Panama: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 44 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Panama's risk?

Panama's highest pressures are governance (66, high) and adaptation (62). Its strongest area is climate (16).

How might Panama's climate change by 2080?

Panama's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Panama warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Panama is on track to warm by +2.7 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +190 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Panama's coast?

Coastal sea level along Panama is projected to rise by +0.82 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.61 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Panama?

The share of Panama under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Panama?

The share of Panama exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.3% today to 0.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Panama's risk data last updated?

Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Panama Climate risk profile and hazard map

Name: Panama country risk profile
Creator: Criora
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Region: Americas
Subregion: Central America
Income: Upper middle income
ISO: PAN

Panama: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Panama, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 44 / 100

16 Climate Very low
45 Nature +0.2 Medium
30 Social Low
66 Governance High
62 Adaptation +1.0 High

Which hazards threaten Panama most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

0.2FloodVery low
9.0DRR capacityCritical

Panama in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Central America

#2 of 8 · median 52

Americas

#16 of 35 · median 45

Upper middle income

#23 of 53 · median 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Panama: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Panama is projected to warm +2.7 °C, with annual rainfall changing +190 mm.

+2.7 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +1.9 °C → +2.7 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.5 °C → +1.8 °C

Hottest month +2.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+190 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +196 mm → +190 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +221 mm → +251 mm

Driest month -2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

0.8%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.8% → 0.8%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 1.1% → 0.8%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.3% today.

Sea level

Panama: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Panama City, Max depth 4.1 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.26 m → +0.82 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.23 m → +0.61 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Coastal Protection Needed	88.5 % coast	2024	87.2	+13.5	+14.1
Energy Imports	171 % of energy use	2022	82.5	+11.4	+12.2
Renewable Energy Share	28.0 % of total energy	2021	70.9	-4.5	-9.5
Cooling Degree Days	4887 degree days	2024	65.2	+11.1	-2.3
Land Surface Temperature	27.2 deg C change	2021	64.7	0.0	-0.6
Fossil Fuel Consumption	0.00 % of total	2023	50.0	0.0	0.0
Drought Index (SPEI)	-1.22 index	2023	25.8	-18.3	-15.3
Renewable Electricity Share	79.3 % of total	2021	20.7	-54.4	-47.5
PM2.5 Air Pollution	11.5 ug/m3	2020	8.2	-11.0	-10.4
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	2.23 metric tons	2020	7.0	-0.7	+0.1
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.29 kt CO2e per capita	2020	6.8	-0.2	-0.4
Energy Use Per Capita	1020 kg oil eq per capita	2023	5.8	-2.8	0.0
Coal Electricity Share	3.49 % of total	2023	3.5	-10.6	-2.8
Flood Risk	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-50.0	-40.0
Energy Intensity	1.41 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	1.8	-14.8	-11.2
Heat Index	0.99 days	2024	0.6	-3.6	-1.6
Heating Degree Days	1.81 degree days	2024	0.0	-13.0	-1.1
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2023	0.0	-8.3	-5.6

		Year		vs world	vs region
Energy Import Dependency	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+74.3	+84.5
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.96 0-1	2023	96.0	+9.5	+1.9
Agricultural Capacity	0.91 0-1	2023	91.0	-0.8	0.0
Tsunami Risk	8.60 0-10	2026	86.0	+75.0	+49.0
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.83 0-1	2023	82.5	-1.7	+0.2
Earthquake Risk	7.80 0-10	2026	78.0	+43.0	+19.0
Protected Areas	27.2 % of land	2024	72.7	-15.6	-17.1
Disaster Preparedness	0.72 0-1	2023	72.5	+42.5	+47.5
Urban Concentration	0.67 0-1	2023	67.1	+9.7	0.0
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.9	+0.1	+0.1
Paved Roads	0.59 0-1	2023	58.7	+3.7	-8.3
Food Production Index	115 index	2022	58.3	-8.8	-12.0
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.58 0-1	2023	58.3	-18.0	-16.6
Projected Warm Period Change	0.56 0-1	2023	55.6	-12.1	+3.6
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.50 0-1	2023	49.7	+12.5	+2.9
Age Dependency Ratio	0.50 0-1	2023	49.6	-3.1	+2.8
Dam Capacity	0.48 0-1	2023	47.6	-45.7	-38.9
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.47 0-1	2023	47.1	-10.5	-8.8
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.8	+4.2	-5.6
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.44 0-1	2023	43.6	-18.5	-17.9
Projected Hydropower Change	0.43 0-1	2023	42.9	-0.8	-0.3
Forest Area	56.3 % of land	2023	40.3	-26.0	-12.1
Population Below 5m	0.36 0-1	2023	36.3	+21.5	+22.2
Agricultural Land	29.5 % of land	2023	33.8	-10.5	0.0
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.34 0-1	2023	33.6	+15.3	-0.1
Rural Population	0.33 0-1	2023	32.9	-9.7	0.0
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.30 0-1	2023	30.3	0.0	0.0
Protected Biome Areas	0.30 0-1	2023	29.6	-11.4	-6.2
Projected Population Change	0.29 0-1	2023	28.5	+6.2	+8.5
Projected Groundwater Change	0.29 0-1	2023	28.5	+2.3	+6.6
Food Import Dependency	0.26 0-1	2023	25.6	+3.9	+0.5
Water Bodies Extent	75.2 % of land	2023	24.8	-7.4	-8.9
Ecological Footprint	0.22 0-1	2023	21.9	-0.7	0.0
Natural Capital Dependency	0.18 0-1	2023	18.4	-3.4	-1.8
Slum Population	0.16 0-1	2023	16.4	-0.1	+0.8
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.14 0-1	2023	14.0	+0.5	-3.9
Freshwater Withdrawal	0.89 % of internal resources	2022	14.0	-36.3	-25.8
Threatened Mammal Species	18.0 count	2022	8.5	+3.3	+3.8
Agriculture GDP Share	2.68 % of GDP	2024	6.3	-9.4	-7.4
Child Malnutrition	0.05 0-1	2023	4.5	-9.3	-3.4
Electricity Access	0.03 0-1	2023	3.0	+3.0	+2.8
Natural Resource Depletion	1.33 % of GNI	2021	2.3	+0.2	-0.1
Water Dependency Ratio	0.02 0-1	2023	1.9	-5.0	0.0
Dependency Ratio	0.01 0-1	2023	1.4	-5.4	-0.1
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.01 0-1	2023	0.7	-6.8	-2.7
Tree Cover Loss	21553 hectares	2024	0.4	+0.3	-0.5
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	-0.1
Water Stress	0.90 %	2022	0.0	-0.3	-0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Income Share Bottom 20%	3.60 %	2024	93.8	+32.9	+23.5
Hospital Beds	1.95 per 1,000	2023	83.0	+9.1	+1.2
Gini Coefficient	49.7 0-100	2024	82.6	+35.6	+24.8
Shared Prosperity Growth	-1.43 % annual	2023	80.2	+26.4	+23.8
Overweight Adults	71.6 % adults	2022	76.4	+20.4	+9.9
Primary School Enrollment	96.9 % gross	2024	66.9	+2.6	+0.7
Uprooted People	6.30 0-10	2026	63.0	+4.0	+3.0
Net Migration	6706 persons	2024	52.4	+0.3	+0.3
Education Expenditure	16.3 % of govt	2024	48.9	-9.1	-11.5
GDP Growth	7.40 % annual	2023	41.7	-7.2	-7.0
School Gender Parity	1.01 ratio	2021	39.0	-2.0	-3.4
ESG Performance Score	3.12 0-100	2020	37.6	+21.1	+18.3
Communicable Disease Deaths	26.0 %	2021	36.7	+0.1	-2.4
Gender Labor Ratio	70.3 ratio F/M	2024	34.4	+9.0	+2.0
Poverty Rate (National)	21.7 % population	2023	29.9	+2.3	-8.1
Internet Users	72.8 % population	2024	29.8	+10.3	+7.8
Aid Dependency	2.70 0-10	2026	27.0	+2.0	+2.0
Labor Participation	71.8 % (15+)	2024	26.4	-2.5	-3.8
Fertility Rate	2.11 births per woman	2024	25.7	+2.7	+7.5
Unemployment Rate	8.45 %	2024	24.1	+10.0	+6.1
Aging Population	9.35 % population	2024	22.3	+5.4	-0.9
Life Expectancy	79.8 years	2024	21.1	-18.6	-15.9
Under-5 Mortality Rate	15.3 per 1,000	2024	12.2	+0.3	+1.9
Development and Deprivation	1.20 0-10	2026	12.0	-18.0	-17.0
Food Security	1.10 0-10	2026	11.0	-7.0	-7.0
Health Conditions	0.90 0-10	2026	9.0	+1.0	+1.0
Children Under 5	0.90 0-10	2026	9.0	-2.0	-1.0
Undernourishment	5.70 % population	2023	6.2	+1.0	+0.5
Adult Literacy Rate	96.2 %	2024	5.4	-3.1	-2.3
Recent Shocks	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	+3.0	-2.0
Access to Electricity	97.0 % population	2023	3.2	+3.2	+3.0
Population Density	60.1 people/km2	2023	0.3	-0.2	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	35.0 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	376 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
R&D Expenditure	0.20 % of GDP	2024	91.7	+3.8	+8.6
Disaster Risk Reduction	9.00 0-10	2026	90.0	+48.5	+53.0
Women in Parliament	21.4 % seats	2024	66.4	+7.3	+14.5
Control of Corruption	-0.63 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	62.6	+7.0	+5.4
Rule of Law	-0.35 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	56.9	+3.9	+0.7
INFORM Governance Index	5.60 0-10	2026	56.0	0.0	0.0
Government Effectiveness	-0.21 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	54.2	+2.5	+2.7
Regulatory Quality	0.12 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	47.6	-5.1	-2.3
Political Stability	0.21 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	45.7	-4.1	0.0
Voice and Accountability	0.55 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	39.0	-9.9	-0.3
Physical Infrastructure	3.50 0-10	2026	35.0	+5.0	+6.0
Legal Rights Strength	8.00 0-12	2019	33.3	-16.7	-25.0
Healthcare Access	2.40 0-10	2026	24.0	-13.0	-5.0
Communication Infrastructure	1.50 0-10	2026	15.0	-5.0	-5.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.04 0-1	2023	96.2	+1.5	-1.6
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.24 0-1	2023	76.1	+24.6	+7.8
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.28 0-1	2023	71.9	+7.6	+6.1
Education (Readiness)	0.35 0-1	2023	65.2	-7.8	-3.8
Doing Business Score	0.38 0-1	2023	61.7	+3.3	+0.3
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.44 0-1	2023	55.9	+3.9	+0.7
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.53 0-1	2023	47.2	-5.4	-2.2
ICT Infrastructure	0.55 0-1	2023	44.9	-2.8	0.0
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.61 0-1	2023	39.3	-3.8	0.0

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Panama: ask your AI assistant

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Panama: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Panama?
Panama: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 44 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Panama's risk?
Panama's highest pressures are governance (66, high) and adaptation (62). Its strongest area is climate (16).
How might Panama's climate change by 2080?
Panama's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Panama warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Panama is on track to warm by +2.7 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +190 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Panama's coast?
Coastal sea level along Panama is projected to rise by +0.82 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.61 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Panama?
The share of Panama under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Panama?
The share of Panama exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.3% today to 0.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Panama's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.