+3.2 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.1 °C → +3.2 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.6 °C → +2.1 °C
Hottest month +3.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
South Africa Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Southern Africa
- Income
- Upper middle income
- ISO
- ZAF
South Africa: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is South Africa, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 41 / 100
5y
- 32 Climate Low
- 27 Nature -0.3 Low
- 33 Social Low
- 48 Governance Medium
- 64 Adaptation -0.5 High
Which hazards threaten South Africa most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 3.2FloodLow
- 6.7DRR capacityHigh
South Africa in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
1
Southern Africa
#1 of 5 · median 464
Africa
#4 of 54 · median 5414
Upper middle income
#14 of 53 · median 44Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
South Africa: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, South Africa is projected to warm +3.2 °C, with annual rainfall changing -4 mm.
-4 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +8 mm → -4 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +11 mm → +2 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
45%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 39% → 45%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 37% → 41%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 32% today.
1.3%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 1.1% → 1.3%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 1.3% → 1.3%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.4% today.
Sea level
South Africa: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 3 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.25 m → +0.80 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.22 m → +0.58 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Flood Risk | 3.20 0-10 | 32.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.94 0-1 | 94.3 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.91 0-1 | 91.2 |
Dam Capacity | 0.87 0-1 | 87.4 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.84 0-1 | 83.9 |
Paved Roads | 0.84 0-1 | 83.7 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.67 0-1 | 66.5 |
Urban Concentration | 0.66 0-1 | 66.4 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.61 0-1 | 60.9 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.60 0-1 | 60.0 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.53 0-1 | 52.5 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.52 0-1 | 52.2 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.45 0-1 | 45.2 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.44 0-1 | 43.9 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.40 0-1 | 39.9 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.40 0-1 | 39.7 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.36 0-1 | 35.9 |
Rural Population | 0.34 0-1 | 33.6 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.30 0-1 | 30.5 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.30 0-1 | 29.5 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.29 0-1 | 28.6 |
Projected Population Change | 0.26 0-1 | 26.1 |
Slum Population | 0.24 0-1 | 24.4 |
Earthquake Risk | 1.50 0-10 | 15.0 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.15 0-1 | 14.9 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.13 0-1 | 12.8 |
Electricity Access | 0.12 0-1 | 12.4 |
Tsunami Risk | 1.10 0-10 | 11.0 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.09 0-1 | 9.4 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.09 0-1 | 8.7 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.08 0-1 | 7.5 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.06 0-1 | 6.3 |
Population Below 5m | 0.01 0-1 | 1.2 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.01 0-1 | 0.8 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Uprooted People | 5.80 0-10 | 58.0 |
Health Conditions | 4.90 0-10 | 49.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 4.30 0-10 | 43.0 |
Food Security | 3.70 0-10 | 37.0 |
Children Under 5 | 1.90 0-10 | 19.0 |
Aid Dependency | 0.60 0-10 | 6.0 |
Recent Shocks | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 6.70 0-10 | 67.0 |
INFORM Governance Index | 5.70 0-10 | 57.0 |
Healthcare Access | 4.60 0-10 | 46.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 4.00 0-10 | 40.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 1.60 0-10 | 16.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.14 0-1 | 86.0 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.16 0-1 | 83.8 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.19 0-1 | 81.3 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.36 0-1 | 64.0 |
Doing Business Score | 0.38 0-1 | 61.8 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.46 0-1 | 54.5 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.46 0-1 | 54.0 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.46 0-1 | 53.5 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.53 0-1 | 47.4 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in South Africa →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside South Africa.
Where exactly?
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South Africa: ask your AI assistant
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- South Africa: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
- Southern Africa: which countries are most at risk?
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is South Africa?
South Africa: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 41 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives South Africa's risk?
South Africa's highest pressures are adaptation (64, high) and governance (48). Its strongest area is nature (27).
How might South Africa's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 12% of South Africa's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 68 to 68 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will South Africa warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), South Africa is on track to warm by +3.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -4 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along South Africa's coast?
Coastal sea level along South Africa is projected to rise by +0.80 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.58 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in South Africa?
The share of South Africa under high water stress is projected to move from 32% today to 45% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in South Africa?
The share of South Africa exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.4% today to 1.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was South Africa's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.