+3.3 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.2 °C → +3.3 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.6 °C → +2.0 °C
Hottest month +4.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Brazil Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Americas
- Subregion
- South America
- Income
- Upper middle income
- ISO
- BRA
Brazil: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Brazil, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 48 / 100
5y
- 54 Climate Medium
- 24 Nature +0.2 Low
- 31 Social Low
- 64 Governance High
- 65 Adaptation -1.2 High
Which hazards threaten Brazil most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 7.7FloodHigh
- 3.0DRR capacityLow
Brazil in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
4
South America
#4 of 12 · median 5020
Americas
#20 of 35 · median 4435
Upper middle income
#35 of 53 · median 44Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Brazil: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Brazil is projected to warm +3.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing -90 mm.
-90 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -70 mm → -90 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- -15 mm → -21 mm
Driest month -6 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
2.2%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 2.1% → 2.2%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 2.1% → 2.6%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0.9% today.
8.2%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 8.2% → 8.2%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 7% → 7.2%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 7% today.
Sea level
Brazil: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.23 m → +0.77 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.20 m → +0.56 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Coastal Protection Needed | 97.5 % coast | 96.7 |
Energy Imports | -13.6 % of energy use | 85.9 |
Flood Risk | 7.70 0-10 | 77.0 |
Land Surface Temperature | 28.8 deg C change | 68.1 |
Cooling Degree Days | 4610 degree days | 63.1 |
Renewable Energy Share | 46.5 % of total energy | 51.7 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 49.4 % of total | 45.3 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -1.34 index | 28.6 |
Energy Intensity | 3.87 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 22.6 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 77.4 % of total | 22.6 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.92 kt CO2e per capita | 21.4 |
Methane Emissions Per Capita | 2.15 kt CO2e per capita | 17.3 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 1477 kg oil eq per capita | 9.3 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 12.2 ug/m3 | 9.1 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 1.98 metric tons | 6.2 |
Coal Electricity Share | 1.99 % of total | 4.3 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 96.5 % population | 3.5 |
Heating Degree Days | 86.5 degree days | 0.6 |
Heat Index | 0.32 index | 0.2 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Tree Cover Loss | 2991909 hectares | 100.0 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.95 0-1 | 95.3 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.88 0-1 | 88.0 |
Paved Roads | 0.87 0-1 | 87.2 |
Urban Concentration | 0.87 0-1 | 86.8 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.76 0-1 | 75.5 |
Protected Areas | 29.5 % of land | 70.3 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.70 0-1 | 69.9 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.70 0-1 | 69.6 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.5 |
Food Production Index | 114 index | 59.9 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.53 0-1 | 52.9 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.51 0-1 | 51.0 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.48 0-1 | 48.2 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.46 0-1 | 46.2 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.43 0-1 | 42.9 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 80.0 count | 41.9 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.40 0-1 | 40.1 |
Forest Area | 59.1 % of land | 37.4 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.35 0-1 | 34.5 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.33 0-1 | 33.2 |
Agricultural Land | 26.7 % of land | 31.1 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.30 0-1 | 30.3 |
Water Bodies Extent | 71.0 % of land | 29.0 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.28 0-1 | 28.4 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.27 0-1 | 27.4 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.26 0-1 | 26.2 |
Projected Population Change | 0.18 0-1 | 17.6 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 1.19 % of internal resources | 16.9 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 6.02 % of GDP | 16.7 |
Dam Capacity | 0.16 0-1 | 15.9 |
Slum Population | 0.15 0-1 | 15.0 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.14 0-1 | 14.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.13 0-1 | 13.5 |
Rural Population | 0.13 0-1 | 13.2 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.13 0-1 | 12.9 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.08 0-1 | 7.9 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 3.75 % of GNI | 6.5 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.60 0-10 | 6.0 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.04 0-1 | 3.9 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.01 0-1 | 1.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.3 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.2 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Water Stress | 1.48 % | 0.0 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 3.70 % | 95.1 |
Gini Coefficient | 51.6 0-100 | 91.4 |
Hospital Beds | 2.46 per 1,000 | 83.1 |
Uprooted People | 7.20 0-10 | 72.0 |
Education Expenditure | 12.8 % of govt | 69.8 |
Overweight Adults | 63.0 % adults | 65.6 |
Primary School Enrollment | 104 % gross | 59.0 |
School Gender Parity | 1.01 ratio | 55.9 |
Sanitation Access | 49.6 % population | 51.8 |
GDP Growth | 3.24 % annual | 48.3 |
Net Migration | -240059 persons | 46.9 |
Development and Deprivation | 3.50 0-10 | 35.0 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 72.8 ratio F/M | 32.7 |
Labor Participation | 70.3 % (15+) | 28.4 |
Life Expectancy | 75.8 years | 28.3 |
Aging Population | 10.6 % population | 26.1 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.29 0-100 | 23.3 |
Unemployment Rate | 7.95 % | 22.4 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 13.7 % | 19.4 |
Internet Users | 84.2 % population | 17.8 |
Fertility Rate | 1.62 births per woman | 16.6 |
Safe Drinking Water | 87.3 % population | 13.6 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 14.4 per 1,000 | 11.5 |
Children Under 5 | 1.00 0-10 | 10.0 |
Recent Shocks | 0.90 0-10 | 9.0 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | 1.25 % annual | 8.2 |
Food Security | 0.80 0-10 | 8.0 |
Health Conditions | 0.80 0-10 | 8.0 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 94.7 % | 7.3 |
Undernourishment | 3.90 % population | 2.9 |
Access to Electricity | 99.8 % population | 0.2 |
Population Density | 25.2 people/km2 | 0.1 |
Aid Dependency | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Patent Applications | 4666 count | 99.7 |
Scientific Articles | 67031 count | 92.5 |
Legal Rights Strength | 2.00 0-12 | 83.3 |
R&D Expenditure | 1.15 % of GDP | 80.8 |
Women in Parliament | 17.5 % seats | 71.4 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.55 -2.5 to +2.5 | 60.9 |
Control of Corruption | -0.50 -2.5 to +2.5 | 60.1 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.00 0-10 | 60.0 |
Political Stability | -0.41 -2.5 to +2.5 | 58.2 |
Rule of Law | -0.31 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.2 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.30 -2.5 to +2.5 | 55.9 |
Voice and Accountability | 0.38 -2.5 to +2.5 | 42.3 |
Physical Infrastructure | 3.30 0-10 | 33.0 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 3.00 0-10 | 30.0 |
Healthcare Access | 2.80 0-10 | 28.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 1.90 0-10 | 19.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.11 0-1 | 89.4 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.25 0-1 | 74.6 |
Doing Business Score | 0.30 0-1 | 69.7 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.31 0-1 | 69.1 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.36 0-1 | 63.8 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.45 0-1 | 55.4 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.45 0-1 | 55.2 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.50 0-1 | 50.0 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.58 0-1 | 42.3 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Brazil →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Brazil.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Brazil?
Brazil: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 48 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Brazil's risk?
Brazil's highest pressures are adaptation (65, high) and governance (64). Its strongest area is nature (24).
How might Brazil's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 7% of Brazil's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Brazil warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Brazil is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -90 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Brazil's coast?
Coastal sea level along Brazil is projected to rise by +0.77 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.56 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Brazil?
The share of Brazil under high water stress is projected to move from 0.9% today to 2.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Brazil?
The share of Brazil exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 7% today to 8.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Brazil's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.