Criora

Ecuador

Region Americas Subregion South America Income Upper middle income ISO ECU

Ecuador sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Ecuador, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
55 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    48 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    52 / 100
    ▲ + 1.0 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    35 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    71 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    67 / 100
    ▼ -0.5 5y
Climate futures

Ecuador: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Ecuador is projected to warm +2.9 °C, with annual rainfall changing +64 mm.

Temperature

+2.9 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+1.9 °C → +2.9 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.5 °C → +1.8 °C

Hottest month +3.3 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+64 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+48 mm → +64 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+33 mm → +49 mm

Driest month -8 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Ecuador: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.21 m → +0.72 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.18 m → +0.50 m

Water stress

0%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0
0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

River flooding

3.2%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
3.1% → 3.2%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
2.3% → 2.1%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.8% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Ecuador.

Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Ecuador most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
6.5 / 10
DRR capacity
High
6.4 / 10
Peers

Ecuador in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
South America
#11 of 12median 50
  1. 3ParaguayMedium 45
  2. 4BrazilMedium 48
  3. 5ArgentinaMedium 49
  4. 6GuyanaMedium 50
  5. 7SurinameMedium 50
  6. 8BoliviaMedium 51
  7. 9ColombiaMedium 52
  8. 10PeruMedium 52
  9. 11EcuadorMedium 55
  10. 12VenezuelaMedium 58
region
Americas
#32 of 35median 44
  1. 26BoliviaMedium 51
  2. 27ColombiaMedium 52
  3. 28PeruMedium 52
  4. 29NicaraguaMedium 53
  5. 30MexicoMedium 53
  6. 31GuatemalaMedium 54
  7. 32EcuadorMedium 55
  8. 33HondurasMedium 57
  9. 34VenezuelaMedium 58
  10. 35HaitiHigh 62
income group
Upper middle income
#51 of 53median 44
  1. 44LibyaMedium 51
  2. 45AngolaMedium 51
  3. 46ColombiaMedium 52
  4. 47PeruMedium 52
  5. 48MexicoMedium 53
  6. 49LebanonMedium 53
  7. 50TurkmenistanMedium 53
  8. 51EcuadorMedium 55
  9. 52IranMedium 56
  10. 53VenezuelaMedium 58

Put two countries head to head

Compare Ecuador against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Ecuador?
Ecuador sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 55 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Ecuador's risk?
Ecuador's highest pressures are governance (71, high) and adaptation (67). Its strongest area is social (35).
How might Ecuador's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 15% of Ecuador's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 73 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Ecuador warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Ecuador is on track to warm by +2.9 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +64 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Ecuador's coast?
Coastal sea level along Ecuador is projected to rise by +0.72 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.50 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Ecuador?
The share of Ecuador under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Ecuador?
The share of Ecuador exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.8% today to 3.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Ecuador's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.