+3.3 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.2 °C → +3.3 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.7 °C → +2.2 °C
Hottest month +2.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Lesotho Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Southern Africa
- Income
- Lower middle income
- ISO
- LSO
Lesotho: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Lesotho, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 48 / 100
5y
- 26 Climate Low
- 24 Nature -0.6 Low
- 49 Social Medium
- 74 Governance High
- 70 Adaptation +1.3 High
Which hazards threaten Lesotho most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 2.1FloodLow
Lesotho in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
5
Southern Africa
#5 of 5 · median 4614
Africa
#14 of 54 · median 5324
Lower middle income
#24 of 53 · median 49Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Lesotho: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Lesotho is projected to warm +3.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +20 mm.
+20 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +37 mm → +20 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +8 mm → +11 mm
Driest month -2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
22%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 22%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 0% → 22%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.
1%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 1% → 1%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 1% → 0.8%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.6% today.
Sea level
Landlocked, not applicable.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Drought Index (SPEI) | 1.11 index | 77.8 |
Renewable Energy Share | 34.9 % of total energy | 64.0 |
Energy Intensity | 9.02 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 62.7 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 41.5 % population | 58.5 |
Land Surface Temperature | 22.8 deg C change | 55.7 |
Heating Degree Days | 4382 degree days | 30.1 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 23.4 ug/m3 | 23.1 |
Flood Risk | 2.10 0-10 | 21.0 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.24 kt CO2e per capita | 5.6 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 1.03 metric tons | 3.2 |
Cooling Degree Days | 116 degree days | 1.6 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 99.8 % of total | 0.2 |
Heat Index | 0.00 index | 0.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Forest Area | 1.14 % of land | 98.8 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.98 0-1 | 97.6 |
Agricultural Land | 80.1 % of land | 94.8 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.90 0-1 | 89.7 |
Paved Roads | 0.83 0-1 | 82.7 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.82 0-1 | 81.8 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.80 0-1 | 80.0 |
Protected Areas | 21.3 % of land | 78.5 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.78 0-1 | 77.9 |
Rural Population | 0.75 0-1 | 75.0 |
Food Production Index | 98.7 index | 74.1 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.73 0-1 | 72.8 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.71 0-1 | 71.1 |
Dam Capacity | 0.68 0-1 | 68.3 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.62 0-1 | 61.6 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.61 0-1 | 60.8 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.58 0-1 | 57.7 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.53 0-1 | 53.1 |
Electricity Access | 0.43 0-1 | 43.1 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.36 0-1 | 35.6 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.28 0-1 | 28.0 |
Slum Population | 0.26 0-1 | 25.8 |
Urban Concentration | 0.25 0-1 | 25.0 |
Projected Population Change | 0.25 0-1 | 24.6 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.22 0-1 | 21.7 |
Forest Depletion | 3.79 % of GNI | 21.6 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 6.64 % of GDP | 18.5 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 0.84 % of internal resources | 12.8 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.11 0-1 | 10.7 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.09 0-1 | 8.7 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 3.79 % of GNI | 6.6 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.03 0-1 | 3.3 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 4.00 count | 2.1 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.01 0-1 | 0.7 |
Water Stress | 2.57 % | 0.1 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Tree Cover Loss | 17.0 hectares | 0.0 |
Water Bodies Extent | 100 % of land | 0.0 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Life Expectancy | 57.4 years | 90.9 |
Safe Drinking Water | 28.2 % population | 76.5 |
Development and Deprivation | 7.30 0-10 | 73.0 |
Health Conditions | 7.30 0-10 | 73.0 |
Recent Shocks | 7.30 0-10 | 73.0 |
ESG Performance Score | 1.72 0-100 | 66.2 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 42.2 % | 64.0 |
Aid Dependency | 6.00 0-10 | 60.0 |
Internet Users | 48.0 % population | 58.5 |
Education Expenditure | 11.3 % of govt | 56.5 |
Net Migration | -5168 persons | 54.9 |
Sanitation Access | 47.5 % population | 53.9 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 58.9 per 1,000 | 50.7 |
GDP Growth | 1.83 % annual | 50.6 |
Primary School Enrollment | 86.4 % gross | 50.6 |
Unemployment Rate | 16.5 % | 46.7 |
Access to Electricity | 57.3 % population | 45.1 |
Labor Participation | 60.0 % (15+) | 44.2 |
Food Security | 4.00 0-10 | 40.0 |
Overweight Adults | 42.3 % adults | 39.5 |
Children Under 5 | 3.70 0-10 | 37.0 |
Fertility Rate | 2.69 births per woman | 36.5 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 16.0 % | 35.6 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 72.3 ratio F/M | 33.2 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 82.0 % | 24.7 |
School Gender Parity | 1.04 ratio | 22.8 |
Uprooted People | 1.20 0-10 | 12.0 |
Aging Population | 3.83 % population | 6.5 |
Population Density | 75.3 people/km2 | 0.4 |
Patent Applications | 1.00 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 48.0 count | 100.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.95 -2.5 to +2.5 | 69.1 |
Healthcare Access | 6.60 0-10 | 66.0 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.30 0-10 | 63.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.59 -2.5 to +2.5 | 61.8 |
Control of Corruption | -0.51 -2.5 to +2.5 | 60.2 |
Rule of Law | -0.48 -2.5 to +2.5 | 59.6 |
Legal Rights Strength | 5.00 0-12 | 58.3 |
Women in Parliament | 26.4 % seats | 56.8 |
Political Stability | -0.31 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.1 |
Voice and Accountability | 0.03 -2.5 to +2.5 | 49.4 |
Communication Infrastructure | 4.30 0-10 | 43.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.00 0-1 | 99.8 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.06 0-1 | 94.3 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.21 0-1 | 79.1 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.31 0-1 | 69.2 |
Doing Business Score | 0.34 0-1 | 66.2 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.38 0-1 | 61.9 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.39 0-1 | 61.2 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.41 0-1 | 58.5 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.52 0-1 | 48.3 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Lesotho →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Lesotho.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Lesotho?
Lesotho: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 48 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Lesotho's risk?
Lesotho's highest pressures are governance (74, high) and adaptation (70). Its strongest area is nature (24).
How might Lesotho's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 17% of Lesotho's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 75 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Lesotho warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Lesotho is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +20 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.2 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Lesotho?
The share of Lesotho under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 22% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Lesotho?
The share of Lesotho exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.6% today to 1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Lesotho's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.