+2.9 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +1.9 °C → +2.9 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.5 °C → +1.8 °C
Hottest month +3.3 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Ecuador Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Americas
- Subregion
- South America
- Income
- Upper middle income
- ISO
- ECU
Ecuador: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Ecuador, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 55 / 100
5y
- 48 Climate Medium
- 52 Nature +1.0 Medium
- 39 Social Low
- 70 Governance High
- 67 Adaptation -0.5 High
Which hazards threaten Ecuador most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 6.5FloodHigh
- 6.4DRR capacityHigh
Ecuador in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
11
South America
#11 of 12 · median 5032
Americas
#32 of 35 · median 4451
Upper middle income
#51 of 53 · median 44Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Ecuador: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Ecuador is projected to warm +2.9 °C, with annual rainfall changing +64 mm.
+64 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +48 mm → +64 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +33 mm → +49 mm
Driest month -8 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
0%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 0%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 0% → 0%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.
3.2%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 3.1% → 3.2%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 2.3% → 2.1%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.8% today.
Sea level
Ecuador: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.21 m → +0.72 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.18 m → +0.50 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 84.0 % of total | 83.3 |
Renewable Energy Share | 18.9 % of total energy | 80.4 |
Coastal Protection Needed | 83.3 % coast | 78.3 |
Flood Risk | 6.50 0-10 | 65.0 |
Land Surface Temperature | 26.9 deg C change | 64.1 |
Energy Imports | -69.4 % of energy use | 63.3 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -0.01 index | 55.8 |
Cooling Degree Days | 2817 degree days | 38.6 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 80.9 % of total | 19.1 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 16.7 ug/m3 | 14.7 |
Energy Intensity | 3.26 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 12.3 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.30 kt CO2e per capita | 6.9 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 1.96 metric tons | 6.2 |
Heating Degree Days | 871 degree days | 6.0 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 94.5 % population | 5.5 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 905 kg oil eq per capita | 5.0 |
Heat Index | 0.04 index | 0.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Earthquake Risk | 9.50 0-10 | 95.0 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.92 0-1 | 91.8 |
Tsunami Risk | 9.00 0-10 | 90.0 |
Dam Capacity | 0.89 0-1 | 89.1 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.87 0-1 | 86.7 |
Paved Roads | 0.86 0-1 | 85.9 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.86 0-1 | 85.8 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.85 0-1 | 84.7 |
Protected Areas | 20.0 % of land | 79.8 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.76 0-1 | 76.4 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.76 0-1 | 76.2 |
Food Production Index | 98.9 index | 73.9 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.69 0-1 | 69.4 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.9 |
Urban Concentration | 0.62 0-1 | 62.1 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.60 0-1 | 59.9 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.59 0-1 | 59.1 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.58 0-1 | 58.5 |
Slum Population | 0.58 0-1 | 58.3 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.54 0-1 | 54.1 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.49 0-1 | 48.7 |
Forest Area | 49.8 % of land | 47.3 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.46 0-1 | 46.5 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.45 0-1 | 45.0 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.45 0-1 | 44.9 |
Population Below 5m | 0.44 0-1 | 43.6 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.43 0-1 | 43.2 |
Rural Population | 0.38 0-1 | 37.9 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.33 0-1 | 33.4 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.32 0-1 | 32.2 |
Projected Population Change | 0.28 0-1 | 28.1 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 2.24 % of internal resources | 26.7 |
Agricultural Land | 21.5 % of land | 25.1 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 47.0 count | 24.6 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 8.00 % of GDP | 22.2 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.20 0-1 | 20.3 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.18 0-1 | 17.8 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.11 0-1 | 11.2 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 5.75 % of GNI | 10.0 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.04 0-1 | 3.7 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.02 0-1 | 1.9 |
Electricity Access | 0.01 0-1 | 1.3 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.01 0-1 | 1.1 |
Tree Cover Loss | 30273 hectares | 0.5 |
Water Stress | 6.78 % | 0.2 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Hospital Beds | 1.30 per 1,000 | 92.4 |
Uprooted People | 8.80 0-10 | 88.0 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 4.70 % | 78.7 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | -0.96 % annual | 72.8 |
Overweight Adults | 66.8 % adults | 70.3 |
Gini Coefficient | 44.6 0-100 | 65.2 |
Education Expenditure | 9.69 % of govt | 62.6 |
Sanitation Access | 41.6 % population | 60.0 |
Net Migration | -21948 persons | 54.3 |
GDP Growth | 1.99 % annual | 50.3 |
School Gender Parity | 1.02 ratio | 49.6 |
Primary School Enrollment | 97.3 % gross | 42.3 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 68.5 ratio F/M | 37.1 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 26.0 % population | 35.3 |
Safe Drinking Water | 67.1 % population | 35.1 |
Aid Dependency | 3.50 0-10 | 35.0 |
Food Security | 3.40 0-10 | 34.0 |
Labor Participation | 67.9 % (15+) | 32.0 |
Internet Users | 72.7 % population | 30.7 |
Development and Deprivation | 2.90 0-10 | 29.0 |
Life Expectancy | 77.4 years | 28.1 |
Undernourishment | 13.9 % population | 23.4 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.30 0-100 | 23.1 |
Fertility Rate | 1.82 births per woman | 20.4 |
Aging Population | 8.09 % population | 18.7 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 12.3 % | 17.3 |
Recent Shocks | 1.70 0-10 | 17.0 |
Children Under 5 | 1.10 0-10 | 11.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 13.1 per 1,000 | 10.3 |
Unemployment Rate | 3.51 % | 9.7 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 94.0 % | 8.3 |
Health Conditions | 0.50 0-10 | 5.0 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 7.14 % | 3.1 |
Access to Electricity | 98.7 % population | 1.4 |
Population Density | 71.8 people/km2 | 0.4 |
Patent Applications | 35.0 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 3574 count | 99.6 |
Legal Rights Strength | 1.00 0-12 | 91.7 |
Rule of Law | -0.96 -2.5 to +2.5 | 69.2 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.72 -2.5 to +2.5 | 64.4 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 6.40 0-10 | 64.0 |
Control of Corruption | -0.65 -2.5 to +2.5 | 62.9 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.10 0-10 | 61.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.49 -2.5 to +2.5 | 59.9 |
Political Stability | -0.34 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.8 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.06 -2.5 to +2.5 | 51.2 |
Healthcare Access | 4.10 0-10 | 41.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 3.40 0-10 | 34.0 |
Women in Parliament | 43.1 % seats | 29.7 |
Communication Infrastructure | 2.20 0-10 | 22.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.01 0-1 | 99.1 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.28 0-1 | 72.4 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.32 0-1 | 67.9 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.32 0-1 | 67.9 |
Doing Business Score | 0.33 0-1 | 66.7 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.36 0-1 | 64.2 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.36 0-1 | 63.8 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.51 0-1 | 48.8 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.52 0-1 | 48.4 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Ecuador →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Ecuador.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Ecuador?
Ecuador: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 55 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Ecuador's risk?
Ecuador's highest pressures are governance (70, high) and adaptation (67). Its strongest area is social (39).
How might Ecuador's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 15% of Ecuador's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 73 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Ecuador warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Ecuador is on track to warm by +2.9 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +64 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Ecuador's coast?
Coastal sea level along Ecuador is projected to rise by +0.72 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.50 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Ecuador?
The share of Ecuador under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Ecuador?
The share of Ecuador exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.8% today to 3.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Ecuador's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.