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Lebanon

Region Asia Subregion Western Asia Income Upper middle income ISO LBN

Lebanon sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Lebanon, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
53 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Very low
    19 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    46 / 100
    ▼ -0.4 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    53 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    77 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    71 / 100
    ▲ + 1.8 5y
Climate futures

Lebanon: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Lebanon is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing -68 mm.

Temperature

+4.0 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.9 °C → +4.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.3 °C → +2.6 °C

Hottest month +4.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-68 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-30 mm → -68 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-32 mm → -36 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Lebanon: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 4 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.26 m → +0.79 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.22 m → +0.55 m

Water stress

100%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
100% → 100%
Current path SSP3-7.0
100% → 100%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 100% today.

River flooding

0%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 0%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0% → 0%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Lebanon.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Lebanon most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Very low
0.0 / 10
DRR capacity
High
7.3 / 10
Peers

Lebanon in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Western Asia
#15 of 18median 43
  1. 9GeorgiaMedium 42
  2. 10JordanMedium 44
  3. 11ArmeniaMedium 44
  4. 12KuwaitMedium 44
  5. 13AzerbaijanMedium 49
  6. 14TurkeyMedium 49
  7. 15LebanonMedium 53
  8. 16IraqMedium 59
  9. 17SyriaHigh 65
  10. 18YemenHigh 66
region
Asia
#33 of 48median 47
  1. 29ThailandMedium 50
  2. 30VietnamMedium 51
  3. 31TajikistanMedium 52
  4. 32LaosMedium 52
  5. 33LebanonMedium 53
  6. 34NepalMedium 53
  7. 35TurkmenistanMedium 53
  8. 36North KoreaMedium 54
  9. 37IndonesiaMedium 54
  10. 38CambodiaMedium 55
income group
Upper middle income
#49 of 53median 44
  1. 44LibyaMedium 51
  2. 45AngolaMedium 51
  3. 46ColombiaMedium 52
  4. 47PeruMedium 52
  5. 48MexicoMedium 53
  6. 49LebanonMedium 53
  7. 50TurkmenistanMedium 53
  8. 51EcuadorMedium 55
  9. 52IranMedium 56
  10. 53VenezuelaMedium 58

Put two countries head to head

Compare Lebanon against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Lebanon?
Lebanon sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Lebanon's risk?
Lebanon's highest pressures are governance (77, high) and adaptation (71). Its strongest area is climate (19).
How might Lebanon's climate change by 2080?
Lebanon's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 75 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Lebanon warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Lebanon is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -68 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Lebanon's coast?
Coastal sea level along Lebanon is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.55 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Lebanon?
The share of Lebanon under high water stress is projected to move from 100% today to 100% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Lebanon?
The share of Lebanon exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Lebanon's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.