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South Africa

Region Africa Subregion Southern Africa Income Upper middle income ISO ZAF

South Africa sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is South Africa, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
41 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    32 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    27 / 100
    ▼ -0.3 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    32 / 100
  4. Governance
    Medium
    47 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    64 / 100
    ▼ -0.5 5y
Climate futures

South Africa: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, South Africa is projected to warm +3.2 °C, with annual rainfall changing -4 mm.

Temperature

+3.2 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.1 °C → +3.2 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.6 °C → +2.1 °C

Hottest month +3.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-4 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+8 mm → -4 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+11 mm → +2 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

South Africa: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 3 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.25 m → +0.80 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.22 m → +0.58 m

Water stress

45%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
39% → 45%
Current path SSP3-7.0
37% → 41%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 32% today.

River flooding

1.3%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
1.1% → 1.3%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1.3% → 1.3%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.4% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside South Africa.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten South Africa most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Low
3.2 / 10
DRR capacity
High
6.4 / 10
Peers

South Africa in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Southern Africa
#1 of 5median 46
  1. 1South AfricaMedium 41
  2. 2BotswanaMedium 44
  3. 3eSwatiniMedium 46
  4. 4NamibiaMedium 47
  5. 5LesothoMedium 48
region
Africa
#4 of 54median 53
  1. 1MauritiusLow 34
  2. 2SeychellesLow 36
  3. 3Cabo VerdeLow 38
  4. 4South AfricaMedium 41
  5. 5São Tomé and PrincipeMedium 43
  6. 6BotswanaMedium 44
  7. 7RwandaMedium 45
  8. 8TunisiaMedium 46
  9. 9eSwatiniMedium 46
  10. 10NamibiaMedium 47
income group
Upper middle income
#14 of 53median 44
  1. 10Antigua and Barb.Low 38
  2. 11PalauLow 39
  3. 12MontenegroLow 40
  4. 13JamaicaMedium 40
  5. 14South AfricaMedium 41
  6. 15MaldivesMedium 41
  7. 16BelarusMedium 41
  8. 17CubaMedium 43
  9. 18TuvaluMedium 43
  10. 19North MacedoniaMedium 43

Put two countries head to head

Compare South Africa against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is South Africa?
South Africa sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 41 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives South Africa's risk?
South Africa's highest pressures are adaptation (64, high) and governance (47). Its strongest area is nature (27).
How might South Africa's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 12% of South Africa's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 68 to 68 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will South Africa warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), South Africa is on track to warm by +3.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -4 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along South Africa's coast?
Coastal sea level along South Africa is projected to rise by +0.80 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.58 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in South Africa?
The share of South Africa under high water stress is projected to move from 32% today to 45% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in South Africa?
The share of South Africa exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.4% today to 1.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was South Africa's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.