population | 9.82 % population | 23.7 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.30 0-100 | 23.1 |
Internet Users | 83.5 % population | 18.6 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 18.3 per 1,000 | 14.9 |
Undernourishment | 9.60 % population | 14.5 |
Children Under 5 | 1.30 0-10 | 13.0 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 93.0 % | 10.7 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 5.55 % | 6.7 |
Population Density | 562 people/km2 | 3.0 |
Health Conditions | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Scientific Articles | 2091 count | 99.8 |
Women in Parliament | 6.25 % seats | 89.8 |
Legal Rights Strength | 2.00 0-12 | 83.3 |
Government Effectiveness | -1.58 -2.5 to +2.5 | 81.6 |
Political Stability | -1.52 -2.5 to +2.5 | 80.4 |
INFORM Governance Index | 7.60 0-10 | 76.0 |
Control of Corruption | -1.23 -2.5 to +2.5 | 74.5 |
Rule of Law | -1.17 -2.5 to +2.5 | 73.3 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 7.30 0-10 | 73.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -1.01 -2.5 to +2.5 | 70.3 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.65 -2.5 to +2.5 | 63.1 |
Healthcare Access | 4.60 0-10 | 46.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 2.50 0-10 | 25.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 0.50 0-10 | 5.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.08 0-1 | 91.9 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.14 0-1 | 85.7 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.28 0-1 | 72.0 |
Doing Business Score | 0.29 0-1 | 71.4 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.30 0-1 | 69.6 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.31 0-1 | 69.1 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.36 0-1 | 64.0 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.52 0-1 | 48.2 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Lebanon →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Lebanon.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Lebanon?
Lebanon: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Lebanon's risk?
Lebanon's highest pressures are governance (77, high) and adaptation (71). Its strongest area is climate (19).
How might Lebanon's climate change by 2080?
Lebanon's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 75 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Lebanon warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Lebanon is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -68 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Lebanon's coast?
Coastal sea level along Lebanon is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.55 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Lebanon?
The share of Lebanon under high water stress is projected to move from 100% today to 100% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Lebanon?
The share of Lebanon exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Lebanon's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.