Criora

Lesotho

Region Africa Subregion Southern Africa Income Lower middle income ISO LSO

Lesotho sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Lesotho, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
48 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    26 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    24 / 100
    ▼ -0.6 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    48 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    74 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    70 / 100
    ▲ + 1.3 5y
Climate futures

Lesotho: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Lesotho is projected to warm +3.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +20 mm.

Temperature

+3.3 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.2 °C → +3.3 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.7 °C → +2.2 °C

Hottest month +2.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+20 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+37 mm → +20 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+8 mm → +11 mm

Driest month -2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

22%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 22%
Current path SSP3-7.0
0% → 22%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

River flooding

1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
1% → 1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1% → 0.8%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.6% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Lesotho most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Low
2.1 / 10
Peers

Lesotho in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Southern Africa
#5 of 5median 46
  1. 1South AfricaMedium 41
  2. 2BotswanaMedium 44
  3. 3eSwatiniMedium 46
  4. 4NamibiaMedium 47
  5. 5LesothoMedium 48
region
Africa
#13 of 54median 53
  1. 9eSwatiniMedium 46
  2. 10NamibiaMedium 47
  3. 11MoroccoMedium 48
  4. 12GabonMedium 48
  5. 13LesothoMedium 48
  6. 14Eq. GuineaMedium 49
  7. 15ComorosMedium 49
  8. 16GhanaMedium 49
  9. 17AlgeriaMedium 49
  10. 18TogoMedium 50
income group
Lower middle income
#23 of 53median 49
  1. 19Marshall Is.Medium 47
  2. 20MicronesiaMedium 47
  3. 21Timor-LesteMedium 47
  4. 22MoroccoMedium 48
  5. 23LesothoMedium 48
  6. 24UkraineMedium 48
  7. 25Solomon Is.Medium 48
  8. 26VanuatuMedium 48
  9. 27GhanaMedium 49
  10. 28UzbekistanMedium 50

Put two countries head to head

Compare Lesotho against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Lesotho?
Lesotho sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 48 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Lesotho's risk?
Lesotho's highest pressures are governance (74, high) and adaptation (70). Its strongest area is nature (24).
How might Lesotho's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 17% of Lesotho's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 75 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Lesotho warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Lesotho is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +20 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.2 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Lesotho?
The share of Lesotho under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 22% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Lesotho?
The share of Lesotho exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.6% today to 1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Lesotho's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.