Criora

eSwatini

Region Africa Subregion Southern Africa Income Lower middle income ISO SWZ

eSwatini sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is eSwatini, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
46 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    22 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    31 / 100
    ▼ -1.3 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    37 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    73 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    69 / 100
    ▲ + 2.3 5y
Climate futures

eSwatini: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, eSwatini is projected to warm +2.8 °C, with annual rainfall changing +28 mm.

Temperature

+2.8 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+1.8 °C → +2.8 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.4 °C → +1.8 °C

Hottest month +2.6 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+28 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+29 mm → +28 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+45 mm → +21 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

0%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0
0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

River flooding

2.1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
2.1% → 2.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
2.1% → 2%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.1% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten eSwatini most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Very low
1.8 / 10
DRR capacity
Medium
4.0 / 10
Peers

eSwatini in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Southern Africa
#3 of 5median 46
  1. 1South AfricaMedium 41
  2. 2BotswanaMedium 44
  3. 3eSwatiniMedium 46
  4. 4NamibiaMedium 47
  5. 5LesothoMedium 48
region
Africa
#9 of 54median 53
  1. 5São Tomé and PrincipeMedium 43
  2. 6BotswanaMedium 44
  3. 7RwandaMedium 45
  4. 8TunisiaMedium 46
  5. 9eSwatiniMedium 46
  6. 10NamibiaMedium 47
  7. 11MoroccoMedium 48
  8. 12GabonMedium 48
  9. 13LesothoMedium 48
  10. 14Eq. GuineaMedium 49
income group
Lower middle income
#18 of 53median 49
  1. 14TongaMedium 46
  2. 15KiribatiMedium 46
  3. 16Sri LankaMedium 46
  4. 17MoldovaMedium 46
  5. 18eSwatiniMedium 46
  6. 19Marshall Is.Medium 47
  7. 20MicronesiaMedium 47
  8. 21Timor-LesteMedium 47
  9. 22MoroccoMedium 48
  10. 23LesothoMedium 48

Put two countries head to head

Compare eSwatini against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is eSwatini?
eSwatini sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 46 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives eSwatini's risk?
eSwatini's highest pressures are governance (73, high) and adaptation (69). Its strongest area is climate (22).
How might eSwatini's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 32% of eSwatini's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 72 to 71 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will eSwatini warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), eSwatini is on track to warm by +2.8 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +28 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in eSwatini?
The share of eSwatini under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in eSwatini?
The share of eSwatini exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.1% today to 2.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was eSwatini's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.