What drives Honduras's risk?

Honduras's highest pressures are adaptation (74, high) and governance (73). Its strongest area is climate (44).

How might Honduras's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 10% of Honduras's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Honduras warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Honduras is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -213 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.2 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Honduras's coast?

Coastal sea level along Honduras is projected to rise by +0.90 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.75 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Honduras?

The share of Honduras under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 36% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Honduras?

The share of Honduras exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.9% today to 7.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Honduras's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Honduras Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Americas
Subregion: Central America
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: HND

Honduras: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Honduras, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 56 / 100

44 Climate Medium
45 Nature -0.3 Medium
46 Social Medium
73 Governance High
74 Adaptation +1.1 High

Which hazards threaten Honduras most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

5.4FloodMedium

Honduras in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Central America

#8 of 8 · median 52

Americas

#33 of 35 · median 44

Lower middle income

#44 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Honduras: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Honduras is projected to warm +3.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing -213 mm.

+3.3 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.1 °C → +3.3 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.8 °C → +2.2 °C

Hottest month +4.1 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-213 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: -91 mm → -213 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -57 mm → -61 mm

Driest month -4 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

36%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 36%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0% → 32%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

7.2%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 8.7% → 7.2%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 3.8% → 7.9%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.9% today.

Sea level

Honduras: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 2 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.30 m → +0.90 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.30 m → +0.75 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Coastal Protection Needed	96.0 % coast	2020	94.9	+10.6	+25.6
Energy Imports	55.5 % of energy use	2022	73.3	+2.2	+3.1
Land Surface Temperature	27.4 deg C change	2021	65.3	+0.6	0.0
Cooling Degree Days	4047 degree days	2020	55.4	+3.6	-10.7
Flood Risk	5.40 0-10	2026	54.0	+2.0	+12.0
Fossil Fuel Consumption	54.7 % of total	2022	52.8	-19.9	-23.1
Renewable Energy Share	45.9 % of total energy	2021	52.3	-23.1	-28.1
Access to Clean Fuels	50.1 % population	2022	49.9	+39.6	+44.4
Drought Index (SPEI)	-0.54 index	2021	45.3	-1.1	+2.3
Renewable Electricity Share	64.6 % of total	2021	35.4	-39.7	-32.7
PM2.5 Air Pollution	20.3 ug/m3	2020	19.2	0.0	+0.6
Energy Intensity	4.22 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	17.8	+1.2	+4.8
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.31 kt CO2e per capita	2020	7.2	+0.2	0.0
Energy Use Per Capita	573 kg oil eq per capita	2022	3.0	-5.3	-2.7
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.87 metric tons	2020	2.7	-5.0	-4.2
Heat Index	2.25 index	2020	1.7	+1.6	+1.5
Coal Electricity Share	0.56 % of total	2021	0.6	+0.6	+0.6
Heating Degree Days	9.79 degree days	2020	0.1	-1.3	+0.1

		Year		vs world	vs region
Ecological Footprint	0.98 0-1	2023	97.8	+75.2	+75.9
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.96 0-1	2023	96.4	+9.9	+2.3
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.96 0-1	2023	96.4	+12.2	+14.1
Agricultural Capacity	0.94 0-1	2023	94.1	+2.3	+3.1
Protected Areas	11.0 % of land	2023	88.9	0.0	-1.1
Dam Capacity	0.86 0-1	2023	86.0	-7.3	-0.5
Earthquake Risk	8.10 0-10	2026	81.0	+46.0	+22.0
Paved Roads	0.81 0-1	2023	80.6	+25.5	+13.6
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.77 0-1	2023	77.3	+1.0	+2.4
Food Production Index	107 index	2022	66.2	-0.9	-4.1
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	66.2	+0.4	+0.4
Tsunami Risk	6.40 0-10	2026	64.0	+53.0	+27.0
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.59 0-1	2023	59.0	-3.1	-2.5
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.59 0-1	2023	58.8	+1.2	+2.9
Urban Concentration	0.57 0-1	2023	57.1	-0.3	-10.0
Energy Import Dependency	0.56 0-1	2023	55.5	+29.8	+40.0
Age Dependency Ratio	0.52 0-1	2023	52.0	-0.8	+5.2
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.48 0-1	2023	47.9	+8.6	-6.5
Projected Warm Period Change	0.46 0-1	2023	46.4	-21.4	-5.6
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.45 0-1	2023	45.0	+5.4	-4.4
Projected Hydropower Change	0.43 0-1	2023	43.1	-0.6	-0.1
Rural Population	0.43 0-1	2023	42.9	+0.3	+10.0
Protected Biome Areas	0.41 0-1	2023	40.8	-0.2	+5.0
Forest Area	56.5 % of land	2022	40.3	-26.0	-12.3
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.39 0-1	2023	39.5	+2.3	-7.3
Agricultural Land	32.0 % of land	2022	37.5	-9.8	+3.1
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.35 0-1	2023	35.3	+14.9	+0.9
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.34 0-1	2023	33.7	+15.4	0.0
Agriculture GDP Share	12.0 % of GDP	2023	33.3	+14.4	+16.8
Slum Population	0.32 0-1	2023	31.8	+15.3	+16.3
Food Import Dependency	0.31 0-1	2023	30.6	+8.9	+5.5
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.30 0-1	2023	30.3	0.0	0.0
Projected Population Change	0.27 0-1	2023	27.0	+4.7	+7.0
Projected Groundwater Change	0.24 0-1	2023	24.4	-1.8	+2.5
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.24 0-1	2023	23.8	+10.3	+5.9
Freshwater Withdrawal	1.77 % of internal resources	2021	23.8	-26.5	-12.8
Natural Capital Dependency	0.17 0-1	2023	16.9	-4.9	-3.3
Dependency Ratio	0.12 0-1	2023	11.6	+4.8	+10.1
Population Below 5m	0.11 0-1	2023	11.0	-3.8	-3.1
Child Malnutrition	0.08 0-1	2023	7.9	-5.9	0.0
Electricity Access	0.04 0-1	2023	4.4	+4.4	+4.2
Threatened Mammal Species	8.00 count	2018	4.2	-1.0	-1.0
Water Dependency Ratio	0.02 0-1	2023	1.6	-5.3	-0.3
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.02 0-1	2023	1.5	-6.0	-1.9
Tree Cover Loss	69498 hectares	2021	1.1	+1.0	+0.8
Natural Resource Depletion	0.32 % of GNI	2021	0.6	-1.5	-1.8
Water Stress	4.62 %	2021	0.1	-0.2	-0.1
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	-0.1

		Year		vs world	vs region
Poverty Rate (National)	64.1 % population	2023	100.0	+74.2	+58.8
Hospital Beds	0.66 per 1,000	2021	97.6	+13.7	+10.5
Income Share Bottom 20%	3.60 %	2023	96.7	+31.1	+24.6
Gini Coefficient	46.8 0-100	2023	73.4	+22.1	+9.0
Uprooted People	6.70 0-10	2026	67.0	+8.0	+7.0
Overweight Adults	63.8 % adults	2022	66.5	+10.5	0.0
Aid Dependency	5.90 0-10	2026	59.0	+34.0	+34.0
Development and Deprivation	5.70 0-10	2026	57.0	+27.0	+28.0
Shared Prosperity Growth	0.17 % annual	2023	55.0	+1.1	-1.4
Net Migration	-5044 persons	2023	54.9	-0.1	-0.1
Gender Labor Ratio	52.9 ratio F/M	2023	53.2	+26.2	+19.1
Primary School Enrollment	86.6 % gross	2023	50.4	+8.4	+6.9
Sanitation Access	52.6 % population	2022	48.7	+8.7	-5.8
GDP Growth	3.58 % annual	2023	47.8	-1.1	-1.0
Internet Users	58.3 % population	2023	46.9	+26.0	+22.6
Labor Participation	59.3 % (15+)	2023	45.2	+15.1	+15.0
Life Expectancy	72.9 years	2023	42.3	+2.8	+6.5
Education Expenditure	15.4 % of govt	2023	40.6	-6.5	-10.5
Food Security	4.00 0-10	2026	40.0	+22.0	+22.0
Safe Drinking Water	65.2 % population	2022	37.1	+15.6	+1.0
Undernourishment	20.4 % population	2022	36.7	+30.9	+32.2
Fertility Rate	2.50 births per woman	2023	32.9	+9.6	+14.7
ESG Performance Score	2.17 0-100	2018	32.3	+7.3	+7.8
Unmet Contraception Need	12.9 %	2019	21.5	-14.1	+13.0
Unemployment Rate	6.07 %	2023	17.0	+2.8	0.0
Adult Literacy Rate	89.0 %	2019	15.7	+5.0	+8.6
Communicable Disease Deaths	10.7 %	2019	14.7	-1.4	-1.8
Children Under 5	1.40 0-10	2026	14.0	+3.0	+4.0
Recent Shocks	1.30 0-10	2026	13.0	+12.0	+7.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	15.5 per 1,000	2023	12.4	+0.2	+1.8
Health Conditions	0.90 0-10	2026	9.0	+1.0	+1.0
Aging Population	4.29 % population	2023	7.8	-8.6	-14.5
Access to Electricity	95.6 % population	2023	4.7	+4.7	+4.5
Population Density	93.5 people/km2	2022	0.5	0.0	+0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	8.00 count	2018	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	159 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
R&D Expenditure	0.06 % of GDP	2019	99.4	+11.9	+4.1
Control of Corruption	-1.11 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	72.2	+16.6	+15.0
Rule of Law	-1.10 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	71.9	+19.0	+15.7
INFORM Governance Index	7.00 0-10	2026	70.0	+14.0	+14.0
Government Effectiveness	-0.80 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	65.9	+14.2	+14.4
Regulatory Quality	-0.55 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	61.0	+8.3	+11.1
Political Stability	-0.46 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	59.2	+9.4	+13.5
Voice and Accountability	-0.45 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	59.1	+10.3	+19.8
Women in Parliament	27.3 % seats	2023	55.4	-2.8	+2.5
Healthcare Access	5.40 0-10	2026	54.0	+17.0	+25.0
Physical Infrastructure	3.70 0-10	2026	37.0	+7.0	+8.0
Communication Infrastructure	3.40 0-10	2026	34.0	+14.0	+14.0
Legal Rights Strength	8.00 0-12	2019	33.3	-16.7	-25.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.00 0-1	2023	99.6	+4.9	+1.8
Education (Readiness)	0.13 0-1	2023	86.8	+13.8	+17.8
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.17 0-1	2023	83.1	+18.8	+17.3
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.19 0-1	2023	80.6	+29.1	+12.3
Doing Business Score	0.25 0-1	2023	74.7	+16.3	+13.3
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.29 0-1	2023	70.6	+18.6	+15.4
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.40 0-1	2023	60.4	+7.8	+11.0
ICT Infrastructure	0.43 0-1	2023	57.2	+9.5	+12.3
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.49 0-1	2023	50.9	+7.8	+11.6

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Honduras?
Honduras: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 56 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Honduras's risk?
Honduras's highest pressures are adaptation (74, high) and governance (73). Its strongest area is climate (44).
How might Honduras's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 10% of Honduras's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Honduras warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Honduras is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -213 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.2 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Honduras's coast?
Coastal sea level along Honduras is projected to rise by +0.90 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.75 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Honduras?
The share of Honduras under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 36% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Honduras?
The share of Honduras exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.9% today to 7.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Honduras's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.